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If there still were only 5 Best Picture nominees…

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  • Brennan Merone
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    What do you think the nominees would/should have been if the Academy had kept the threshold at five?

    Here is what I think the nominees would have been each year since the change:

    2010: Avatar/The Hurt Locker/Inglourious Basterds/Precious/Up in The Air

    2011: 127 Hours/Black Swan/The King’s Speech/The Social Network/True Grit

    2012: The Artist/The Descendants/Hugo/Midnight in Paris/The Tree of Life

    2013: Argo/Django Unchained/Les Miserables/Life of Pi/Lincoln (this one was the toughest)

    2014: American Hustle/Dallas Buyers Club/Gravity/12 Years A Slave/The Wolf of Wall Street

    2015: Birdman/Boyhood/The Grand Budapest Hotel/The Imitation Game/Whiplash

    2016: The Big Short/Mad Max/The Martian/ The Revenant/Spotlight

    2017: Arrival/Hacksaw Ridge/La La Land/Manchester By The Sea/Moonlight

     

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    Riley
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    This thread has been done several times before (please search next time), so I am not going to comment on past years again, but this year is really a tricky one. La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are obviously top three.

    Then I would go with Arrival. I know that Amy Adams was snubbed, but it did get DGA, which matches up with Best Picture better than anything. It also won WGA and ACE, so it definitely had the support of those branches. And it won sound editing, so there was passion for it within the academy. It got eight nominations, including kind of random stuff like production design. Its only other snub was visual effects, which was a panel vote, so we can discount that.

    The fifth is where I cannot really decide between Lion and Hacksaw Ridge. And if the nominations vote had been a few weeks later, Hidden Figures would be in contention too. But with hindsight, it is clear that Hidden Figures was too late. You do not get snubbed via preferential ballot for costume and production design nominations, then win both guild awards (over Oscar nominees) without visibility being an issue. Fences was already shaky, but if Denzel could not win, it really was not top five. Hell or High Water never won much of anything anywhere, so it can easily be discounted.

    Hacksaw Ridge has a number of things going for it. First is that the academy themselves like the film more than just about any other group, nominating Mel Gibson and giving it two wins. Plus it got a BAFTA, won MPSE and SAG stunts and was at least nominated for ACE, unlike Lion. Then again, its screenplay was snubbed by both the academy and WGA. I also like how it came out early, grossed a lot of money and appeals to the “steak-eaters” of the academy.

    Lion did not win any Oscars, but it won two BAFTAs, as well as ASC and DGA debut, so the industry support was certainly there. It is also Weinstein and sentimental, so very much the kind of film that the Oscars nominate. And although Gibson got the directing nomination, DGA nominated Garth Davis over Gibson and they are a better bellwether, given how small and elitist that academy directors’ branch is. Lion is also doing well enough at the box office, but it does seem to be peaking a bit late and perhaps too late to be top five.

    Neither got SAG ensemble, although both feasibly could have. They both got six nominations, which is strong, but both were also snubbed some places that they were competitive. It is tough to say; these are definitely our fifth and sixth, no higher and no lower.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    I am going to make a bold prediction.

    If there was only five nominees, Toy Story 3 would be the only other animated film other than Beauty and the Beast to break through. It had near-unanimous critical approval, made over a billion dollars, had a genius campaign strategy, and honestly I think it deserved it.

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    Bruno Gabriele
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    2010
    1. The Hurt Locker
    2. Avatar
    3. Inglorious Basterds
    4. Precious
    5. Up in the Air

    2011
    1. The King’s Speech
    2. The Social Network
    3. Inception
    4. Toy Story 3
    5. True Grit

    2012
    1. The Artist
    2. Hugo
    3. The Descendants
    4. Moneyball
    5. The Help

    2013
    1. Argo
    2. Life of Pi
    3. Les Misérables
    4. Lincoln
    5. Silver Linings Playbook

    2014
    1. 12 Years a Slave
    2. Gravity
    3. American Hustle
    4. Dallas Buyers Club
    5. Captain Phillips

    2015
    1. Birdman
    2. Boyhood
    3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
    4. Whiplash
    5. The Imitation Game

    2016
    1. Spotlight
    2. The Revenant
    3. The Big Short
    4. Mad Max: Fury Road
    5. Room

    2017
    1. La La Land
    2. Moonlight
    3. Manchester by the Sea
    4. Hacksaw Ridge
    5. Arrival

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    jasonface
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    2009
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglourious Basterds
    Precious
    Up in the Air

    2010
    Black Swan
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    Toy Story 3

    2011
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris
    The Tree of Life

    2012
    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    2013
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    Nebraska
    12 Years a Slave
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Imitation Game
    Whiplash

    2015
    The Big Short
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    The Revenant
    Spotlight

    2016
    Arrival
    La La Land
    Lion
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202027409

    I hadn’t seen this thread before so it’s cool that it has come back around. I agree with most of the choices above. My selections that are a little different below:

    2010: Avatar/The Hurt Locker/Inglourious Basterds/Up/Up in The Air*

    2011: The Social Network*/Toy Story 3/The Kids are All Right/The Fighter/Inception (this one was tough!)

    2012: The Artist/The Descendants*/Hugo/The Tree of Life/ 50/50 (I know it wasn’t even in the running but thought it should have been)

    2013: Argo/Life of Pi/Lincoln/Zero Dark Thirty/Silver Linings Playbook*

    2014: American Hustle/Nebraska/Dallas Buyers Club*/Captain Phillips/Her (this one was tough too)

    2015: Birdman*/Boyhood/The Imitation Game/Whiplash/Selma

    2016: Spotlight/Brooklyn/The Martian/Mad Max/Love & Mercy* (I know the last one wasn’t in the running also but I thought it was sadly overlooked in a very weak year)

    2017: Hidden Figures*/Arrival/Hell or High Water/La La Land/Jackie (again I know it wasn’t in the list but should have been!)

    *Are the ones I would have voted for as Best Picture

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    Problemchild
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    #1202027413

    2016
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight

    2015
    The Big Short
    Brooklyn
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    Spotlight
    The Revenant

    2014
    American Sniper
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Whiplash

    2013
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    Nebraska
    The Wolf of Wall Street
    12 Years a Slave

    2012
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Life of Pi
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty

    2011
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    The Help
    Hugo
    The Tree of Life

    2010
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    2009
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Basterds
    Precious
    Up In the Air

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    Paul Hardister
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    #1202027415

    Here’s the original thread I think, but it only goes through 2012:
    http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/if-there-were-only-5/

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    Noé
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    #1202027524

    There are times when I feel like I want the Academy to go back to 5, then I think of The Reader and the moment pass.

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    jasonface
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    #1202027565

    I always liked the expanded Best Picture decision but too much crap gets in so I’d really prefer 5 again. Makes a nomination more prestigious.

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    SN
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    2009: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air

    2010: Black Swan, The Fighter, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit

    2011: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life

    2012: Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

    2013: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Wolf of Wall Street

    2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything

    2015: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Spotlight, The Revenant

    2016: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

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    Macca
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    #1202027584

    2016
    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Manchester By the Sea
    Moonlight

    2015
    The Big Short
    Mad Max: Fury Road
    The Martian
    The Revenant
    Spotlight

    2014
    Birdman
    Boyhood
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Imitation Game
    Whiplash

    2013
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    Her
    The Wolf of Wall Street
    12 Years a Slave

    2012
    Argo
    Django Unchained
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty

    2011
    The Artist
    The Help
    Hugo
    The Tree of Life
    War Horse

    2010
    Black Swan
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    2009
    Avatar
    District 9
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Basterds
    Up In the Air

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    Bee
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    #1202027587

    2009: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air

    2010: Black Swan, The Social Network, The King’s Speech, True Grit, Toy Story 3

    2011: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris

    2012: Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirtt

    2013: 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, The Wolf of Wall Street, Her

    2014: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, American Sniper (I hate to say it)

    2015: Spotlight, The Revenant, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian

    2016: Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Arrival

     

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    2009:
    1. Avatar
    2. The Hurt Locker
    3. Precious
    4. Inglorious Basterds
    5. Up in the Air

    2010:
    1. The Social Network
    2. The King’s Speech
    3. Toy Story 3
    4. Inception
    5. The Fighter

    2011:
    1. The Artist
    2. Hugo
    3. The Descendants
    4. Midnight in Paris
    5. The Help

    2012:
    1. Lincoln
    2. Argo
    3. Life of Pi
    4. Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Amour

    2013:
    1. 12 Years a Slave
    2. Gravity
    3. American Hustle
    4. The Wolf of Wallstreet
    5. Dallas Buyers Club

    2014:
    1. Birdman
    2. Boyhood
    3. The Grand Budhapest Hotel
    4. The Imitation Game
    5. The Theory of Everything

    2015:
    1. Spotlight
    2. The Big Short
    3. The Revenant
    4. Mad Max: Fury Road
    5. Bridge of Spies

    2016:
    1. La La Land
    2. Moonlight
    3. Arrival
    4. Manchester by the Sea
    5. Lion

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #1202028088

    Ten is a good number but if there were only five there wouldn’t be preferential ballots and is very likely that The Hurt Lucker, 12 Years Slave, Floplight and Moonlight probably would not have won.

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