Let’s discuss Daniel’s excellent article …
The numbers are pretty clear. I think that the winner is definitely going to be SAG nominated, but I think it’s a close enough race this year that we could see a variety of precursor winners, and the Oscar could go to someone else.
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Yeah, in the cases mentioned in the artlce — if someone’s placed in lead by SAG who ends up winning the Supporting Oscar, or if you just won the year before and then assaulted a man with a phone just in time for momentum to go elsewhere.