Is Carol being underestimated at the Oscars?

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  • Brij Johnson
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    #206323

    Todd Hayne’s debatable masterpiece has been landing around 5th place in the rankings yet I can’t help but feel that pundits are significantly underestimating it’s chances– especially with no clear frontrunner. Several factors work in its favor. The overdue director narrative (and Haynes is America’s leading queer auteur), the Weinstein machine, topical subject matter, and the pair of performances that have been honored throughout awards season. The film is the highest rated film of the year and clearly a critical darling. It is the only film not to have faltered at any of the precedent nominations so I pose the question: Why is everyone treating Carol like it isn’t serious competition?

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    manakamana
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    #206325

    I think it’s being fairly estimated. It has the passion to be nominated, but doesn’t appear to have the consensus to win.

    I do wish someone like Todd Haynes had a better shot to win for his immaculate craftsmanship, but it seems the nomination will be his reward. 

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    FilmGuy619
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    #206326

    I don’t think so. Will it get nominated? Sure. But I don’t think it’ll win. Some voters might find it to be too chilly. We also have another 50’s period drama about a department store clerk in love with Brooklyn, which has more charm to it and Carol is very unsentimental and doesn’t have a real charm to it although it is a great movie. 

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    OnTheAisle
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    #206327

    Why is everyone treating Carol like it isn’t serious competition?

    I don’t think everyone is – just those who can remember the Academy’s refusal to honor Brokeback Mountain as Best Picture. The world may have changed in the last ten years, but I am not so sure that the Academy has.

     

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    Damiansport1
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    #206328

    I think Carol is way better than Brooklyn.

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    taloson
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    #206330

    I think it’s being slightly underestimated. It’s barely even talked about by the GoldDerby editors for some reason. Unfortunately romance films (even those with straight people) just don’t do well anymore with Best Picture so I don’t think it’s winning, but I think it’s top 5 definitely. It has Weinstein behind it, charming stars, the support of the production design/costumes group in the Academy and huge critical acclaim. There’s Q&As and interviews all over the place and it’s had months upon months to build buzz. 

    It could also WIN for Mara, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes and Score (and maybe even Haynes) and yet it’s barely talked about. What gives? 

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    Jason Travis
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    #206331

    I think Carol was a very beautifully done movie, but I did not connect with the characters. Blanchett aside, none of the other actors exuded believable emotions and with Mara especially I just felt like I was looking at a doll. I think it still will be a Best Picture nominee, but I don’t see it getting as many nominations as originally planned. I could be in the minority. I felt Far from Heaven deserved the Best Costume Design Oscar in 2002, and it wasn’t even nominated. Those designs Julianne Moore donned stood out in breathtaking lights. Blanchett was also luminous in the attire, but they weren’t as memorable. In fact, Blanchett looked her sexiest in Blue Jasmine with costumes by Suzy Benzinger (also wrongfully overlooked). That’s because that movie was contemporary, and it’s very rare for voters to cite a movie’s wardrobe unless it’s taking place in the past. 

    Back to Carol, like Far from Heaven it was critically well received. But on Oscar morning, it couldn’t even manage a deserved nod for Dennis Quaid in supporting actor. Granted, back in 2002 there were only 5 slots for best picture. Had there been an expanded field, I’m sure Far from Heaven would have squeezed in. 

    Carol is doing well at the box-office considering it’s 189 theater count (when does it go wide? I haven’t seen any expanded release date for it). In terms of Oscar voters, I still think Haynes is vulnerable for a directing nod- especially with the crowded field and The Big Short getting closer to a best picture rival for Spotlight (meaning Adam McKay is in). I also think, since I wasn’t impressed with the screenplay, that the writing nod is shaky. I think Blanchett is getting a Lead nod. Mara may or may not make it in Supporting. 

     

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    Lord Freddy Blackfyre
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    #206333

    I don’t think that the words Carol and masterpiece can be in the same sentence. Actually none of the contenders for best picture is really above average and IMO only Room, The Revenant and The Danish Girl reach levels of excellence but far from masterpiece level. 

    Carol is a very good movie with really good performance by Cate Blanchett, Roony Mara and Sarah Paulson. 

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    Riley
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    #206334

    I have said all season that Carol is being overestimated.

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    Tonbone
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    #206335

    [quote=”BrijJohnson”]Why is everyone treating Carol like it isn’t serious competition?

    I don’t think everyone is – just those who can remember the Academy’s refusal to honor Brokeback Mountain as Best Picture. The world may have changed in the last ten years, but I am not so sure that the Academy has.

    EXACTLY THIS. Thank you thank you. I was just gonna say I don’t recall a precedent for the Academy honoring a gay love story this much when last year not a single woman director or writer was nominated.

    [/quote]

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    Ryan Lapierre
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    #206336

    Carol has no chance of winning. It’s sure to get a good chunk of nominations but it won’t win the big prize. I think at this point I’m a little hesitant to put it in just because of all the craziness going on right now. But I still have it in there.

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    Jason Travis
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    #206337

    I will appreciate it if Carol makes it into categories like Best Picture, but won’t be too upset if it misses. Again- this has to do with me hearing so much about it for months in advance. I also think Blanchett is wonderful, but it’s not a necessary nod (like Lawrence in Joy; in fact, if both Blanchett and Lawrence miss, I wouldn’t be surprised. I would be annoyed that Blanchett lost out more than JLaw). 

    I see Carol secure for the following nominations:

    Best Actress (Blanchett)
    Best Supporting Actress (Mara)
    Best Art Direction
    Best Costume Design

    I see it solid for –

    Best Picture
    Best Cinematography
    Best Original Score

    I see it shaky for-

    Best Director
    Best Adapted Screenplay 

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    benbraddock
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    #206338

    I’m predicting Carol for picture, adapted screenplay, 2 acting noms, costumes, arr direction, cinematography

    7 is excellent

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    Maxwell
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    #206339

    It’s definitely safe for Picture – this is probably the most acclaimed film of the year after Spotlight, even if it’s nowhere near showy or sentimental enough to win. I think Haynes is definitely safe for a Director nomination. Let’s not forget, the director’s branch skews arty. This is the branch that nominated Zeitlin and Haneke over Affleck and Hooper. Plus, he’s overdue, and he fulfills a niche none of the other frontrunners (excepting perhaps Spielberg) can fill. Innaritu won last year, McCarthy’s a newcomer and his work isn’t flashy, and Scott and Miller directed, well, action films, albeit very well-received ones.
    The Weinsteins have handled the Mara campaign horribly, and a vote splitting snub isn’t out of the question; I mean, really, you can’t even argue she’s a supporting actress in this film. But I think she’ll probably get in somewhere, and Blanchett’s a solid third in lead.
    This is a beautifully crafted movie, and Art Direction, Costume Design, Original Score, and Cinematography will reward it as such. The only problem I see is in Adapted Screenplay. Phyllis Nagy hasn’t been picking up a lot of the precursors we’ve expected her to, and the script doesn’t have quite as much flair as films like Steve Jobs and The Big Short, nor the literary heft of Room‘s Emma Donoghue and Brooklyn‘s Nick Hornby. But she could still definitely get in.

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    Joe Burns
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    #206340

    I think it’s being underestimated a little bit, it shouldn’t be left out of the discussion, but it’s hard to see the Academy awarding it Best Picture given the fact that it’s an artsy film with a gay love story at the core. It will most likely do fairly well with the Academy though on nominations morning. 

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