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How Likely Is It That “Birdman” Won’t Win Any Major Oscars?

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  • DD
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    #172018

    “Birdman” is, arguably, this year’s “actor’s film.” It’s a movie about actors that’s going to be well represented across most Academy branches. The multiple acting nominations obviously help as well.

    Usually the popular actors’ films win at least one major Oscar. In recent years, “Silver Linings Playbook,” “12 Years A Slave,” “Sideways,” “Lincoln,” “Dallas Buyers’ Club,” “The King’s Speech,” etc. were the actors’ branch most popular films and all won Oscar gold. (NOTE: “American Hustle” was also a very popular film with actors, but it’s a pretty messy film that was way overnominated and eventually got overshadowed by 12YAS and DBC.

    With that said, many folks aren’t predicting “Birdman” to win any major Oscars. I’d be very shocked if that happened. I still think Keaton is a slight frontrunner and the film is a strong #2 in several categories (Picture, supporting actor/actress, directing, screenplay).

    What’s the general consensus around here regarding Birdman’s potential Oscar wins? Can most of us agree that it’s likely to win at least one major Oscar?

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    Tye-Grr
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    #172020

    I think Keaton is taking that Oscar home. And Lubezki better be taking home his second Oscar in a row for cinematography.

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    Halo_Insider
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    #172021

    While it’s certainly possible it goes home with nothing, I think there will be enough support that voters will be able to rally around it somewhere. I have Director going to Boyhood and Screenplay as belonging to The Grand Budapest Hotel, but Lubezki appears to be the prime candidate to win for Cinematography, and Keaton will probably remain my default frontrunner until SAG.  

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    manakamana
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    #172022

    Major as in top 8? It’s possible. I don’t think it’s winning Picture or either supporting category, I don’t think it’s winning screenplay even if that’s more likely and I’m personally not predicting Michael Keaton to win (it seems like the kind of narrative where his nomination is considered sufficient reward). 

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    KyleBailey
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    #172023

    Cinematography is its real only shot and there are going to be some heavy hitters with it so it isn’t a cake walk 

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    24Emmy
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    #172024

    Cinematography is its real only shot and there are going to be some heavy hitters with it so it isn’t a cake walk 

     

    Okay. This opinion makes sense because you’re not even predicting Michael Keaton to get nominated. Birdman in your 8th slot for Best Picture? Please explain that one.

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #172025

    It is NOT winning nothing. That’s humanely impossible.

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    Pieman1994
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    #172026

    It’s possible, but I think they’ll probably give it something. I think Michael Keaton will take Best Actor. Certainly, he deserves it. Even if he’s an off-putting person–or so his reputation has seemed to suggest–he still has a fair shot. 

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    AMG
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    #172027

    Looking at the major categories largely predicted winners:

    Picture – Boyhood 
    Director – Linklater
    Supporting Actor – Simmons
    Supporting Actress – Arquette
    Original Screenplay – Boyhood
     
    Best Actor is the only major category its forecast to win. But, if its close with the voting between Keaton & Redmayne, the good guy factor may have to come into play, and Redmayne will take it. That’s what I hope anyway. 

    If any film is to get shut out after a large noms tally, then Grand Budapest Hotel will likely pull off a ‘Colour Purple’/’American Hustle’ style whitewash.  

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    Halo_Insider
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    #172028

    Looking at the major categories largely predicted winners:

    Picture – Boyhood 
    Director – Linklater
    Supporting Actor – Simmons
    Supporting Actress – Arquette
    Original Screenplay – Boyhood
     
    Best Actor is the only major category its forecast to win. But, if its close with the voting between Keaton & Redmayne, the good guy factor may have to come into play, and Redmayne will take it. That’s what I hope anyway. 

    If any film is to get shut out after a large noms tally, then Grand Budapest Hotel will likely pull off a ‘Colour Purple’/’American Hustle’ style whitewash.  

    Actually, at this rate, I think Grand Budapest Hotle could end up winning Original Screenplay, if voters find Boyhood’s direction a sufficient place to reward Linklater. It’s been taking the lion’s share of critics awards (sweeping NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC), and I have it taking the Golden Globe. 

    There’s also the chance it takes Production Design. 

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    Tonbone
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    #172029

    So is SCREENPLAY a two-horse race between “Birdman” & “Boyhood” now for sure?? 

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    Macbeth
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    #172030

    Not a chance its not winning something.

    Michael Keaton will win. He has to win – Eddie Redmayne gives a good enough performance, but he just doesn’t seem to have the support needed to boost him to a win. The Golden Globe could go to Redmayne, but Cumberbatch and Gyllenhaal are also contenders there. SAG will go to Keaton, and then he will get the Oscar. It honestly feels a lot like how people were doubting McConaughey as the winner before the major televised awards, despite getting many critics awards. We stuck to the Chiwetel prediction, because he both had the performance, the film and the nominations and wins. So many are doubting Keaton’s win, but then when he does win (hopefully), it will be a lot clearer in retrospect at how much of a frontrunner he actually is. 

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    Atypical
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    #172031

    Not very likely. Keaton is a major frontrunner to win Lead Actor if he doesn’t blow it this month. There are other gettable wins if voters really love this film, which I’m not entirely convinced of, but the narrative is strong for Keaton at least. It can carry him through to the end if he plays it right.

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    KyleBailey
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    #172032

    [quote=”KyleBailey”]Cinematography is its real only shot and there are going to be some heavy hitters with it so it isn’t a cake walk 

     

    Okay. This opinion makes sense because you’re not even predicting Michael Keaton to get nominated. Birdman in your 8th slot for Best Picture? Please explain that one.

    [/quote]

    I have all my other Best Pic nominees in random order because nothing is going to beat Boyhood that is just a fantasy of an idea at this point. This is The Artist all over again. Just nothing has come along that will beat it. 

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #172033

    Sorry I don’t get the point of this thread at all. Not only is Keaton the winner right now, but there’s no real need to even think he isn’t at least in an extremely close race with Redmayne who definitely doesn’t have the narrative or the support for his film like Keaton has.

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