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If there is a Director/Picture split…

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  • Daniel B.
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    #179177

    If Birdman and Boyhood split the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars this year, which film do you think will win for directing and which will take home Best Picture?

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    Ghost
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    #179179

    If a split happens (which I’m not predicting), it’ll be Birdman for Picture and Linklater for Director.

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    Pieman1994
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    #179180

    I think they’ll like Linklater more than his film. 

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    Eddy Q
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    #179181

    Funny this thread should come up now, as I’ve literally just changed my predictions to Birdman for Picture and Boyhood for Director. I’d had it the other way round since DGA, mostly because you’d think the flashier movie would win Best Director in a split, like Gravity last year against 12 Years a Slave. But I’m struck by how Linklater has had votes from quite a few anonymous members not voting for Boyhood as Best Picture, and even some who had it as low as 4th place. What’s also interesting is that the GoldDerby awards (bear with me) had Linklater notably further out front for Director than Picture. I know using GD awards as a predicting tool is usually death to punditry (*cough* Tom O’Neal *cough*) and the same applies to slim pickings of anonymous ballots, but it does suggest that Linklater’s narrative is stronger for Best Director with Boyhood being such a uniquely personal, committed project. Birdman, on the other hand, is another example of Hollywood self-reflection which helped The Artist and Argo, and it does seem more of a “producer’s movie” than Boyhood, at least superficially. 

    Mark Harris wrote a convincing piece on this today.

    http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/final-oscar-predictions-who-will-win-on-sunday/ 

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    Anonymous
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    #179182

    Boyhood and Linklater wins. 

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    CAROL-CHANNING
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    #179183

    Honestly, I still see Boyhood winning both.  But if Birdman does win Best Picture (which I would love), I don’t see Linklater losing.

    But can I just say that I’m SO happy that best director and best picture have split the past few years?  It makes things so much more interesting and recognizes the different skill sets involved. 

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    Eddy Q
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    #179184

    ^I agree. I hate it when people insist that it doesn’t make sense for the Best Picture to not be the “best directed”. These things are all relative, and awards for individual categories are something of an approximation. If Picture and Director had to be the same, you might as well combine the two categories into one.

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #179185

    I have Boyhood winning both. If the split occurs I have no doubt it would be Birdman for BP and Linklater for BD. I’m confident that Linklater is winning director I can’t see him losing.

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    Monty
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    #179186

    If there is a split, birdman winning best picture with boyhood winning best director seems unlikely. There seems to be no category for birdman to win except cinematography. The last film winning best picture with less than 3 oscars would be Rebecca (1940). The academy needs to justify the best picture win with some wins in major categories (directing, acting or screenplay). It is difficult for Birdman to win both supporting and both sounds. The only possible options would be original screenplay and best actor but Wes Anderson and Eddie Redmayne were gaining so much momentum in these two category. The academy just can’t give out a Best picture with just a cinematography win, right?

    I don’t see birdman losing best picture neither after so many guild/ industry wins. I guess birdman would win best picture, best director and best cinematography

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    Anonymous
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    #179187

    Boyhood and Linklater wins. 

    Funny, I was thinking the exact same thing.

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    GusCruz
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    #179188

    If there is a split, birdman winning best picture with boyhood winning best director seems unlikely. There seems to be no category for birdman to win except cinematography. The last film winning best picture with less than 3 oscars would be Mrs Miniver (1942). The academy needs to justify the best picture win with some wins in major categories (directing, acting or screenplay). It is difficult for Birdman to win both supporting and both sounds. The only possible options would be original screenplay and best actor but Wes Anderson and Eddie Redmayne were gaining so much momentum in these two category. The academy just can’t give out a Best picture with just a cinematography win, right?

    I don’t see birdman losing best picture neither after so many guild/ industry wins. I guess birdman would win best picture, best director and best cinematography

    Original Screenplay is still very much possible.

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    endaugust
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    #179189

    I still believe that Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) is too out there for the Academy to embrace as Best Picture. 

    But I have to respect the fact that it won that powerful combination PGA DGA to walk away empty-handed in the top 2 categories. So I have predicted Innarritu to win BD. But at the same time two Mexican directors winning in consecutive years when no Mexican had won before last year? 

    So confused!  

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    PaperMan
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    #179190

    Best Picture usually, at this point always wins at least 3 Oscars. I am still researching, going furhter back to see which movie won less than 3. I assume it happened way, way back. But here are the determining factors:

    Boyhood: Supporting Actress is in the bag. It has to win Editing(front runner) or Directing(50-50) or Screenplay(third in most likely) to win Best Picture. All other nominations it has doesn’t have a chance really, we can agree on that. 
    Birdman: Cinematography is in the bag. It has to win Actor(second in most likely) or Directing(50-50) or Screenplay(second in most likely) to win Best Picture. All other nominations it has doesn’t have a chance really, we can agree on that. 

    Those, I firmly believe is what’s going to decide this. It’s very frustrating. Best actor is a 3 way race to me. 

    So when Director winner is announced, if the film that winner represents has 2 wins now and the other has 1, the movie the director represents will win. If it’s 2 wins for both after Director is announced, I have no fricken clue. Probably Boyhood because it’s crowd pleasing and heart felt. 
     

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    Enygma
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    #179191

    You guys and your voluntarism. Bridman won PGA and DGA and is winning picture and director(plus it’s art), Boyhood is really just lefty gimmick by school of rock director. Read and listen to Inarittu and you will surely know who the artist is here and who’s not.

    Boyhood should not win anything imo. I was flabergasted when a bunch of you here were saying it should win best script. I mean WTF??? 

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    Enygma
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    #179192

    You guys and your voluntarism. Bridman won PGA and DGA and is winning picture and director(plus it’s art), Boyhood is really just lefty gimmick by school of rock director. Read and listen to Inarittu and you will surely know who the artist is here and who’s not.

    Boyhood should not win anything imo. I was flabergasted when a bunch of you here were saying it should win best script. I mean WTF??? 

    BTW, how do you “experts” fail to anwser how badly the Boyhood promotion is going and how smoothly they did the Birdman campaign. I bet both races wont even be that close. 

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