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Guild Awards vs. Oscars since 1995

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  • Daniel B.
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 22nd, 2010
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    Posts:
    #50755

    Are Bridesmaids and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo guaranteed slots in the Oscars’ Best Picture race now that they nabbed nominations in 3 out of the 4 guild awards?

    Are The Tree of Life, Harry Potter, Drive, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, Melancholia, My Week with Marilyn, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy out of the race since they were left out of the running for the top prize at said guild awards?

    You
    might be surprised to see how many films overcame the odds to get a
    nomination, and how many sure-things were left off the top ballot come
    Oscar nominations…

    MOVIES THAT WEREN’T NOMINATED FOR BEST PICTURE
    Here
    is a list of films since 1995 (when the SAG Ensemble award was
    introduced) that received multiple top prize guild nominations, or won a
    top guild prize, but did not receive a Best Picture nomination at the
    Oscars:

    Get Shorty (1995) SAG, WGA
    Leaving Las Vegas (1995) DGA, WGA
    The Birdcage (1996) SAG win, WGA
    Sling Blade (1996) SAG, WGA win
    Amistad (1997) DGA, PGA
    Boogie Nights (1997) SAG, WGA
    Gods and Monsters (1998) WGA, PGA
    Out of Sight (1998) WGA win
    The Truman Show (1998) DGA, WGA
    Waking Ned (1998) SAG, PGA
    Being John Malkovich (1999) SAG, DGA, WGA, PGA
    Election (1998) WGA win
    Magnolia (1999) SAG, WGA
    Almost Famous (2000) SAG, DGA, WGA, PGA
    Billy Elliot (2000) SAG, WGA, PGA
    You Can Count on Me (2000) WGA win
    Black Hawk Down (2001) DGA, WGA
    Adaptation. (2002) SAG, WGA, PGA
    Bowling for Columbine (2002) WGA win
    My Big Fat Greek Wedding (2002) SAG, WGA, PGA
    American Splendor (2003) WGA win
    Cold Mountain (2003) WGA, PGA
    In America (2003) SAG, WGA
    The Station Agent (2003) SAG, WGA
    Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004) WGA win
    Hotel Rwanda (2004) SAG, WGA
    Dreamgirls (2006) SAG, DGA, PGA
    The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (2007) DGA, WGA, PGA
    Into the Wild (2007) SAG, DGA, WGA
    The Dark Knight (2008) DGA, WGA, PGA
    Doubt (2008) SAG, WGA
    Star Trek (2009) WGA, PGA
    The Town (2010) WGA, PGA

    MOVIES NOMINATED FOR BEST PICTURE
    Here
    is a list of films that managed an nomination for Best Picture, despite
    scoring only a single, or no top-prize guild nominations at all:

    Babe (1995) WGA
    The Postman (1995) DGA
    Elizabeth (1998) —
    The Thin Red Line
    (1998) DGA
    In the Bedroom (2001) SAG
    The Pianist (2002) DGA
    Munich (2005) DGA
    Letters from Iwo Jima (2006) —
    Atonement (2007) —
    The Reader
    (2008) —
    The Blind Side (2009) —
    District 9
    (2009) PGA
    A Serious Man (2009) WGA
    Up (2009) PGA
    Toy Story 3 (2010) PGA
    Winter’s Bone (2010) —

    Reply
    Daniel B.
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 22nd, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #50757

    ANALYSIS:

    I think that the PGA/SAG/WGA-nominated, wedding-themed, female-penned/starred comedy Bridesmaids will be this year’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding. No BP nom for Bridesmaids, but a Screenplay nomination is likely.

    Don’t count on any Rango or The Adventures of Tintin nominations in the BP race, either. Up and Toy Story 3 nabbed PGA nominations (as did Shrek, which didn’t land a BP nomination). No animated films have received top-prize guild nominations this year.

    Don’t let The Artist‘s lack of WGA nominations frighten you. Many films without WGA’s support have gone on to BP nominations, and since 1995, two have won (The King’s Speech and Gladiator).

    Even though The Descendants and Midnight in Paris both have all guilds won over with nominations, they aren’t guaranteed nominations. Being John Malkovich and Almost Famous were both 4 for 4 before they were snubbed in the race for Oscar’s top prize.  Mind you, I still think that The Descendants and Midnight in Paris will be nominated (the latter perhaps a bit more vulnerable, however).

    Don’t believe anyone who says that Moneyball is a lock for a nomination.  There might only be five nominations this year, and Moneyball isn’t even safe if there are guaranteed ten nominations.  With only 2 top-prize guild nominations under its belt, Lead Actor might end up being the film’s top Oscar nomination.

    A BP nomination for War Horse is still up in the air.  The guilds haven’t been especially kind to this Spielberg film (its only nod is from the PGA), but the man’s last drama flick (Munich) managed a Best Picture Oscar nomination despite only having the support of the DGA.  However, his films have been shut out of the top category with more support (Amistad was DGA and PGA-nominated).  It depends on if the number of BP nominees is closer to 5 or 10.

    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is still not a guarantee for the top prize, but its chances have definitely increased since the DGA nomination.  Only a few films have been shut out of the top prize after DGA support since 1995 (Leaving Las Vegas, Amistad, The Truman Show, Being John Malkovich, Almost Famous, Black Hawk Down, Memento, Dreamgirls, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Into the Wild, and The Dark Knight), although the amount of snubs for edgy/unconventional/action flicks isn’t promising.  But then again, David Fincher isn’t Christopher Nolan.

    50/50 = (500) Days of Summer? Both WGA-nominated films star Joseph Gordon-Levitt in a performance that landed him a Golden Globe nomination (but not an Oscar nod).  Perhaps Will Reiser is hoping the outcome isn’t too similar to the elder film, as (500) Days of Summer couldn’t land an Oscar nomination for either BP or Screenplay.

    J. Edgar probably won’t get nominated for Best Picture.  After Letters from Iwo Jima managed a surprise nomination, many though Eastwood was invincible. 2008 rolled around, and the much-anticipated, critic-dividing Changeling, as well as the surprise hit Gran Torino went without top prize nominations.  J. Edgar has been fairly divisive as well, and definitely didn’t live up to its expectations.  The difference between it and Letters from Iwo Jima are fairly clear: check out Rotten Tomatoes.

    Don’t count out The Iron Lady just yet.  The Blind Side and The Reader both managed to score surprise nominations without any guild support, likely on the heels of the support of Sandra Bullock and Kate Winslet’s eventual Oscar-winning performances.  Like The Blind Side and The Reader, the reviews for The Iron Lady as a whole have been very lukewarm, but the praise for the ladies’ performances were all strong enough to carry the rest of the film to the top race.

    Although it isn’t looking good for The Tree of Life, it’s not completely hopless for the flick to get a slot in the top category.  Every year since 2006, one of the BP nominees at the Oscars managed to get in without the support of any of the guilds (Letters fom Iwo Jima, Atonement, The Reader, The Blind Side, and Winter’s Bone).  There is still the possibility of a film that hasn’t received much guild support yet still cracking into the Best Picture race. Other contenders that fit into this category are: Albert Nobbs, Coriolanus, Drive, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Guard, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Melancholia, My Week with Marilyn, A Separation, Shame, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, We Need to Talk About Kevin

    ReplyCopy URL
    Richard LeBeau
    Member
    Joined:
    May 22nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #50758

    I think this year’s Best Picture nominee that gets in without any guild support is Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.  It’s peaking at the right time.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Richard LeBeau
    Member
    Joined:
    May 22nd, 2011
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    Posts:
    #50759

    Oh and thanks for doing this research!  

    ReplyCopy URL
    Riley
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 11th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #50760

    This is amazing!

    Thanks so much!

    ReplyCopy URL
    Madson Melo
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2011
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    Posts:
    #50761

    amazing job! the snub for ALMOST FAMOUS was really criminal.

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    Richard LeBeau
    Member
    Joined:
    May 22nd, 2011
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    Posts:
    #50762

    I did not realize that all of the guilds (rightfully) snubbed “The Reader.”  I still have trouble getting over how angry I got at the Academy for nominating that drivel.  

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    Anonymous
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202003403

    Leaving Las Vegas, Il Postino, Babe, The Thin Red Line, and The Truman Show all had PGA nominations. Waking Ned did not have a PGA nomination. The Pianist, Il Postino, The Artist, and The King’s Speech were ineligible for WGA, as opposed to be snubbed despite being eligible, as you seem to think.

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    Anonymous
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202003675

    In The Bedroom was also ineligible for WGA. Does being ineligible for WGA count? And did you do your research correctly?

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    BenitoDelicias
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 3rd, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202004138

    Pixar films are inelegible at WGA too. So was Winter’s bone. A lot of mistakes in that research, if you see a film that was very much in the race and ended up a BP nominee, it’s pretty mandatory to at least check elegibility with WGA as many films fail to meet their standard rules. It does’t take anything away from them or make them less likely or surprising BP nominees.

    Not that it isn’t appreciated, I didn’t know Almost Famous had it all going to the Oscars, what a ridiculous snub in favor of, I suppose, Harvey Weins…I mean Chocolat.

    I can imagine District 9 being inelegible for WGA too, considering Julie & Julia, Star Strek and Crazy Heart were nominated.

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    Anonymous
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202004628

    District 9 was indeed ineligible at WGA. Does anyone know if The Thin Red Line was ineligible at WGA?

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