Is Selma the new Argo? Can it pull off an UPSET at the Golden Globes?

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    benbraddock
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    #169119

    Tom,
    I say no….Argo won because of the AFFLECK  snub coupled with the fact
    that Spielberg was not going to win again for s “history” lesson..
    Selma would need to beat  BOYHOOD OR IMITATION GAME or even
    BIRDMAN… those 3 films are astonishingly original and all 3 seem like
    best picture winners…If Selma got nominated for picture without DuVerney
    i dont hink it would cause a stir in the academy…
    and Selma is a bit boring in the first hour and only rises to the occasion at
    the end…certainly not a perfect film…conventional wisdom says that another
    African American themed film will not win back to back…
    the academy TRIES to seem diversified….

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    CAROL-CHANNING
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    #169120

    I really don’t see how Argo and Selma are alike.  Argo opened earlier in the year and held a frontrunner status the whole time.  I would say it held THE frontrunner status the whole time except for the 12 hour period after Affleck got snubbed by the Oscars and then won the Critic’s Choice that same day.

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    Sharon1
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    #169121

    Hey Tom, are we going to get any slugfests from the Editors at Gold Derby this year? 

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    Milk Money
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    #169122

    Tom, I certainly think it can.  Not only is it a critically acclaimed biopic with star producers (Oprah), but It’s hands down the best pic I’ve seen this year.  The timing is impeccable, too.

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    KyleBailey
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    #169123

    I don’t think it is Argo because Argo came out in October and had alot of buzz and then it dropped as new stuff came in and it didn’t really get back in the game until it won Critic’s Choice and the Globes. Selma has been this big secret and question mark for a long time and then they dropped the trailer on us and it is just now getting the buzz. I do think that current events will help (it’s sad that that is the way it will help) but Boyhood will be hard to take down. It’s number one on like every critic’s Top 10 list and it has been the talk of the town since July 

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    Troye
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    #169124

    I personally don’t see how Selma is similar to Argo.

    Still, as far as the Oscar race is concerned, Selma I would agree is in second place after Boyhood (I doubt Birdman would have broad support outside of possibly many #1 votes of passion), and can certainly win in the end if things begin swaying its way.

    At this point though, Boyhood is still way up front: it is a critics darling (and does not have problems like Zero Dark Thirty and The Social Network had with the Academy). In other words, I feel like while this is the critics darling, it is also something that is going to be loved by the Academy. Of course, we still have a long way to go, but right now I’d say it’s still the favorite to win at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice and especially the DGA — those three should pretty enough to propel the film to a Oscar BP win. If it loses one of these (Golden Globes the most likely), it certainly will lose a little momentum. If it loses two of them, and Selma is the one that takes its place in both races, then maybe I’d start predicting Selma as my top pick. Stll, the DGA is the best barometer of them all, and I have a hard time seeing anyone other than Linklater rewarded there.

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #169125

    I do have Selma in my #1 position, above Boyhood.

    I haven’t seen the film yet, but I haven’t heard a single bad thing about it. With it’s late release, I don’t see it being the Argo of this year, but more being the film that picks up enough speed to actually win from the momentum at the right time. Each year, there are late releases that get a lot of nominations with fewer precursors. These don’t usually end up winning, but Selma really feels different. I can imagine Boyhood winning, but if Selma is as terrific as people suggest, then it can absolutely take BP away from it. Linklater will probably still win Director, no matter what.

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    AMG
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    #169126

    The thing is, this year there are four films I’d say with universal acclaim: Boyhood, Birdman, Selma & Foxcatcher.
    The other films have had significant detractors arguing against them. 

    In the case of Argo & Lincoln, the lead only changed temporarily in the race after initial screenings of Silver Linings, Les Mis & Zero Dark Thirty. Other than that, it was a two horse race between Lincoln & Argo. This year, it is a two horse race, seemingly, between Boyhood & Birdman.

    If I were to compare this year to a recent Oscar race, I’d be tempted to go with Avatar v The Hurt Locker. Take away the David & Goliath battle, and the exes competing against one another. They were the two leading competitors, and there was small murmurs of either Inglourious Basterds or Precious doing very well, and maybe sneaking up the rankings, which this year could be Selma or Foxcacther.  

    Also, I don’t think this year is like other recent ones, as the technical categories are looking to spread their wealth more. Recently, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo & Inception have been the biggest winner (numerically) on the night. Interstellar seemed to be going that way, but editing/cinematography etc., look to go to different films, and the biggest winner will likely be either Birdman or Boyhood. 

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    Nessie
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    #169127

    Haven’t seen Selma yet. Is it actually good or a case of a noble, admirable subject trumping cinematic excellence? We already have two of those in the race: Theory of Everything and Imitation Game.

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    FilmGuy619
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    #169128

    I say no because it might be stuck in the shadow of 12 Years A Slave since they both are films dealing with racism. 

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    GraemeONeil
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    #169129

    Selma might win…but reading that article I have no idea how it’s the new “Argo”. Argo was a film that came out in early fall with solid/great reviews that manage to stand the test of time and watched other frontrunners fall by the wayside on the way to the Oscars, and it triumphed.
    At this point, basically no one has seen Selma, so no one has an opinion on the film.
    I don’t understand how the comparison between the two works other than it’s convenient for a headline?
    I’d love for Tom to explain. 

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    Tom O’Neil
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    #169130

    Selma might win…but reading that article I have no idea how it’s the new “Argo”. Argo was a film that came out in early fall with solid/great reviews that manage to stand the test of time and watched other frontrunners fall by the wayside on the way to the Oscars, and it triumphed.
    At this point, basically no one has seen Selma, so no one has an opinion on the film.
    I don’t understand how the comparison between the two works other than it’s convenient for a headline?
    I’d love for Tom to explain. 

    Argo’s victory at the Globes changed the dynamic of the Oscar race. I don’t think there was any way it could’ve won the top Oscar without its upset at the Globes first. That gave us a chance to see the film and its helmer act like real winners in the mass media, giving Oscar voters permission for vote for it next. That’s what can happen with Selma. In all likelihood, it won’t win anything prior to the top Globe. Then, possibly, that could change everything.

    Or do you disagree and believe Argo would’ve won at the Oscar without its double victories at the Globes? I just can’t see that. I think this is one of those cases where the Globes had clear impact on what won the Oscar next. What do YOU think?
     

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #169131

    ^Argo’s Globe win certainly set its victory into motion, but if Affleck hadn’t won all the directing awards leading up to the ceremony, then it wouldn’t have stood a chance. If Selma wins, I can absolutely see that shaking up the race in the same way. It will need to win other big awards after that though, like the pga or dga. I think Boyhood has a better chance in those ones at the moment, so Selma would really need a Globes win to stop that train.

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    seabel
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    #169132

    Tom, Argo’s win at the Globes wasn’t an upset.

    We need to revise the “upset” meaning, don’t we? 

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