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How do ODDS work?

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  • seabel
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    #94939

    I see at GoldDerby main page that there are ODDS in every category, and numbers like 21/5 or 1/11. Can somebody explain me this? How does this work?

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    Scottferguson
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    #94941

    It’s an antiquated, confusing and often inprecise system that could easily be translated into % chance of winning.

    It has to do with is you put up X amount of $ (the second number) if you win you get Y amount in winnings (the first number).

    Odds almost always though come with a share for the house, which should never be part of the equation unless one is going through a bookie.    

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    seabel
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    #94942

    Well, that’s definitely CONFUSING.

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    Scottferguson
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    #94943

    If you grow up around racetracks, one can sort of get how they relate.

    The formula:

    Fractional odds

    Fractional odds are generally the most traditional form of expressing betting odds. They are a simple reflection of the return you will receive for a particular amount bet. So for example, the odds of 5/2 (expressed as 5 to 2) means that for every 2 units that you bet, you will receive 5 back.

    To convert fractional odds into their respective probabilities, we make the following calculation.

     

     

     

    So in our example of odds of 5/2.

    Implied probability = 2 / (5 + 2)

    Implied probability = 2 / 7

    Implied probability = 0.286

    Multiplied then by 100 to express as a implied probability percentage of 28.6%     

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    seabel
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    #94944

    But do experts actually win money with this? Why don’t they go with %? It’s universal.

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    Scottferguson
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    #94945

    Since the interest with so many events – sports in particular (hello NCAA) rotates around people betting money, a lot of people like to see it this way, so they like to see the risk/benefit ratio as clearly as possible.

    Curiously, football better has gone more into the line (the favorite and the margin of victory) because it puts everything into a 50% level of likelihood, much easier to understand. 

    I am a strong advocate of translating into % chance because it is much easier to grasp, and expresses the relationships among the contenders much more clearly. And you can be sure the person creating the odds actually comes up to 100%, which as I said quite often odds don’t do. 

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    seabel
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    #94946

    yeah, that would be great. at least we have a normal ranking (1-5) before each name.

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    Bill Buchanan
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    #94947

    Yeah, I never did like the odds thing. So confusing. I wish the default mode were percentage.

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    Logan
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    #94948

    If you grow up around racetracks, one can sort of get how they relate.

    So in our example of odds of 5/2.

    Implied probability = 2 / (5 + 2)

    Implied probability = 2 / 7

    Implied probability = 0.286

    Multiplied then by 100 to express as a implied probability percentage of 28.6%

    This is the first time I’ve understood what they mean. It’s actually so simple.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #94949

    If you grow up around racetracks, one can sort of get how they relate.

    The formula:

    Fractional odds

    Fractional odds are generally the most traditional form of expressing betting odds. They are a simple reflection of the return you will receive for a particular amount bet. So for example, the odds of 5/2 (expressed as 5 to 2) means that for every 2 units that you bet, you will receive 5 back.

    To convert fractional odds into their respective probabilities, we make the following calculation.

     

     

     

    So in our example of odds of 5/2.

    Implied probability = 2 / (5 + 2)

    Implied probability = 2 / 7

    Implied probability = 0.286

    Multiplied then by 100 to express as a implied probability percentage of 28.6%     

    Damn, dude. You must be a math wiz. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #94950

    No, not a math whiz – I just know how to search on google & then copy & paste.

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