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Is BSA Oscar race over after Ali's win at SAG?

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  • Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998908

    Hello guys, I wanted to know your view on this: do you think Best Supporting Actor Oscar race is over after Ali’s win at SAG? For some reason I still think Mahershala is kind of a vulnerable Oscar frontrunner. I think that Dev Patel really has a strong chance of winning BAFTA at home turf. If he does this, I feel that Mahershala would still be the frontrunner for the Oscars, but I think Patel would have a path to victory at the Academy Awards if he wins the BAFTA.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201998910

    Not quite. If Dev Patel wins at BAFTA, which he well might, there’s a chance he could spoil for the Oscar. People who’ve won only SAG out of the major precursors are sometimes vulnerable. (Critics Choice doesn’t count.) If BAFTA wants to award Jeff Bridges because they didn’t for Crazy Heart, then that could potentially presage an Oscar upset too, but probably not. Hugh Grant or ATJ winning BAFTA would make an Ali victory even easier.

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    Riley
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    #1201998914

    For all of the talk about Moonlight being weak at BAFTA, it did still manage a Best Film nomination, which is more than Lion can say.

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998917

    I see your point, but I don’t see Ali winning the BAFTA. Jenkins didn’t get directing nom; I think it would have been too much to snub Moonlight for BP, Jenkins for BD and Denzel for BA… you know what I mean 😉

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998918

    Thanks for your input. I agree with that. Do you think Patel has the best chance at BAFTA if Ali doesn’t win there?

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998920

    For all of the talk about Moonlight being weak at BAFTA, it did still manage a Best Film nomination, which is more than Lion can say.

    I see your point, but I don’t see Ali winning the BAFTA. Jenkins didn’t get directing nom; I think it would have been too much to snub Moonlight for BP, Jenkins for BD and Denzel for BA… you know what I mean 🙂 Sorry I didn’t quote you before, I’m new to this.

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998921

    Thanks for your input. I agree with that. Do you think Patel has the best chance at BAFTA if Ali doesn’t win there?

    Thanks for your input. I agree with that. Do you think Patel has the best chance at BAFTA if Ali doesn’t win there?

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998922

    Thanks for your input. I agree with that. Do you think Patel has the best chance at BAFTA if Ali doesn’t win there?

    Thanks for your input. I agree with that. Do you think Patel has the best chance at BAFTA if Ali doesn’t win there?

    F**k me

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    Mad Max Guitarist
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    #1201998923

    Well, BAFTA might goes to hometown boy Dev Patel, but I don’t think he stands a chance to beat Ali at the Oscars. It reminds me when Bridges swept all the precursors for Crazy Heart in 2010 and then Colin Firth got a consolation prize at the BAFTA. Ali is a lock

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201998930

    I know Ali won the SAG, but I still refuse to consider him a lock just because he does NOTHING in MOONLIGHT. It’s one of the most undeserving wins we are having this derby and he has stolen Trevante Rhodes and Ashton Sander’s slot.

    I had mentioned this when the Oscar nominations came out that Patel may ride the Bafta to the Oscars, but Ali winning SAG definitely makes him stronger.

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998936

    I know Ali won the SAG, but I still refuse to consider him a lock just because he does NOTHING in MOONLIGHT. It’s one of the most undeserving wins we are having this derby and he has stolen Trevante Rhodes and Ashton Sander’s slot.

    I had mentioned this when the Oscar nominations came out that Patel may ride the Bafta to the Oscars, but Ali winning SAG definitely makes him stronger.

    Yup. I agree with the “it makes him stronger”. However, I just can’t see him winning at BAFTA. Bridges’ character might be “too American” for the British, and Patel has the “playing at home” factor. I have the feeling Ali is as weak as someone can be with his win at SAG and Critics’. Also, diversity is also “Asia”, not just “black”. Imagine what a great story for the Academy to “justify” themselves: Viola Davis, Dev Patel and Affleck/Denzel (I lean towards Denzel) all coming out with Oscars. It might be just my imagination, though 🙂

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1201998951

    I know Ali won the SAG, but I still refuse to consider him a lock just because he does NOTHING in MOONLIGHT. It’s one of the most undeserving wins we are having this derby and he has stolen Trevante Rhodes and Ashton Sander’s slot.

    I had mentioned this when the Oscar nominations came out that Patel may ride the Bafta to the Oscars, but Ali winning SAG definitely makes him stronger.

    Yup. I agree with the “it makes him stronger”. However, I just can’t see him winning at BAFTA. Bridges’ character might be “too American” for the British, and Patel has the “playing at home” factor. I have the feeling Ali is as weak as someone can be with his win at SAG and Critics’. Also, diversity is also “Asia”, not just “black”. Imagine what a great story for the Academy to “justify” themselves: Viola Davis, Dev Patel and Affleck/Denzel (I lean towards Denzel) all coming out with Oscars. It might be just my imagination, though

    It’s not just your imagination though. I am kind of thinking on the same lines. The Academy may be incredibly tempted to give it to Patel if he wins Bafta – It’ll actually be a deserved win (unlike Ali’s) and it’ll be great for diversity.

    Patel needs to win Bafta though. If anyone but Patel wins it, Ali is (sadly) locked at the Oscars.

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    Victor John Ryan
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    #1201998984

    I totally agree. I think if he wins at BAFTA people will start scratching their heads and won’t consider Ali a lock.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201998993

    I don’t see Ali as quite a Davis-level lock but boy, his chances sure do look good. Bridges needed to upset last night to have a prayer at the Oscars and, with Hedges and Shannon on the sidelines, only Patel probably has a shot, slight as it may be. He’d indeed need BAFTA.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    Djoko
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    #1201999009

    Wait till BAFTA to decide who your pick will be. Ali is not a lock just yet.

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