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January 13, 2018 at 11:35 am #1202466444
Hi. new here! Been following Gold Derby stuff for a while now and finally made an account.
I know Frances McDormand & Saoirse Ronan are the two main actresses being considered for the Oscar mostly because of their recent wins at GG and CC, but I really wish Sally Hawkins would be in the conversation more despite losing the recent awards. Maybe it is just wishful thinking because I absolutely loved Shape of Water, but watching Hawkins as Elisa gave me the same heartwarming feeling that lingered well after I had finished watching the film, similar to when I watched Emma Stone in LaLa Land. And like with Emma Stone, I can’t imagine anyone replacing Hawkin as Elisa and play that role to the same emotional degree as her.Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)ParticipantJanuary 13, 2018 at 11:52 am #1202466455
Hawkins is definitely still in this race. McDormand is the SAG frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sally pulled off the upset there.January 13, 2018 at 12:00 pm #1202466458
Hawkins just isn’t in the conversation because the overdue starlet and the already recognized veteran have already made this contest a two person race. Only Robbie is waiting in the wings for a vote split.January 13, 2018 at 12:01 pm #1202466459
Welcome to Gold Derby Magic47 🙂
Sally Hawkins needs to win SAG or BAFTA to have a chance. If that happens, the love people have for The Shape of Water could help if it gets multiple wins on Oscar night. (Ronan actually surprisingly lost to Robbie for Critics Choice in Best Actress in a Comedy. Robbie was great in I, Tonya and she produced the movie so the award was well earned. With one win each, Ronan and Robbie are still in the race.)
Frances feels unstoppable at this point with the Gloden Globe and Critics Choice win. On the podcasts, people mention Frances doesn’t campaign so that may hurt her. However, I feel like that Globes speech was enough of a campaign to win. She doesn’t need to do anything else. That thunderous applause for Frances at the Globes ceremony was also a sign for what looks like a sweep this year.Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)ParticipantJanuary 13, 2018 at 12:08 pm #1202466466
@paulhardister If Frances wins the SAG, this race may very well be over. Sally could win the BAFTA, but it’ll be too little, too late. Frances does have a lot of love in the industry (as the applause she got at the Golden Globes proved), so beating her at SAG won’t be easy.Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)ParticipantJanuary 13, 2018 at 12:18 pm #1202466469
No. Sally Hawkins couldn’t even win the Critics Choice where her film won Director and surprisingly Picture. Her film got snubbed for SAG Ensemble. She will get nominated, but she is the definition of an “also-ran” in this Lead Actress race. Frances McDormand is easily winning SAG. Even if Sally wins Bafta, it won’t make any difference for her Oscar chances.January 13, 2018 at 12:26 pm #1202466472
@m Is Ronan all that overdue, though? I mean, she’s only 23 years old.
It’ll be her third nod and she’s under 25.January 13, 2018 at 12:31 pm #1202466477
What I don’t want is the Academy to turn Ronan into Winslet 2.0. Avoid that by awarding her now on nomination three.January 13, 2018 at 12:34 pm #1202466479
I like Lady Bird quite a lot, but I would have rather seen her win for one of her first two nods. The nominations are good enough for now, especially considering the competition. She’s not in Amy Adams territory.Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)ParticipantJanuary 13, 2018 at 12:45 pm #1202466488
I know McDorumand is notorious for not being a campaigner (which doesn’t matter anyways cuz she got the cool factor), but do we know if Hawkins is campaigning currently? I know she typically doesn’t campaign for awards also, but lately I have seen her on James Corden (for Paddigton 2 I think), so I’m wondering is she actually trying now. If she does, will it help boost her? If I remember correctly, Meryl Streep & Viola Davis were duking it out, and Streep came out on top Oscar night because she actually tried campaigning to get it. Same with the race between Redmayne & Keaton, with Redmayne coming out top cuz he campaigned.
January 13, 2018 at 12:53 pm #1202466494
- This reply was modified 1 week, 1 day ago by Magic47.
I like Lady Bird quite a lot, but I would have rather seen her win for one of her first two nods. The nominations are good enough for now, especially considering the competition. She’s not in Amy Adams territory.
Adams doesn’t have win worthy nods. Ronan is win worthy for Brooklyn and Lady Bird.January 13, 2018 at 12:55 pm #1202466495
@m Still, though, it’s not like she’s Michelle Williams.
Only difference is Williams has one more over Ronan come nomination morning. And those two are very different actresses. Williams does not fit neatly as a consensus cause. Though she would have swept if not for Davis and category fraud last year.January 13, 2018 at 12:57 pm #1202466498
I agree, I don’t really see Ronan as overdue. I think she’s well known in the indie/awards circuit, but to the mainstream audience, I think Lady Bird might be their first real exposure of her. So in that way, I don’t see her as like a Jennifer Lawrence-type because Lawrence was inescapable that year, whereas Ronan is still not as well known as Lawrence was in the year she won. I definitely think she’ll win eventually, but for a meatier role that would be inescapable even for mainstream audiences.
- This reply was modified 1 week, 1 day ago by Magic47.