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How many of the 24 Oscar categories are 100% locks?

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  • Marcus Dixon
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    #217132

    Every year at the Oscars, there are several categories that seem to be no-brainers and foregone conclusions. How many of this year’s 24 categories are 100% locks?

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    Andrew Carden
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    #217134

    Lead Actor and Animated Feature

    That’s it.

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    Tony Ruiz
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    #217135

    Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplays, and Animated Feature.

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    Riley
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    #217136

    Maybe not quite a hundred percent, but these are locks:

    1. Best Director
    2. Best Leading Actor
    3. Best Leading Actress
    4. Best Supporting Actor
    5. Best Supporting Actress
    6. Best Original Screenplay
    7. Best Adapted Screenplay
    8. Best Animated Feature
    9. Best Documentary Feature
    10. Best Foreign Language Film
    11. Best Cinematography
    12. Best Makeup & Hairstyling
    13. Best Original Score
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    Chevi
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    #217137

    Lead Actor
    Lead Actress
    Original Screenplay
    Adapted Screenplay
    Cinematography
    Film Editing
    Score
    Animated Feature
    Foreign Language

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    Bird
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    #217138

    In order of confidence (not including shorts):

    1. Animated Feature
    2. Lead Actor
    3. Lead Actress
    4. Adapted Screenplay
    5. Foreign Language
    6. Documentary
    7. Original Screenplay
    8. Makeup and Hairstyling
    9. Cinematography
    10.Production Design
    11.Original Song
    12.Supporting Actor

    13.Sound Editing
    14.Editing
    15.Sound Mixing
    16.Visual Effects
    17.Costume Design

    18.Supporting Actress
    19.Director

    20.Best Picture 

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    Eddy Q
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    #217139

    As a rule I never say 100%, but I’m 99% sure of these:

    Director – Iñárritu
    Actor – DiCaprio (duh)
    Actress – Larson
    Original Screenplay – Spotlight
    Adapted Screenplay – The Big Short
    Cinematography – The Revenant
    Animated Feature – Inside Out

    I don’t think anything else can really be called a lock, though a proper analysis of the Supporting Actress category clearly shows Alicia Vikander is the frontrunner, considering Kate Winslet only won where Vikander was in lead for TDG and none of the others have won anything of note. I’m holding back on calling this one a lock purely because of the irregularity of the category this season. In a different way this is also true for Stallone in Supporting Actor.

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    Volcarocka
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    #217140

    In terms of the main categories, DiCaprio is the only lock for me, simply because he had the singular best performance of the year, without question. Larson could lose to Ronan, Stallone could easily lose to Rylance, and S. Actress is just wide open (McAdams being the only one who can’t win here). Picture and Director are not categories to put money on this year.

    In smaller categories, Animated Feature, both Screenplays, and Cinematography are as close to 100% as possible. 

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    GusCruz
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    #217141

    Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score (Bafta confirmed it), Original Song (unfortunately, as the Gaga/Warren is truly awful. But Gaga has been campaigning since last year’s ceremony. I don’t see anything else winning.), Animated Feature, Documentary (maybe not a 100% lock, but there’s not one, but three real challengers to Amy, so it’s harder for an upset), Foreign Language Film (I called this race over back in Cannes).

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    sturnc
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    #217142

    Of the 24 categories I’d say that, while nothing is ever 100%, there are 11 that I cant imagine going to anything else, they are: Director-Inarritu
    Actor-DiCaprio
    Actress-Larson
    Original/Adapted screenplay-Spotlight/Big Short
    Production Design-Mad Max
    Makeup & Hairstyling-Mad Max
    Animated-Inside Out
    Foreign-Son of Saul
    Cinematography-Revenant
    Score-Hateful Eight
    I also think these four will win as well but I can see an upset, just a very very small chance of one, those are
    Supporting Actor-Stallone
    Supporting Actress-Vikander
    Documentary-Amy
    Song-Til’ it Happens to You
    That leaves Picture, editing, the sounds, visual effects, costumes, and the shorts as the only ones im not entirely confident in. So I cant wait to be wrong on all of them.

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    Jalal Haddad
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    #217143

    The only categories I would say are 100% locks are lead actor (Leonardi DiCaprio), Lead Actress (Brie Larson), Original Screenplay (Spotlight), Cinematography (The Revenant), Animated Feature (Inside Out), and documentary feature (Amy).

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    Andrew Carden
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    #217145

    Surprised by all of this confidence for “Amy,” given Best Documentary Feature is a category fairly prone to upsets. I think the presence of the Nina Simone film may also draw some votes away from the front-runner.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #217144

    Let’s see
    1. Director
    2. Actor
    3. Supporting Actor
    4. Original screenplay
    5. Adapted screenplay
    6. Actress
    7. Production design
    8. Cinematography
    9. Original score
    10. Original song
    11. Documentary
    12. Foreign film
    13. Make up & hairstyling
    14. Animated feature

    Just missing would be supporting actress and visual effects.

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    Michael Norris
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    #217146

    Every category where the frontrunner is not disputed is a lock.

    J/K. Actor and Animated Feature only. 

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    RobertPius
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    #217147

    So is “Amy” a lock? 

    I don’t know what else is in contention but I think that one could be shakey with older academy members.  

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