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How many films will get nominated for Best Picture this year?

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  • outsider
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    #171981

    9 seems to be the magic number since they implemented this rule (2011, 2012, 2013). Will this year be any different?

    There are a lot of movies with legitimate chances at a Best Picture nomination. How many of them will manage to receive the required 5% if the field is divided and votes are scattered in so many directions?

    After “Boyhood”, “Birdman”, “Selma” and “The Imitation Game” which should be safe, we have:

    “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    “The Theory of Everything”
    “Whiplash”
    “Gone Girl”
    “Nightcrawler”
    “Foxcatcher”
    “American Sniper”
    “Unbroken”
    “Mr Turner”

    We know the answer it at least 5 but not more than 10. What is your prediction?

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #171983

    It’s hard to say but I think it’s gonna be 9-10. The race is way to competitive to only have 8.

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    Laactingnyc
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    #171984

    I think it will probably be 9…..maybe 10. How is Selma safe? I’m still not convinced it is as safe as people think it is. Didn’t it just miss out on a PGA nomination? 

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    outsider
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    #171985

    It’s been reported that “Selma” had trouble sending screeners to the Producers Guild in time. I think the important subject matter and the good critical reception make it safe.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #171986

    The one thing I have learned about history is that it is doomed to repeat itself, repeat itself, repeat iself.

    It will be nine, which I find kinda stupid because if they said “between five and ten” and every year they come up with nine films, why not just nominate tenth film? It’s just the same as before!!

    Well the nine I think will be Birdman, Boyhood, Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Nightcrawler, Selma, Unbroken and Whiplash. 

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    babypook
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    #171987

    Nine. This way, they can “leave” a deserving, perhaps one of the “best” films off the nomination ballot.

     

    Snow Piercer

    Selma

    Mr Turner

    Belle

    The Lego Movie

    The Babadook

    Leviathan

    Locke

    Calvary

    Ok ok; but there are many many others.

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    Cheshire
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    #171988

    I wish they just go back to either 5 or 10 nominees. But I say 9 because ever since this rule came the nominees have always been 9.
     

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    Tye-Grr
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    #171989

    I think this will be the year that we get 10.

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    Eddy Q
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    #171990

    I read somewhere once (don’t remember where, might look it up when I have time) that they actually calculated how many BP nominees there would’ve been with the current system for all previous years from 2001, and the results varied between 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, but never 10. Apparently 10 nominees is mathematically highly improbable.

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    benbraddock
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    #171991

    We had 10 the initial year 2010…of course they scraped the barrell
    with  THE BLIND SIDE…..

    This year has alot of good solid competitive films..
    Ill go with these 9

    BOYHOOD
    THE IMITAION GAME
    BIRDMAN
    SELMA
    WHIPLASH
    AMERICAN SNIPER
    MR. TURNER
    THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
    UNBROKEN

    Just missing

    Foxcatcher
    Into the Woods
    Interstellar
    A Most Violent Year

    The 4 without director matching will be
    UNBROKEN
    SELMA
    MR. TURNER
    WHIPLASH

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    outsider
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    #171992

    I read somewhere once (don’t remember where, might look it up when I have time) that they actually calculated how many BP nominees there would’ve been with the current system for all previous years from 2001, and the results varied between 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, but never 10. Apparently 10 nominees is mathematically highly improbable.

    I remember this was reported in 2011 when they announced their new rule about getting 5% of the vote.

    This is the reason I am fascinated by the fact that we’ve ended up with 9 nominees three years in a row. There’s been no variation. Maybe this year’s increased competition will lead to a 10th nominee or we will finally have fewer than 9?

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    Troye
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    #171993

    We had 10 the initial year 2010…of course they scraped the barrell
    with  THE BLIND SIDE…..

    That wasn’t the initial year in which the Academy practised the 5-10 rule they are using now. That year, the rule was that there HAD to be 10 films. The first year in which the 5-10 rule was practised was The Artist year.

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    Halo_Insider
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    #171994

    [quote=”Wilkomirsk11″]I read somewhere once (don’t remember where, might look it up when I have time) that they actually calculated how many BP nominees there would’ve been with the current system for all previous years from 2001, and the results varied between 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, but never 10. Apparently 10 nominees is mathematically highly improbable.

    I remember this was reported in 2011 when they announced their new rule about getting 5% of the vote.

    This is the reason I am fascinated by the fact that we’ve ended up with 9 nominees three years in a row. There’s been no variation. Maybe this year’s increased competition will lead to a 10th nominee or we will finally have fewer than 9?[/quote]

    I recall back when I Sasha Stone touched on that when she guess what some of the extra contenders might have been between 2001-2008. Apparently, it was based from a Hollywood Reporter interview with Tom Sherak

    http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2012/01/best-picture-will-it-be-5-6-7-8-9-10/ 

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    DominicCobb
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    #171995

    How the hell is Unbroken still in contention? Bad reviews, little awards, I don’t see it.

    1. Boyhood
    2. Birdman
    3. The Imitation Game
    4. Selma
    5. The Theory of Everything
    6. Whiplash
    7. Gone Girl
    8. The Grand Budapest Hotel
    9. Foxcatcher

    I have a hard time believing it’s anything but these nine. The only surprise would be if some are left out and there is less than 9 (which might be possible).

    Other than those the others swirling are Nightcrawler, American Sniper, Interstellar, A Most Violent Year, Wild, Mr. Turner, Inherent Vice, and Unbroken. I highly doubt any of those will make it in.

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    Ghost
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    #171996

    Right now I’m going with 9 and can’t see myself predicting a 10th.

    1. Boyhood

    2. Birdman

    3. Selma

    4. The Imitation Game

    5. The Theory of Everything

    6. The Grand Budapest Hotel

    7. Foxcatcher

    8. Whiplash

    9. Gone Girl

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