January 31, 2017 at 2:16 pm #1202000217
We have two groups of people. Those who believe La La Land will win all categories but Actor (probably believing that the suspicious Golden Globe sweep is an indicator of a sentiment), and those (like me) who like to analyze category by category.
Of the visual tech categories, I think that La La Land is safe to win Cinematography, Editing and Production Design. I am not so sure about Costume Design. I thought I was alone on this, but I’m seeing many pundits (here and elsewhere) also skeptical that sweep mentality will apply to this category.
Most of them seem to believe Jackie is the strongest to take it down. I can see that. But my guess is that Florence Foster Jenkins has very showy costumes and could upset. LLL, Jackie and FFJ all got into CDG and Bafta, so we’ll have some clues soon, but please share your thoughts.January 31, 2017 at 2:23 pm #1202000227
The Critics Choice winner has won Costume every year, which means as of now Jackie seems to be the one. The Academy loves period dramas in costume design, so I don’t see why Jackie is vulnerable here. But, given the overrated love for La La Land, I don’t know what’s going to happen.January 31, 2017 at 3:00 pm #1202000248
My guess is whoever wins BAFTA will win the Oscar as well.January 31, 2017 at 6:33 pm #1202000379
Jackie doesn’t really strike me as a typical costume winner. It’s mostly recreations of famous Jackie Kennedy outfits, with a few elegant gowns on some of the other women, but nothing that eye-popping in terms of original design. I actually have Florence Foster Jenkins down as a spoiler for the CDG Period Film award, but I doubt that’s winning the Oscar either. La La Land, despite being contemporary, fits the mold of recent winners that not only won Production Design as well, but contained scenes with crowds where you could observe all the various costume designs at once. Alice in Wonderland, The Great Gatsby and The Grand Budapest Hotel are good examples; Anna Karenina is a similar type except it lost Production Design (unfairly in my opinion). It might not even matter than La La Land doesn’t have period garb when there are primary-coloured outfits everywhere popping out at you. Previous contemporary musicals West Side Story and All That Jazz also won Costume Design.January 31, 2017 at 6:48 pm #1202000390
Not in the slightest. The only categories it is vulnerable in are Sound Editing and Best Actor for Ryan Gosling. Other than that, La La Land is golden everywhere.January 31, 2017 at 6:49 pm #1202000393
No. Next.January 31, 2017 at 6:57 pm #1202000402
Not in the slightest. The only categories it is vulnerable in are Sound Editing and Best Actor for Ryan Gosling. Other than that, La La Land is golden everywhere.
Oh come on, it’s at least vulnerable in Original Screenplay, unless it manages to beat Manchester and Moonlight at WGA. I currently have Manchester for WGA and LLL for Oscar.January 31, 2017 at 8:03 pm #1202000468
Yes. I don’t think “La La Land” will simply win everywhere it’s nominated. Here would be one of those places.February 1, 2017 at 3:03 am #1202000649
The costumes in La La Land are brilliant. The yellow dress for A Lovely Night, the white dress in the epilogue ballroom dance, Seb’s suits all incredible.
Jackie does a good job of recreating looks, but La La Land deserves it for the DESIGN of the costumes.February 1, 2017 at 3:31 am #1202000664
I am predicting Colleen Atwood for Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them. I think that Joanna Johnston’s Allied costumes are the only ones that have no chance at winning the Oscar. It is rare for contemporary costumes to win, yet Mary Zophres could break the trend esp. if La La Land sweeps. This is a category where films that only win one Oscar can win: Marie Antoinette and Anna Karenina come quickly to mind. So Jackie (Madeline Fontaine) and Florence Foster Jenkins (Constanta Boyle) both could win. I found the Fantastic Beasts design elements to be truly deserving and I think it will be competitive for both Oscars it is nominated for, Production Design and Costume Design. So for me this a “weak” prediction, one I don’t feel fully confident in making, but I am still sticking with Colleen Atwood.February 1, 2017 at 4:58 am #1202000677
This is a weird category, because the frontrunner La La Land is considered a contemporary film. Actually it takes a lot of inspiration from the Golden Age of cinema (30s-50s) while mixing it with current trends making it semi-contemporary. What’s more, it is a crowd piece that is very flamboyant and colorful, it almost seems random but is actually very precise color coding costuming. (Emma Stone wears blue during the Someone in the Crowd scene to balance out her red hair.) La La Land is also set to sweep, making a small category like this susceptible to the frenzy around the film.
Jackie, the other frontrunner, who at this point I am expecting to win, is a period drama, but not the kind that is usually in this category. While previous years have decided to give this award to films that usually predate the First World War, Jackie shows the pinnacle of 60s fashion. As Jackie O was a fashion icon, probably the most influential FLOTUS in this area, it makes sense that Jackie would win. It is essentially a recreation of the actual dresses that Jackie wore, meticulously crafted to be seen as authentic. The issue here is that while these are exact recreations, they are not original designs, which doesn’t completely take it out of the running, but might hurt its chances.
Then there’s the Harry Potter spin-off. Fantastic Beasts gives off a new vibe for HP as it is a regeneration of the roaring twenties. Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s/Sorcerer’s/Kidney Stone is the only Potter film to date to have been nominated for its costumes at the Oscars, apart from this one, which could allow the voters in this branch to finally recognise the brilliance of the costuming in those films. Also, the costume designer of Fantastic Beasts is Colleen Atwood, who has won previously for films such as Chicago, Alice in Wonderland and Memoirs of a Geisha. This year she also designed for Alice Through the Looking Glass, and the Academy might want to award her for this too.
IMO, FFJ has the best costumes of them all, because they are detailed and beautiful and take on all aspects of costume, not just dresses but also accessories. It may also have a lot of what this branch is looking for in designs; embroidery, period designs, rich materials. It is a very rich film with rich costuming.
Finally, Allied. No. It is too much like La La Land to get a win, and is not as colourful. It pushed out the film I thought would get into this category (Love & Friendship) which was by far a better representation. They would normally go for pre-1900s fashion but not this year, which is very uncharacteristic of the costuming branch.
Overall, Jackie and La La Land are fighting over this category, as the others don’t really have a chance against either. Three of the five nominees are for films with a Best Actress nomination, and FB is the only one to not have a female lead. The statistic about the Critics Choice is interesting, but with a juggernaut as big as La La Land, it could prove to be broken. The CDGs and BAFTA are the two awards left for this category, so it all rides on them.February 1, 2017 at 5:07 am #1202000679
I will be happy with any of the four films (Fantastic Beasts, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie or La La Land) winning the Oscar (: They are all truly deserving of the award (:February 1, 2017 at 6:11 am #1202000695
The costumes in La La Land are brilliant. The yellow dress for A Lovely Night, the white dress in the epilogue ballroom dance, Seb’s suits all incredible. Jackie does a good job of recreating looks, but La La Land deserves it for the DESIGN of the costumes.
According to you La La Land deserves everything. Did you see any other film this year but La La Land?February 1, 2017 at 6:18 am #1202000697
I think the reason why Jackie is in great position to win this category is because the clothes are as essential to the story as the Score and Portman’s performance. The pink suit with the blood is like another character in the film.