December 23, 2015 at 8:43 pm #203714
In 2001 Crowe, on his way to Oscar Glory hit a speed bumb at the Globes in a tight race loosing to Hanks for “Castaway”. But things looked better for Crowe in 2002 when he won the Globe before eventually loosing the Oscar to Washington in “Training Day”. After seven losses in a variety of categories Spacey finally won and taught all of his fellow actors a valuable lesson if you drop the “F” bomb in your speech and direct it at the Hollywood Foreign Press they will not invite you back.
Last year Iniarritu, lost all three of his Globe races but was victorious at the Oscars. Now he’s back in two categories and I’m starting to think he might be Ridley Scott’s biggest competition and likeliest up setter at the Globes. Currently in 4th on Goldderby’s charts is it possible with another great film and being completely shut out last year he could pull out a victory. I think he’s Scotts biggest competition.December 23, 2015 at 9:18 pm #203716
Interesting theory. I do wonder if they won’t go for Todd Haynes, whose film is the most nominated of any this year and is seen as an underdog in most categories besides perhaps Score (but it frankly wouldn’t be a typical choice musically for HFPA voters).
AGI still won for Screenplay last year, and Babel won Best Picture of 2006 (lol).December 29, 2015 at 7:00 am #203717
I was just looking at the past Golden Globe nominees in this category (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Globe_Award_for_Best_Director), and I noticed that they haven’t matched up perfectly with the Oscars since 1980, though in 1983, all 5 Oscar nominees received Globe nominations, with the snubbed Barbara Streisand winning for Yentl. While, on paper, it does look likely that the 5 will match up this year, history tells us that at least one will likely be dropped.
As for winning this category this year, it’s a toss up between Ridley Scott and George Miller, but I’m sticking with Ridley for now.December 29, 2015 at 7:30 am #203718
Inarritu won best screenplay at the globes last year. They may feel he is overdue a best director prize for not getting one when Babel won best drama picture, for that reason I’d put the likelihood of winning this year pretty close between Miller, McCarthy and Inarritu, with the edge slightly with Miller.December 29, 2015 at 11:04 am #203719
I will be happy if Haynes, McCarthy or Scott wins; unhappy if Inarritu or Miller wins. So I have a 60% chance of happiness, since there is no clear frontrunner and ANY of these five could win.
My order of preference:
1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
2. Todd Haynes, Carol
3. Ridley Scott, The Martian
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
5. George Miller, Mad Max Fury Road
Wishing Lenny Abrahamson were one of the nominees, since I am rooting for him to win the Oscar (:December 30, 2015 at 2:23 am #203720
Iñárritu is getting the make-up. If The Revenant were better, they would make it up to him in picture as well.December 30, 2015 at 3:31 am #203721
I think Tom McCarthy is having the edge here. The only film getting Picture, Director and Screenplay nomination is Spotlight. But I think he won’t win the Oscar. It is too difficult not to vote for Ridley Scott in the Oscar as the narrative is too strong. He directed a Best Picture and is 78 now (probably his last shot).December 30, 2015 at 5:05 am #203722
Either Scott or Miller (My guess) wins this.December 30, 2015 at 8:26 am #203723
I have George Miller right now. I think this is where they will award Mad Max. Granted I do not have any film winning more than one and there’s usually at least one that does, so I may rethink some things.January 5, 2016 at 4:05 am #203724
I think Tom McCarthy is having the edge here. The only film getting Picture, Director and Screenplay nomination is Spotlight. But I think he won’t win the Oscar. It is too difficult not to vote for Ridley Scott in the Oscar as the narrative is too strong. He directed a Best Picture and is 78 now (probably his last shot).
Robert Altman was 77 by the time he was nominated for Gosford Park and even though he seemed to have the actors on his side, he still lost. Why do you think Ridley will be any different? Not to mention that he never won a directing Globe, so any sentiment there as well?