Golden Globes – what did they tell us.

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  • Shawshank
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    #132679

    So what did we learn from the globes ? Well it seems as though the HFP wanted to spread the love with the awards. Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years A Slave and American Hustle all winning Big Awards….As well as Leo for his comedy performance, as he put it which was great; for The Wolf Of Wall Street.

    Taking the results as face face value it would seem that Hustle is building up momentum heading towards thursday’s Nominations. Maybe for the first time for a number of years we have a pretty open race for the main awards which is a positive to all. It seems that there is no certainty (Jared Apart), so the coming month looks as though is could change things as we head to the big evening.

    I think we can say that the big moves were McConaughey and Adams the latter being a little more of a surprise. 12 Years looks as though the only award it could win is Best Picture and that would be all out of the big 4. As for Hustle I think the Best Director race is now very interesting as Russell I think will be close to pipping Cuaron.

    I still think the Best Supporting Actress will go to Lupita and this is purely on instinct. Lawrence has dominated recently I just have this nagging doubt in the back of my head that voters may be protective of giving her 2 oscars in 2 years. Whether that is fair or not I leave to you to decide. The quote in her acceptance speech of ‘Please don’t do this to me again’ may have a negative effect.

    I have no doubt that 12 Years A Slave will do very well at BAFTA next month and that Chewitel will be a lock for Best Actor and then that probably turns the Best actor race between him and Matthew.

    All in all there are far more twists and turns ahead and at this stage apart from Jared; I would not be confident in trying to predict tomorrow never mind the rest of the main Oscar award winners………Good isnt it 🙂 

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    TomHardys
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    #132681

    I think it confirmed that McConaughey is not as vulnerable as most people think. Chiwetel Ejiofor is clearly an HFPA favorite (previously nominated and two-times nominee last Sunday) so if he didn’t win it was because McConaughey had the edge.

    Lupita is going to take the Oscar in my opinion.

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #132682

    I think that it actually showed Gravity was being overestimated. While it picked up Director, it lost in picture, actress and score. While it will get many nominations, I think it will only have success in the technical categories, because it hasn’t recieved any Picture awards other than the people’s choice award. I think this was its chance to be a legitimate contender for Picture, but I don’t think it has a chance anymore. 12 years stole its momentum with that last win, even if it was its only one.

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    pacinofan
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    #132683

    I think that it actually showed Gravity was being overestimated. While it picked up Director, it lost in picture, actress and score. While it will get many nominations, I think it will only have success in the technical categories, because it hasn’t recieved any Picture awards other than the people’s choice award. I think this was its chance to be a legitimate contender for Picture, but I don’t think it has a chance anymore. 12 years stole its momentum with that last win, even if it was its only one.

    “Gravity” tied for best picture with “Her” at the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards and also won their awards for best director and some technical prizes.

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    Malick
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    #132684

    I think it confirmed that McConaughey is not as vulnerable as most people think. Chiwetel Ejiofor is clearly an HFPA favorite (previously nominated and two-times nominee last Sunday) so if he didn’t win it was because McConaughey had the edge.

    Lupita is going to take the Oscar in my opinion.

    True. Looks like Matthew will be a formidable contender. Now it’s a 3-horse race between, Ejiofor, Dern and McConaughey. I think the globes also confirmed that 12 Years “is going to be very tough to beat for best picture” (Scott Feinberg quote).

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    Benedick
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    #132685

    I don’t see how that was confirmed as it didn’t manage to win anything else. Best Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress all went to other films. With the Best Pictures, Screenplay, and Director all going to different films, the only thing the Globes confirmed imo is that this year is far from settled. 

    And again, this is only a group of some 100 non-industry people…we know nothing real until the PGA. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #132686

    In the last decade, more GG drama best film winners have lost than won BP. This keeps 12 Yrs alive, but unless it wins PG, it will note be remotely very tough to beat. Scott Feinberg is only spouting nonsense.

    If any film is frontrunner now, it is American Hustle. But if so, only barely. 

    Between 2003-2012, these non BP winners won GG Drama:
    The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, Babel, Atonement, Avatar, The Social Network, The Descendants 

    That’s 7 out of 10. So if one is using winning this award as a precursor (which is nonsense) then it would suggest 12 Years won’t win.

    I don’t use it as a precursor, so I will keep 12 Yrs as a close co-favorite as I have for months.    

     

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    Malick
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    #132687

    I don’t see how that was confirmed as it didn’t manage to win anything else. Best Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress all went to other films. With the Best Pictures, Screenplay, and Director all going to different films, the only thing the Globes confirmed imo is that this year is far from settled. 

    And again, this is only a group of some 100 non-industry people…we know nothing real until the PGA. 

    You gotta read the whole Feinberg piece over at the hollywood reporter. He makes some valid points. Plus Hustle winning comedy over 4 lesser contenders isn’t nearly as impressive as the last minute 12 years picture win over the very formidable Gravity.

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    Renaton
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    #132688

    In the last decade, more GG drama best film winners have lost than won BP. This keeps 12 Yrs alive, but unless it wins PG, it will note be remotely very tough to beat. Scott Feinberg is only spouting nonsense.

    If any film is frontrunner now, it is American Hustle. But if so, only barely. 

    Between 2003-2012, these non BP winners won GG Drama:
    The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, Babel, Atonement, Avatar, The Social Network, The Descendants 

    That’s 7 out of 10. So if one is using winning this award as a precursor (which is nonsense) then it would suggest 12 Years won’t win.

    I don’t use it as a precursor, so I will keep 12 Yrs as a close co-favorite as I have for months.    

     

    The Descendants lost, but the GG comedy winner (The Artist) won. Otherwise, you’re right that most of the time in the past decade the GG winners have gone to lose the Oscar, which is especially important to consider when they have two Picture categories. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #132689

    It’s people who months ago with minimal evidence (some legitimate of course) who declared 12 Yrs the easy winner now trying to push their early choice so they won’t look like fools.

    Here’s the case I’d make – the other losses showed they had no enthusiasm for 12 Yrs, but felt, particularly as a group of non-Americans, that they had a duty to award it best film. And there is a chance that the consensus at the Academy (as proven by some winners in the past) might react the same, not discounting the film’s merit and clearly some members who do clearly think it is worthy.

    But the HFPA consists of 84 nonentities. There were 5 nominees, some others than could have won. 12 Yrs might have had 24 votes, Gravity 23 for all we know. To leap forward, and not include recent GG history, and use this win as evidence that it has returned to strong favorite is, to be generous, premature, as would have been ruling it out had it lost. And if Gravity had won, I’d be writing the exact same thing.    

    One thing the GGs did is reassert that this is a muddled race. And that in the end might help 12 Yrs win as a default choice, if Gravity, Amer Hustle and Capt Phillips (the only other conceivable winners) don’t amass enough support. I don’t think that in a head to race a la King’s Speech (wildly popular) vs TSN (widely acclaimed, not loved) it would prevail. But if none of the other contenders gathers sufficient momentum (and one might still), then 12 Yrs’ chances improve. It clearly is a significant contender, as I’ve said since the start. Just not the overwhelming favorite. 

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    Riley
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    #132690

    Up: Matthew McConaughey, All is Lost (in audio-related categories), The Great Beauty, U2
    Down: Chiwetel Ejiofor, The Hunt
    I predicted the rest, so nothing else changes.

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    Malick
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    #132691

    Regardless of whatever unprove assumptions some users wanna make, at the end of the day a win is a win and it can only help a films cause. 12 years now has one televised oscar precursor win under it’s belt and could easily add more. We’ve got ourselves an interesting race going on.

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    Scottferguson
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    #132692

    Thanks for stating the obvious. Clearly a win is a win. No disagreement there. But there is zero evidence that it is a significant win, other than if it had loss the same media fools would be crying “the end is near, the end is near” with just as little justification.

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    Malick
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    #132693

    So where the disagreement lies is in the significance of the award. Will know soon enough. And lets stick to facts if possible from here on out
    since almost all of what you’ve said in your two posts cannot be proven.
    Its just you trying as you always do to turn your opinions into facts
    on GD.

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    Scottferguson
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    #132694

    That’s not true. The only I stated was that 7 of the last 10 GG drama winners didn’t win BP. Is that wrong? My opinion, based on all available facts – not the bloviating by so-called Oscar “experts”, of whom there are very few, as year after year proves – is this is a very muddled race with no clear frontrunner. Many of these same experts called Redford the frontrunner to win Best Actor for months, and Winfrey a near lock for supporting actress. Are we supposed to take what they say seriously? I don’t.

    And 3 years ago, when TSN won the GG drama award, beating The King’s Speech, after previously sweeping nearly every other award of importance, I said the same thing – that TSN was not a lock to win BP. You and others mocked me for that opinion at that time.

    My track record around here is pretty damn good. I know that makes you jealous, but I can live with it.   

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