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How likely are each of this year’s acting nominees to be nominated again?

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  • Beau S.
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    #142343

    If you had to assign a % chance to each of this year’s acting nominees for their likelihood to return to the Oscar race in the future, what would they be?

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    Beau S.
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    #142345

    Mine (in alphabetical order):

    Barkhad Abdi – 45%
    Amy Adams – 100%
    Christian Bale – 85%
    Cate Blanchett – 100%
    Sandra Bullock – 80%
    Bradley Cooper – 85%
    Judi Dench – 50%
    Bruce Dern – 55%
    Leonardo DiCaprio – 95%
    Chiwetel Ejiofor – 80%
    Michael Fassbender – 85%
    Sally Hawkins – 60%
    Jonah Hill – 90%
    Jennifer Lawrence – 100%
    Jared Leto – 15% (who knows the next time he’ll make a film?)
    Matthew McConaughey – 100%
    Lupita Nyong’o – 70%
    Julia Roberts – 80%
    June Squibb – 30% (would love to be proven wrong)
    Meryl Streep – 100%

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    Riley
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    #142346
    1. Meryl Streep
    2. Jennifer Lawrence
    3. Amy Adams
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio
    5. Matthew McConaughey
    6. Cate Blanchett
    7. Judi Dench
    8. Bradley Cooper
    9. Christian Bale
    10. Jonah Hill
    11. Michael Fassbender
    12. Sandra Bullock
    13. Julia Roberts
    14. Sally Hawkins
    15. Lupita Nyong’o
    16. Chiwetel Ejiofor
    17. Bruce Dern
    18. Jared Leto
    19. Barkhad Abdi
    20. June Squibb
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    Gabriel
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    #142347

    June Squibb, Bruce Dern, Barkhad Abdi : 0% Hope I’m wrong, though.

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    Alijah Purdy
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    #142348

    Not assigning percents to them, but rather going to place them in 3 different categories.

    DEFINITELY Getting Nominated Again:
    Amy Adams
    Cate Blanchett
    Judi Dench
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Meryl Streep

    Likely:
    Christian Bale
    Sandra Bullock
    Bradley Cooper
    Michael Fassbender
    Jonah Hill
    Matthew McConaughey
    Lupita Nyongo

    Unlikely:
    Barkhad Abdi
    Bruce Dern
    Chiwetel Ejiofer
    Sally Hawkins
    Jared Leto
    Julia Roberts
    June Squibb

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    Alijah Purdy
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    #142349

    Also, if I had to rank them in order of most likely to least likely to get nominated again:

    1. Meryl Streep
    2. Judi Dench
    3. Cate Blanchett
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio
    5. Jennifer Lawrence
    6. Amy Adams
    7. Sandra Bullock
    8. Lupita Nyongo
    9. Matthew McConaughey
    10. Bradley Cooper
    11. Christian Bale
    12. Jonah Hill
    13. Michael Fassbender
    14. Julia Roberts
    15. Chiwetel Ejiofer
    16. Sally Hawkins
    17. Jared Leto
    18. Bruce Dern
    19. June Squibb
    20. Barkhad Abdi

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    Jonathan
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    #142350

    DEFINITELY Getting Nominated Again:
    Amy Adams (probably next year)
    Cate Blanchett
    Leonardo DiCaprio (though it will take too long)
    Jennifer Lawrence (though if she wins, perhaps after a long drought)
    Meryl Streep
    Christian Bale

    Likely:

    Michael Fassbender (he needs to play the game)
    Matthew McConaughey (if he sticks with the new career path)

    Possible:   
    Sally Hawkins
    Julia Roberts
    Lupita Nyongo (hopefully)
    Jonah Hill
    Judi Dench (she’s not making many more films…)  
    Sandra Bullock
    Bradley Cooper (really not sure… the bubble could burst quickly)
     
     Unlikely:
    Barkhad Abdi
    Bruce Dern
    Chiwetel Ejiofer (though I’d like to be wrong)
    Jared Leto (he’s the male version of Mira Sorvino)
    June Squibb

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    Morgan Henard
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    #142351

    The one nominee I don’t see making it back to an Oscar race is June Squibb, but i certainly don’t mind being proven wrong. Perhaps Lupita Nyong’o – whether she wins or loses – but, again, I would like to be proven wrong. The same can be said for Jared Leto. Unless he puts his music career on hold and goes into film (or television?) full time. I was going to mention Bruce Dern, but Nebraska proves he’s still around. I was thrilled to see Christopher Plummer nominated for The Last Station but once he lost, I thought, “That’s it. There’s his one career nomination.” Then bam — Two years later, he’s nominated, and sweeps the category the entire season. I could see the same thing happening with Dern.  

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    DominicCobb
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    #142352

    1. Jennifer Lawrence
    2. Amy Adams
    3. Meryl Streep
    4. Leonardo DiCaprio
    5. Matthew McConaughey
    6. Michael Fassbender
    7. Cate Blanchett
    8. Christian Bale
    9. Bruce Dern
    10. Chiwetel Ejiofor
    11. Judi Dench
    12. Lupita Nyong’o
    13. Jonah Hill
    14. Bradley Cooper
    15. Julia Roberts
    16. Sally Hawkins
    17. Sandra Bullock
    18. June Squibb
    19. Jared Leto
    20. Barkhad Abdi

    Of these, Adams, Streep, McConaughey, Fassbender, and Cooper all have a chance to be nominated again just next year, with Adams and McConaughey being the most likely (which would make Adams a nominee in three consecutive years – and an almost certain winner).

    If McConaughey or Cooper don’t get nominated again soon, I could see their careers slipping back into trashy stuff and never finding their way back to the race.

    I think if Bruce Dern, Judi Dench, or June Squibb come out with another worthy film/performance, the chances of them being nominated (and maybe even winning) is extremely high.

    Jonah Hill might be the biggest question mark here. He’s definitely got some chops, but will he continue to use them? And have his two nominations been freak occurences, or is the Academy oddly in love with him and will we see him nominated for every film in contention ala Meryl Streep? It would be kind of sad for him if he just got two random nominations in the span of three years and then never came back. 

    Ejiofor, Nyong’o, and Abdi really depends on whether they will get good roles in the future. Which is really a sad fact about the opportunities for black actors.

    Roberts, Bullock, and to an extreme extent Leto only seem to make worthy movies every once in a while, so we’ll see what happens.

    DiCaprio, Bale, and Hawkins are all people who get looked over a lot by the Academy, but I do think their noms this year prove that their gaining some supporters.

    Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these actors make it back at some point, and I honestly hope they all do. 

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    AviChristiaans
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    #142353

    DEFINITELY Getting Nominated Again:
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Amy Adams
    Meryl Streep
    Cate Blanchett
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    Chiwetel Ejiofer

    Likely:
    Bradley Cooper
    Sandra Bullock
    Judi Dench
    Lupita Nyongo
    Christian Bale
    Michael Fassbender
    Jonah Hill
    Matthew McConaughey
    Jared Leto
    Julia Roberts

    Unlikely:
    June Squibb
    Barkhad Abdi
    Bruce Dern
    Sally Hawkins

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    Eddy Q
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    #142354

    ^ Avi’s seems the most accurate to me, though I would swap Sally Hawkins with Jared Leto. I fear that Judi Dench, even if nominated again, will end up like Vanessa Redgrave, with several outstanding lead performances but only one Oscar in supporting.

    I think Ejiofor’s chances of another nomination are being underestimated by some on this thread; after 12 Years a Slave it seems like Hollywood has finally sat up and noticed. Maybe if Joe Wright’s planned adaptation of the play A Season in the Congo, in which he directed Ejiofor playing Congolese Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba to raves last year, is well received, then Ejiofor could well sweep through the season, especially considering he’s a strong contender yet probable loser this year.

    Also if Bruce Dern gets nominated in supporting in the next few years, he could win in a walk.

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    vinny
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    #142355

    Mine (in alphabetical order):

    Barkhad Abdi – 30%
    Amy Adams – 100%
    Christian Bale – 90%
    Cate Blanchett – 100%
    Sandra Bullock – 90%
    Bradley Cooper – 90%
    Judi Dench – 90%
    Bruce Dern – 70%
    Leonardo DiCaprio – 100%
    Chiwetel Ejiofor – 80%
    Michael Fassbender – 85%
    Sally Hawkins – 70%
    Jonah Hill – 75%
    Jennifer Lawrence – 100%
    Jared Leto – 40%
    Matthew McConaughey – 85%
    Lupita Nyong’o – 70%
    Julia Roberts – 80%
    June Squibb – 20%
    Meryl Streep – 100%

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    Atypical
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    #142356

    I’ll divide the 20 acting nominees into categories of likeliness of being nominated again. I hate to list any as absolutely unlikely to be nominated, b/c that’s completely false with the right timing, role, and performance. But here goes:

    MOST LIKELY TO BE NOMINATED AGAIN:

    Amy Adams: She wins the Oscar on her next nomination lol.
    Christian Bale: He could very well win again before his career is completed.
    Cate Blanchett: I think that Cate Blanchett is one of the few people who can rival Meryl Streep’s nominations count by the end of her career.
    Sandra Bullock: As long as she challenges herself and proves that her Oscar win wasn’t a fluke, I could definitely see her returning for more nods.
    Bradley Cooper: 2 consecutive Oscar nominations is significant; I predict him winning one in coming years, as he was a frontrunner for the win last year had it not been for the DDL/”Lincoln” juggernaut.
    Leonardo DiCaprio: Absolutely; he’ll win one of his own eventually, and hopefully before he’s 80 (*fingers crossed*).
    Jennifer Lawrence: J-Law will be a mainstay for years to come.
    Matthew McConaughey: Now that McConaughey’s in the “club” and poised to win the Oscar next month, oh man, watch out for him in the coming years for follow-up nominations. Emmys too.
    Julia Roberts: Queen Julia’s back in business and in voters’ good graces again! I hope to see her in the mix in future lineups, and in lead where she belongs.
    Meryl Streep: Duh.

    SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO BE NOMINATED AGAIN:

    Judi Dench: If she’s really retiring soon, sadness! There’s still farewell nods to be had for her regardless. “Philomena” would have been a fine career closer.
    Bruce Dern: It’ll depend on how long he continues to work and what kinds of roles he gets. A supporting actor win would be very easy for him post-“Nebraska,” I think.
    Chiwetel Ejiofor: Let’s see what future roles are in store for him first; this breakthrough took a long time after some notable snubs over the years.
    Michael Fassbender: If he plays the “game,” sure; if he doesn’t, then his chances decrease despite his great talent.
    Sally Hawkins: I thought she’d never get in after her stunning work and epic snub for “Happy-Go-Lucky.” It could go either way for her, but better late than never, of course.
    Jonah Hill: His citations will always be role-dependent. but Hill is very much in the Academy’s sweet spot right now.
    Lupita Nyong’o: This really could go either way too, win or lose next month. It’s more a lack of roles/opportunities than any slight to her many fine talents.

    UNLIKELY TO BE NOMINATED AGAIN
    :

    Barkhad Abdi: Please prove me wrong here! His chances would go up a tier if he upsets and wins the Oscar next month.
    Jared Leto: How many more films will he do now? A well-deserved Oscar win won’t necessarily mean that he’ll continue to work on film projects. There’s his awful “rock band” to consider as well in terms of taking his time away from film.
    June Squibb: It took her this much time to earn a first Oscar nomination after a long career as a character actress. I think this is her career peak and probable last nod unless she greatly capitalizes on this hot streak and runs with it (see: Jackie Weaver, Betty White, Gloria Stuart, etc.).

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    eastwest
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    #142357

    Meryl Streep is an institution. And that project David O. Russell has could bring his muse her next nomination if she joins.

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    AviChristiaans
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    #142358

    Jared Leto’s sporadic acting career shouldn’t be a factor in whether he would return to the Oscars.He has emphasized in 2013 interviews that he would be concentrating on his acting career more from now onwards. He was apparently nudged/coerced into returning to acting with the role in Dallas Buyers Club by his agent/publicist.

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