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If “The Big Short” wins SAG, then Best Picture Oscar winner or just another “Little Miss Sunshine”?

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  • Rinolo Twenty-two
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    #212622

    “The Big Short” just won Best Picture at the PGA Awards, and it has high probabilities to win Best Cast at the SAG Awards, those awards will make it a Best Picture Winner at the Oscars? Or it will lose like Little Miss Sunshine (it won both PGA and SAG Awards). What a coincidence! Both movies were starred by Steve Carell.

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    shart
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    #212624

    The Big Short is rising fast.  I think it’s timing and the relative demerits against the other films will play too much in it’s favor.  Too soon for Innaritu to win again, nominations will have to be The Revenant’s reward — possible wins Best Actor, Best Cinematography.  Spotlight has been out a long time and it has faded, also not made that much at the box office, although it could still show.  Mad Max is fantastic and could still win Best Director for the oscarless George Miller but McKay is also rising fast here — MM could sweep most of the tech awards.  The Martian has no nod for Ridley Scott (for shame!) and is a welcome crowd pleaser but I don’t think it has nearly that much leverage against these others.  It really is only a 4 way race with The Revenant and MM out, I think, and Spotlight fading somewhat.  In the end, BP will be between Big Short and Spotlight with Big Short the winner.     

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    CanadianFan
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    #212626

    I’m not even sure it needs SAG, to be honest.

    The major difference here is that ever since PGA adopted the same voting procedures as the Oscars, they have never been wrong.

     

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    Rinolo Twenty-two
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    #212627

    The Big Short is rising fast.  I think it’s timing and the relative demerits against the other films will play too much in it’s favor.  Too soon for Innaritu to win again, nominations will have to be The Revenant’s reward — possible wins Best Actor, Best Cinematography.  Spotlight has been out a long time and it has faded, also not made that much at the box office, although it could still show.  Mad Max is fantastic and could still win Best Director for the oscarless George Miller but McKay is also rising fast here — MM could sweep most of the tech awards.  The Martian has no nod for Ridley Scott (for shame!) and is a welcome crowd pleaser but I don’t think it has nearly that much leverage against these others.  It really is only a 4 way race with The Revenant and MM out, I think, and Spotlight fading somewhat.  In the end, BP will be between Big Short and Spotlight with Big Short the winner.     

    George Miller won the oscar for Best Animated Film for Happy Feet in 2007, so he is not oscarless. 

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    Riley
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    #212628

    PGA > eight hundred critics’ awards and Golden Globes

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    CanadianFan
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    #212629

    [quote=”austin111″]

    The Big Short is rising fast.  I think it’s timing and the relative demerits against the other films will play too much in it’s favor.  Too soon for Innaritu to win again, nominations will have to be The Revenant’s reward — possible wins Best Actor, Best Cinematography.  Spotlight has been out a long time and it has faded, also not made that much at the box office, although it could still show.  Mad Max is fantastic and could still win Best Director for the oscarless George Miller but McKay is also rising fast here — MM could sweep most of the tech awards.  The Martian has no nod for Ridley Scott (for shame!) and is a welcome crowd pleaser but I don’t think it has nearly that much leverage against these others.  It really is only a 4 way race with The Revenant and MM out, I think, and Spotlight fading somewhat.  In the end, BP will be between Big Short and Spotlight with Big Short the winner.     

    George Miller won the oscar for Best Animated Film for Happy Feet in 2007, so he is not oscarless. 
    [/quote]

    Can we all just, like, collectively forget this ever happened? 

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    Amanda Spears
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    #212630

    It could be but we need to see how some of the other guilds weigh in.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #212631

    There are still 3 films that can win BP: The Big Short, The Revenant and Spotlight. I do think TBS has a much better chance now. It’s a close race, which is fun!

    Without throwing a hissy fit, what if Trumbo wins Best Ensemble? How about if Spotlight wins SAG ensemble?. How does that impact things? Are we all being too reactive as each new award comes in? DGA might pick one of the awful movies, who knows?(I do know that we disagree about which are the two films that are awful! LOL!) 

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    Rinolo Twenty-two
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    #212632

    DGA might pick one of the awful movies, who knows?(I do know that we disagree about which are the two films that are awful! LOL!) 

    You always find a way to hate on Mad Max and The Revenant. We get it.
     

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    Rooney Moore
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    #212633

    The history has showed us over the years that SAG-Ensemble is a pretty irrelevant barometer to see things through on Best Picture race. If The Help could win, anything can.

    DGA will have much, much more effect. But I’m expecting TBS to win that one, too since PGA and DGA have been agreeing on their winners ever since the former has started to use the preferential ballot.

    But after this point, no matter WHAT kind of craziness happens, Big Short will remain its frontrunner status until the Oscar night. Even if it loses all guilds that are about to come it will be considered as the strong favourite.
    Why? Because producers have so much power in Academy that it is impossible that a movie can win without their support? No. But because everyone with a little bit of power or respect in Holywood has produced, or put money on something in their career one way or another. Whether it’s a short film or a commercial, or a stupid morning show and became a member of PGA. It’s not only real ” producers” voting for the winner. It’s the most important names in Holywood.

    You wouldn’t have seen The King’s Speech winning directing Oscar if only the members of directing branch in Academy (who have snubbed the eventual DGA winner Argo few years ago)  voted for the winner. 
     There are just too many people like Kevin Spacey that have been member of all main guilds(PGA&WGA&DGA&SAG) and that’s why award season becomes such a bore-fest after some point when something starts to win everything.
    SAG is the only group that can totally go their own way since there are so much, much more people voting for it& there is a less overlap between them and the heavyweights of the industry.

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    Patrick
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    #212634

    Winning SAG Ensemble isn’t that much of a predictor of winning best picture, unlike PGA. It is important to note that Braveheart is the only film to win Best Picture at the Oscars without a nomination for best ensemble at SAG, so The Revenant is an unlikely (yet still possible) winner.

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    manakamana
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    #212635

    Ever since the PGA decided to mirror the Academy’s preferential ballot, they haven’t been wrong. 

    Also, Little Miss Sunshine was the director nom-less indie that could. That’s not exactly TBS’ position at this moment.  

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    Payal Darji
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    #212636

    Oof, I’ve got to get my pepto-bismal ready for Brad Pitt with a evil shit eating grin rushing the stage to collect the Oscar. I really don’t understand how this overrated thicko has received an disproportionate amount of success to his talent. I really have to wonder what underhanded behaviour he’s doing behind the scenes. It’s just unfair, TBS is not a great film but he still gets away with it.

    It’s really disheartening that people in the audience will be all over him thinking he’s god and the greatest producer/talent in the history of Hollywood. I’m really glad Leonardo is winning this year and the attention will be on him and he will receive a wonderful standing ovation that will overshadow Pitt.

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