February 24, 2014 at 4:49 pm #142940
For those of you that didn’t see my posts in the other threads, over the
years I’ve become associated with a bunch of voting Academy members
(this year the number of them was 42, it fluctuates every year since
some voters don’t vote every year) and they share their choices with me
every year. Using their information, I’ve been able to see (somewhat)
surprising wins from the likes of Juliette Binoche and Judi Dench, and
have been able to correctly predict close races such as Sean Penn the
first time and Meryl Streep the third time. Here is the info I’ve
gathered this year.
Disclaimer: I would advise all of you to not base your predictions on these accounts. The choices of 42 voters may or may not be telling of the choices of the body of 6,000+ voters as a whole. Do remember that many of them were wrong about Blue Jasmine getting into Best Picture.
Picture: I made the mistake of not asking for full rankings (as is
needed for predicting a preferential ballot), so much of this
information may not be of much use. But among #1 votes, American Hustle has the slight edge, followed by 12 Years a Slave and Philomena which also have significant pockets of support.
Best Actor: Again, this may or may not
be telling of the Academy as a whole, but McConaughey was not mentioned
once. Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bruce Dern were about even, with Leonardo
DiCaprio a medium-sized margin behind. One passionate American Hustle supporter chose Bale. But no mention of McConaughey is quite surprising, especially when you get to supporting actor.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett’s to lose. Even the passionate Hustle supporters chose her. A few mentions of Judi Dench were few and far between.
Director: Cuaron is this year’s victim of “I really liked his work, but
so-and-so did such a great job!” The beneficiary of many of these
remarks was Russell, who had a surprisingly comfortable lead with this
group, though McQueen also had a lot of support and Cuaron did get many
mentions. I really expected this to be a walk for Cuaron, now I do not
think this category is as much of a done deal as it is being made out to
Best Supporting Actor: This appears to be the go-to award for the well-liked Dallas Buyers Club as Leto has the lead. If you’ve read this whole thing through then you could probably predict that many Hustle
supporters named Cooper as their choice, as he had the second-most
votes (though by a sizeable margin). None of the other nominees were
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Hawkins was the runaway
with this group. Yes, you read that correctly. In hindsight this
shouldn’t be too surprising as this is the same group of voters that
foamed at the mouth over Blue Jasmine, but she was the biggest
sweep of the acting categories from this group. The only other nominee
who was mentioned was Lawrence, and let’s just say that the number of
voters who chose her was in the single-digits. If Hawkins had received a
SAG nomination and one or two critics awards, I would predict her to be
the upset of the night.
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle won out here, with Her a very close second. Nebraska had a few mentions (surprisingly, many voters in this sample assumed Payne wrote the screenplay).
Best Adapted Screenplay: A fairly even split between 12 Years a Slave and Philomena. Before Midnight had significant support and many said they expected it to win even though they weren’t voting for it.
I don’t spend a lot of time on the other categories, but I will share the following:
-Best Song is a nearly even four-way split. “Happy” was the winner by one vote.
–Gravity is the overwhelming favorite for Best Score and Best Visual Effects.
–12 Years a Slave is being underestimated for Best Costumes and Best Art Direction.
-Best Editing was another nearly even split between American Hustle and Gravity.
Hope y’all enjoyed this. I’ll be doing final predictions by the end of the week. Good luck!February 24, 2014 at 4:55 pm #142942
GJ – thx for this, but we have a lengthy thread already about reports of members’ choices, which I’ll bump, and in which you’d be a terrific additionFebruary 24, 2014 at 4:56 pm #142943
Sally Hawkins having that much support is surprising. I wonder how many voters popped in the Blue Jasmine screener to see Cate but were simultaneously wow-ed by Sally. Upset that Squibb got no mentions.
Personally I think a David O. Russell win over Steve McQueen, Alfonso Cuaron and even Martin Scorsese (and maybe even Alexander Payne) would be shameful. Not because the film is bad (I actually think its direction is its major asset) but the other three blew him away.February 24, 2014 at 4:56 pm #142944
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Hawkins was the runaway with this group. Yes, you read that correctly. In hindsight this shouldn’t be too surprising as this is the same group of voters that foamed at the mouth over Blue Jasmine, but she was the biggest sweep of the acting categories from this group. The only other nominee who was mentioned was Lawrence, and let’s just say that the number of voters who chose her was in the single-digits. If Hawkins had received a SAG nomination and one or two critics awards, I would predict her to be the upset of the night.
Ah! A tease. Sally Hawkins would get my vote. Now I might want to predict her lol.February 24, 2014 at 5:01 pm #142945
On Payne & Nebraska SP – been saying for weeks that this indeed might be a go-to place for voters who love Nebraska and want to award Payne, not realizing he didn’t write it.February 24, 2014 at 5:05 pm #142946
Scottferguson, do you think Nebraska’s screenplay has a better chance than June Squibb winning?February 24, 2014 at 5:08 pm #142947
I think Squibb is much less of a longshot than the script – I wrote earlier that the latter was at about 5% (could be low) chance, I’d peg Squibb around 20%February 24, 2014 at 5:34 pm #142948
Thanks for your insights once again grandma.February 24, 2014 at 5:36 pm #142949
Any group that’s showing Hawkins some love are friends of mine.February 24, 2014 at 5:38 pm #142950
I’m so excited!!! Sally Hawkins can actually win this thing!February 24, 2014 at 5:40 pm #142951
I’m so excited!!! Sally Hawkins can actually win this thing!
I’m gonna be in public IF she pulls this off. Gonna have to control myself.February 24, 2014 at 5:42 pm #142952
It seems crazy but the majority of the voters who went public with their choices chose Sally Hawkins……. I’m happy 🙂February 24, 2014 at 5:58 pm #142954
I went out on a limb to predict Russell last year for BD. I thought he could benefit when no one wanted to vote for Spielberg and Life of Pi not having the enthusiasm of Silver Linings Playbook. Not this year though. I’d be shocked if he wins over McQueen and Cuaron.February 24, 2014 at 6:15 pm #142955
Your getting my hopes up for a Hawkins upset.
She’s really the only nominee in the category who I’d call worthy of the win.
And boy would that be a DIE Mia Farrow Die move if both she and Blanchett win.