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How much did Christoph Waltz win by?

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  • Tariq Khan
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    #98249

    The 2012 Best Supporting Actor Oscar race was absolutely fascinating – with Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro appearing to be ahead of eventual winner Christoph Waltz. Was it a Jones/De Niro split that allowed Waltz to prevail?

    Here’s my guess as to how the votes went.

    Christoph Waltz – 25%
    Robert De Niro – 24%
    Tommy Lee Jones – 22%
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – 16%
    Alan Arkin – 13%

    What would you guess for the breakdown?

    Too bad that we’ll never know.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #98251

    I remember when in the old days, they used to let you know how the nominees placed in voting.

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    Graeme O’Neil
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    #98252

    And how exactly would have Jones and De Niro have split votes?

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    PJ Edwards
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    #98253

    I don’t think it was that close, unfortunately.

    Waltz – 40%
    De Niro – 15%
    Jones – 15%
    Hoffman – 15%
    Arkin – 15%  

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    PJ Edwards
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    #98254

    I don’t think it was that close, unfortunately.

    Waltz – 40%
    De Niro – 15%
    Jones – 15%
    Hoffman – 15%
    Arkin – 15%  

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    Tyjet
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    #98255

    I don’t think it was that close

    Waltz – 40%
    De Niro – 15%
    Jones – 15%
    Hoffman – 15%
    Arkin – 15%  

    This, although I don’t think Waltz was that far ahead of the rest of the pack. Idk why Waltz was so underpredicted when, IMO, he was the obvious choice. Normally a SAG snub spells the end of someone’s chances (see: every Oscar nominee snubbed by SAG not named Marcia Gay Harden), but he wasn’t really snubbed. The release of Django screwed him out of a nod with them because they couldn’t send out screeners in time, coupled with the confusion over his category placement. I think he’d have taken the SAG too if they’d nominated him. Or at least contended/came second. 

    De Niro was such a non-factor in this race. No way was he only 1% behind Waltz. If SAG were unwilling to give De Niro his first award for SLP (and he had momentum/buzz there too), no way were AMPAS giving him his THIRD. 

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    Renaton
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    #98256

    I agree that people kept insisting on the De Niro bandwagon, and it just wasn’t gonna happen. He has a past with the academy (and american filmmaking) he has to live up to, and besides Arkin, he was the one with the least amount of screentime and impact on his film. His nomination was sort of a “welcome back!” sort of deal, not a “it’s time to give him a third”. Plus, SLP really underperformed (with exception of Jennifer, of course).

    I think Jones, being the SAG winner, was probably second, and he probably would have won if Waltz had never changed placements. I know people think I’m crazy because they don’t like the performance, but I still believe Arkin was third. His film won BP, he had a comic relief role, and he was the sole chance to give Argo an acting win. I still believe he was more competitive than we give him credit for. Hoffman was probably fourth, because “The Master” had a few core passionate voters, but not enough to make the film or hsi performance a too much of big deal in the race, but it was just enough to get him nominated, but still too polarizing. And then, De Niro in fifth.

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    delerian
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    #98257

    It think it is a little strange to put Tommy Lee Jones equal to or behind the votes of De Niro. De Niro wasn’t even nominated for the Golden Globes or the BAFTA for his role. Tommy Lee Jones was nominated for both. And let’s not forget that most of the betting markets were predicting a Tommy Lee Jones victory. I’m sure De Niro had an impact, but I certainly don’t think it was close to an even split with Jones. I’m thinking it was more like a Ross Perot style split.

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    iskolar
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    #98258

    My guess is

    Waltz – 40
    Jones – 25
    de Niro – 15
    Hoffman – 13
    Arkin – 7

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    allabout oscars
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    #98259

    Since none of us actually know or can find out
    Ill just say that he won by 3 votes over TLJ….
    Is my guess as good as any others…????? hahahahah

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #98260

    I believe that TLJ was over De Niro by like three percent. It is a huge plus if you win the SAG because that means that you are respected by actors. De Niro didnt win the SAG.

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    Mrs. Doolittle
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    #98261

    Waltz won in a landslide. Tommy Lee Jones was for sure in second place. I can imagine Arkin was in third.

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    Titanium
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    #98262

    Seriously though, why did all the oscarologists make such a case that DeNiro was going to win, when like Tom O’Neill said he’d been snubbed by a lot of award groups and more importantly HE DIDN’T WIN ANYTHING! At first I was cynical of Waltz getting a second win, however much I wanted it to happen, but then by the end lots of tealeaves came together pointing to him winning! I think it’s just ridiculous that pundits like Tariq refused to see it and went for DeNiro to feed their own ego..

    Waltz – 32%
    Jones – 28%
    DeNiro – 15%
    Hoffman – 15%
    Arkin – 10% – he only got votes from the diehard Argo people I reckon.         

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    Mrs. Doolittle
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    #98263

    It was basically just the Riva fanboys who over exaggerated DeNiro’s fictional chances of a win. (To me his nomination was horribly undeserving) I remember all of them saying if they were going to award someone from SLP, it would be DeNiro over Jennifer, so Riva would take it in the end. Boy did I have a good laugh that night.

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    Titanium
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    #98264

    ^^^
    Yeah exactly what I thought! The whole Riva bandwagon irritated the hell out of me! I thought she was amazing in Amour but realistically she wasn’t going to win, which is why it annoyed me that sooo many people; both pundit and forum poster were so arrogantly adamant that Riva and DeNiro would win, with no proof. It was almost trolling in a way, I mean it was such a complex chain of events that they created to say that DeNiro and Riva would win. It was probably possible, but like a 1/50 chance. There were much more straightforward spoiler theories people made (like Chastain pulling a spoiler and beating Lawrence) which I thought could’ve actually happened. But this was ridiculous. So glad someone else agrees. And yeah I was a little smug come the night when they were proven wrong.                

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