January 7, 2013 at 3:06 am #81939
A good friend who will remain name-less encouraged me to post this, so here goes.
Last year countless people and critics alike were saying and i quote “The Tree of Life isn’t going to make it” and for good reason it missed all the telling precursors like, GG, SAG DGA, PGA, WGA. Yet on oscar morning to everyone’s surprise, mine included it made it into the two biggest categories (picture and director).
So simply put does Paul Thomas Anderson have enough admirers in the academy ala Terrence Malick to get himself and his film (which missed PGA, ADG, SAG yes Hoffman made it and GG director and picture) into the major categories?
And are we under-estimating Harvey Weinsteins pull? Can he really get a 3rd film into the best picture race?January 7, 2013 at 5:00 am #81941
If there are 10 BP spots available, then The Master is in. PTA , however, will have hard time getting inside. With Spielberg, Affleck and Bigelow taking first 3 spots and Ang Lee probably getting in, he will need to fight with Tarantino and Hooper for last one. Django is gaining momentum and got boost from Globes, and there is stil a lot of people who will go for Les Mis, so he is very long shot. But overall The Master is going to do better then Tree of Life with 2 acting(Hoffman, Adams) nominations, screenplay, cinematography and maybe editing.January 7, 2013 at 5:15 am #81942
The precursor awards mean, sometimes, nothing.
True Grit. 0 Golden Globe Nominations. 10 Oscar Nominations.January 7, 2013 at 9:12 am #81943
It’s for sure this year’s True Grit, Black Swan type. Maybe not as revered as Malick, but PTA has gained a lot of love/respect in the business. Plus it’s more of an actor movie with Phoenix, Adams, Hoffman.
Is it maybe wishful thinking that PTA will get in director? Perhaps, but though it hasn’t had a fantastic showing during the awards season, the fact that PTA won Los Angeles Director, and the film is constantly in the loop and runner-up, means it’s still in the voter’s mind.
Also, ever since Boogie Nights, PTA has received 3 screenplay nods, 1 director nod, and 1 picture nod. You can argue that if we had 10 nominees, there would have been a good chance that Boogie Night and Magnolia booked Picture nods in their years. Other than Sandler, who did receive a Globe nomination, during that same span-an actor has also received an Oscar nomination. The Academy obviously thinks of PTA highly, so it’s a hopeful sign that the movie will do well.
Feinberg, who is very accurate, with Best Picture has it in at the 9-10 slot.
January 7, 2013 at 9:31 am #81944
I think Amour has a bigger chance of getting the ‘Tree of Life’ spot than ‘The Master’January 7, 2013 at 9:48 am #81945
It’s a good comparison, even with the three main actors in contention. Both were very polarizing movies, but many critic lists had both movies at #1 of the year, so I’m sure there’s support out there among academy voters. PTA has a lot of credibility in the industry, I assume, so I could at least see him getting a Best Director nomination. In the past 10 years or so, they’ve nominated David Lynch for Mulholland Drive, Mike Leigh for Vera Drake, Paul Greengrass for United 93, Julian Schanbel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, and the previously mentioned Malick. None of their movies were really in contention for a Best Picture win but got in on industry respect and I think more than anything else, The Master is a director’s movie. He’s fighting Tarantino for the 5th position at the moment (I just can’t see O’Russell or Hooper getting in) so we’ll see.January 7, 2013 at 9:52 am #81946
If it means that The Master will overperform on nomination morning, just like Tree of Life did, than I say absolutely yes. The Master will get BP, Director is possible though less likely, probably three acting nominations, screenplay and some techs.. Amour could also take almost everything mentioned above.. It will be one of the two.January 7, 2013 at 10:39 am #81947
No. Tree of Life did not have it’s lead actor call the awards circuit BS. Unlike TOL, Master is cold, unflinching, and really doesn’t say much. Weinstein has 2 other big horses to push so any nominations it gets will be on it’s own accord.January 7, 2013 at 10:59 am #81948
I thought this had a possibility of being the “Tree Of Life” of the year, but I think “Amour” stands a better chance.January 7, 2013 at 11:00 am #81949
My sense is that TToL had much more passion going for it than The Master.
And TToL had much less competition from outside the box/indie type films (a lot of Academy members will never vote for these), while The Master has Amour, Beasts and Moonlight to compete with.
Doesn’t mean The Master won’t get in, but I’d put it in no better than 11th or even 12th place at the moment.
I think Master could easily end up with only one acting nomination and original screenplay, and even those aren’t locks.January 7, 2013 at 11:18 am #81950
The thing about thinking that The Master will take The Tree of Life‘s spot assumes that The Tree of Life‘s spot even still exists this year. For all we know, there could be just five nominees for Best Picture.January 7, 2013 at 12:47 pm #81951
Damned. PTA deserves a spot in the show-cased films shoved down voter’s throats. And once again, I am compelled to say that The Master, has more creative skill and is far riskier than say, Argo and Ben freaking Affleck, who is disappointing me with his lack of imagination with every film he’s put out so far.
But, since Argo and Benben arent going to fall by the wayside, it’s going to be a struggle. Still, PTA has quite a record with Oscar in the few films he’s made.