September 14, 2012 at 12:23 am #69447
I have a feeling its going to one of the two next year. Who will win the Oscar for Supporting Actor?
If you think it won’t be one of the two, please specify who you think it might go to.
Thanks 🙂September 14, 2012 at 12:49 am #69449
Well no one has seen either performance so can’t really say, but let’s say both performances are exceptional and on level with each other, I can’t see the Academy ignoring DiCaprio again when Hoffman already has one.September 14, 2012 at 1:06 am #69450
What OnTheGo says, but I think if one of them should win, it will be Hoffman. Some of it will depend on the ‘theoretical communist’ spread the wealth mentality vote. But, not this time. Hoffman’s skill and charisma, DiCaprio’s relative youth and handsome looks, the political vibes these days, all tip the scale in Hoffman’s favour.
I cant begin to guess who will actually win at this point, and it may not be either of them.September 14, 2012 at 11:15 am #69451
I seriously think that Hoffman will campaigning as a co-lead with Phoenix, everyone who saw the movie said the he was a co-lead, that he couldn’t be place himself in supporting (and the last time that two actors from the same movie were nominated in Best Actor was in 84 for Amadeus) but again… Casey Affleck and Ethan Hawke proved that this can happen lolSeptember 14, 2012 at 11:30 am #69452
Mads – you are right that people try this nonsense and get away with it.
The Master is just such a more prominent film, Hoffman plays the title character (this isn’t a case like Last King of Scotland when either character could have been referred to at that – Phoenix is the student here), screen time is close (Phoenix likely with a slight edge), both have many scenes without the other, Hoffman dominates the scenes usually when they are on together. My guess is that Pheonix is on screen 85% of the time, Hoffman 80% (they have many, many scenes together).
Amy Adams, truly supporting, is on screen maybe 20% of the time.
It doesn’t mean that Weinstein might try this route with SAG and GGs. But major critics’ groups might vote Hoffman best actor, and even if not, I think a lot of acting branch members will reject this.September 14, 2012 at 12:14 pm #69453
If they both go lead, in terms of strategy, it would only result in Daniel Day Lewis or Denzel Washington winning again.
I also believe people are getting way ahead of themselves in predicting DiCaprio not only for a nomination, but a win. The film was still being rewritten and re-shot not long ago. This film has been rushed and stitched together, if reports are true, so I don’t see DiCaprio being a major threat quite just yet.September 14, 2012 at 12:53 pm #69454
I think it will be difficult for Hoffman to be pushed into supporting actor for the Oscars because I believe at least some of the critics’ awards will give best actor to the duo of Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix just like the Venice Film Festival jury did.September 14, 2012 at 12:53 pm #69455
I think it will be difficult for Hoffman to be pushed into supporting actor for the Oscars because I believe at least some of the critics’ awards will give best actor to the duo of Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix just like the Venice Film Festival jury did.September 14, 2012 at 1:42 pm #69456
Different critics groups have different rules, but I don’t know of any precedent for a joint (for more than one actor from same film) award to be given. A group likely would have to suspend their rules in advance of the voting and then ask for a majority vote to do this. In many cases, their rules might specifically rule it out.
Film festival juries can do this. I know the Tonys in a couple cases have done this (I don’t think this is that kind of situation though) in their nominations.
This all goes back to the baseless separation of acting awards by gender. It is only because of both being lead, both being male, that this comes up. If all lead performances had to compete equally, as they should without the arbitrary division by gender, two leads from the same performance would compete regularly.September 14, 2012 at 2:03 pm #69457
Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon got 2nd place at the NYFCC for Thelma and Louise, and they both won the NBR award together as well.September 14, 2012 at 2:07 pm #69458
Seriously, Hoffman will be nominated for lead actor for sure!!!
DiCaprio looks like hes going to be left out yet again…He just doesnt
look right when the film is not present tense…he was left out of
TITANIC, GANGS OF NEW YORK, J. EDGAR…possibly because
he looks too modern in every film or possibly because he aint all that good!!!September 14, 2012 at 2:30 pm #69459
The Aviator was set in the past and Leo received a nom.
As for this question, maybe a Lincoln supporting actor (Tommy Lee Jones or David Strathairn) wins.
TBD for sure!September 14, 2012 at 2:41 pm #69460
Great catches Logan – the NBR doesn’t surprise me (they preplan some of their awards, in the past more than now).
Was the NYFC a tie, or do the records indicate they were voted on as a unit? That honestly would shock me if it happened.September 14, 2012 at 3:25 pm #69461
I think DiCaprio. I know its too early to say yet, but Weinstein is going to put most of his backing on Leo to win for Supporting Actor. What helps DiCaprio is the fact that he is playing a showy villain role, and you know Tarantino is going to have made many showy scenes for him.September 14, 2012 at 4:49 pm #69462
The reviews for THE MASTER are mostly raves.
DiCaprio doesn’t stand a chance against that.
I am not a big fan of PTA–I couldn’t decide if MAGNOLIA was a brilliant masterwork or a stinking load of crap–perhaps both! But I like Tarantino even less…