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If there were only 5…

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  • BrokenFan
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    #80535

    I personally don’t like the extension of Best Picture nominees from 5 to “at most 10”, eventhough I still think Dark Knight/Wall-E was wrongfully snubbed for the dreadful The Reader back in 2008. 

    So let’s pretend we didn’t have this non-sense, for the last three ceremony who do you think would have made the final 5 (with a ranking of the votes they received) ?  Would they just correlate with the best director categories? What would you have liked to see as the final five out of the 9 – 10 nominees? Also, what about this year out of all the contenders?

    IMO

    2009: 

    The Hurt Locker
    Avatar
    Inglourious Basterds
    Up in the Air 
    Precious

    2010:

    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    Inception
    The Fighter
    Black Swan

    2011:

    The Artist
    Hugo
    The Descendents
    Money Ball 
    Tree of Life

    2012 (perhaps): 

    Argo
    Zero Dark 30 
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Play Book
    Les Miserables

    (Pook is going to hate me, but I think Argo will pull off a win) I still haven’t seen Zero Dark 30 out of the list. 

    Share your thoughts 

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    AroundU
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    #80537

    In some cases more than 5 spots are needed like in 2010. In 2011 I would have used your list but swapped Tree of Life (hated it) with Midnight in Paris. This year there could easily be 10 spots again.

    1. Zero Dark Thirty
    2. Lincoln
    3. Argo
    4. Les Misérables
    5. Silver Linings Playbook

    6. Life of Pi
    7. Django Unchained
    8. Moonrise Kingdom
    9. The Master

    10. Amour

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    Manu L
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    #80538

    2009 – I think there is no doubt these are the top 5, matching 5/5 with Best Director:
    Avatar
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglourious Basterds
    Precious
    Up in the Air

    2010 – King’s Speeck, Social Network and The Fighter take the top 3 slots. Then it’s Inception, Black Swan and True Grit  for the two remaining slots. Inception and Black Swan were snubbed in key categories: Inception missed Director and Editing (!), Black Swan missed Writing (and Supp Actress) and only got 2 tech nominations. True Grit only missed Editing, but didn’t win a single Oscar. I think True Grit’s whopping 10 nominations make it a safe bet, with Inception barely taking that fifth slot over Black Swan.
    The Fighter
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    True Grit

    But it’s a tough one, and I even think an argument can be made for The Kids Are All Right taking the last slot, as many indie comedies have done in the past decade (Juno, LMS, Sideways…).
     
    2011 – The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo and Midnight in Paris are in. These 4 movies were nominated in every category they were supposed to, and none of them went home empty handed. The other nominee that didn’t go home oscarless was The Help and its the obvious choice for the last spot. But it was only nominated by the Actors branch, everyone else snubbed it, and its loss in Best Actress is another indication that it was weaker than we thought. 
    So who could replace it? Could be The Tree of Life, but it strikes me as the type of film that gets nominated for BD but missed BP in a field of five, just like Diving Bell and Mulholland Dr. A more logical choice would be Moneyball, which was nominated for BP by every major precursor except BAFTA. The problem is if it were as strong as to be included in a field of five, its director would have also been recognized, in my opinion. So I’m stiking with the consensus, with Moneyball a close #6:
    The Artist
    The Descendants
    The Help
    Hugo
    Midnight in Paris

    2012 – We don’t know yet, but these are the five frontrunners right now:
    Argo
    Les Misérables
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Les Mis and Silver Linings could still fall out of the top 5 (while still getting nominated in an expanded field). One or both of them could still be replaced by Django and/or Life of Pi, but for the moment those 5 are the strongest ones. 

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    allabout oscars
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    #80539

    if 2012 were to have just 5 best picture nominees,
    i think these would be them….

    argo
    lincoln
    silver linings playbook
    zero dark thirty
    les miserables..

    no bickering over…. the master, life of pi, django unchained, beasts of the southern wild and amour…

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    Jake
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    #80540

    2009:
    1. The Hurt Locker
    2. Avatar
    3. Inglorious Basterds
    4. Precious
    5. Up in the Air
    ——
    6. An Education
    7. A Serious Man
    8. Up
    9. District 9
    10. The Blind Side 

    2010:
    1. The King’s Speech
    2. The Social Network
    3. The Fighter
    4. True Grit
    5. Toy Story 3
    ————
    6. Black Swan
    7. Inception
    8. The Kids Are All Right
    9. Winter’s Bone
    10. 127 Hours  

    2011:
    1. The Artist
    2. Hugo
    3. Midnight in Paris
    4. The Descendants
    5. The Tree of Life
    ——–
    6. The Help
    7. Moneyball
    8. War House
    9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 

    2012 predictions
    1. Lincoln
    2. Zero Dark Thirty
    3. Argo
    4. Silver Linings Playbook
    5. Life of Pi
    ——-
    6. Les Miserables
    7. Django Unchained
    8. The Master
    9. Amour
    10. The Hobbit 

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    Madson Melo
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    #80541

    2009:

    The Hurt Locker
    Avatar
    Up In the Air
    Precious
    Bastards Inglorious

    2010:

    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    The Fighter
    True Grit
    Black Swan

    2011:

    The Artist
    Hugo
    The Descendants
    Midnight In Paris
    Moneyball (or The Help in the way Chocolat did, for example)

    2012:

    Lincoln
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Life of Pi
    Argo
    Les Miserables (alt.: Silver Linings Playbook)

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    Benedick
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    #80542

    The switch to 10 (or however many now) nominees has really taken most of the fun out of predicting this category, and hasn’t yielded the sort of diversity they were hoping for.

    2009 seems straightforward – the directing nominees probably also would have been the top 5.

    2010 is tricky. TKS and TSN clearly, and with 10 nominations, True Grit must have been up there too. The Fighter likely. I don’t think Inception would have been a nominee – no directing or editing, big misses. It’s either Black Swan, which had a passionate following but performed slightly less well than expected in nominations, or perhaps the more AMPAS demographic friendly Kids Are All Right for that last slot – wouldn’t have surprised me.

    Last year The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants all went right in; Midnight in Paris is the next reasonable guess because of its directing and writing nods, though Bullets Over Broadway did even better and didn’t get a BP nod. As popular as The Help was, with only acting nominations outside its Best picture bid, it’s difficult imagining it got a nomination over Moneyball, which scored 2 acting nods, writing, editing, and sound. This is the year I’d be most interested to know which were the top 5.

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    babypook
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    #80543

    I am a solid fan of the 5-10 rule. All I need do is take a look at the front runners. Noone can tell me, that Argo, deserves a spot up there. And yet, it will be there and it even has a marginal chance of winning.
    Ah-hahaha! I just noticed that comment by the thread starter about Argo. But really, this is the common reaction from AMPAS. Where the hell, are the REAL achievements in film this year? See any amongst the contenders? HA.

    Let there be up to ten. And yes, this year, with the rule changes, ten is just as likely as the ten the first year it changed. Let the griping continue.

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    Anonymous
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    #80544

    2012:
    Argo
    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Silver Linings Playbook

    2011:
    The Artist
    Hugo
    The Descendants
    Midnight in Paris
    The Help

    2010:
    King’s Speech
    Social Network
    The Fighter
    True Grit
    Toy Story 3

    2009:
    The Hurt Locker
    Avatar
    Inglourious Basterds
    Up in the Air
    Precious
                             

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    BrokenFan
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    #80545

    For me though the extension works only on certain years. This year for instance where theres a lot of worthy winners imo the extension might help out films that otherwise won’t be noticed but deserves to be short listed like The Master or even Amour. This happened with 2010 nominees too. However the list also tends to attract these really random and strange nominees like the blindside and as we can see last year the list wasn’t that impressive I mean the help? Extremely loud? War horse? I’ve seen these and I don’t consider them at all to be award worthy. I know others might see it otherwise but They were passable at best.

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    babypook
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    #80546

    For me though the extension works only on certain years. This year for instance where theres a lot of worthy winners imo the extension might help out films that otherwise won’t be noticed but deserves to be short listed like The Master or even Amour. This happened with 2010 nominees too. However the list also tends to attract these really random and strange nominees like the blindside and as we can see last year the list wasn’t that impressive I mean the help? Extremely loud? War horse? I’ve seen these and I don’t consider them at all to be award worthy. I know others might see it otherwise but They were passable at best.

    You didnt have to edit out your comment about Argo and babypook. I wasnt offended at all. Besides, if Argo manages a win, it would probably make a lot of middle American people quite happy.

    I dont think it’s possible to come up with a consensus anything when it comes to nominated films anyways.

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    pacinofan
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    #80547

    2009:

    The Hurt Locker
    Avatar
    Up In the Air
    Precious
    Inglorious Basterds

    2010:

    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    Black Swan
    The Kids Are All Right
    The Fighter

    2011:

    The Artist
    The Descendants
    Hugo
    Midnight In Paris
    The Help

    2012:

    Lincoln
    Argo
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi

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    Laactingnyc
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    #80548

    2011

    1. Tree of Life ( My personal Choice )
    2. Hugo
    3. The Artist
    4. The Help
    5. The Descendants

    2012

    Lincoln
    Les Miserables
    Life of Pi
    Django Unchained
    The Master ( My Personal Choice )

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    Riley
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    #80549

    2009 (had to be these):

    • Avatar
    • The Hurt Locker
    • Inglourious Basterds
    • Precious
    • Up in the Air

    2010 (Inception missed directing and editing and Black Swan still got both of those):

    • Black Swan
    • The Fighter
    • The King’s Speech
    • The Social Network
    • True Grit

    2011 (seems pretty hard to win screenplay without a picture nomination, so Midnight in Paris is in, especially with its directing nomination; Moneyball seemed to have a lot of momentum and The Help could not manage writing, directing or any technical nominations):

    • The Artist
    • The Descendants
    • Hugo
    • Midnight in Paris
    • Moneyball

    2012 (I think that people are underestimating Django Unchained because everyone had already decided what their predictions were before it came out; Silver Linings Playbook is picking up lots of accolades and is The Fighter, The Descendants and Up in the Air rolled into one; no critic on Metacritic has given Les Misérables higher than a 90, so the love for that is being exaggerated):

    • Argo
    • Django Unchained
    • Lincoln
    • Silver Linings Playbook
    • Zero Dark Thirty
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    PJ Edwards
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    #80550

    Agreed with demonhog. The range of divisiveness of Les Mis tells me that it wouldn’t be able to stick in a 5 pic field. 

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