Is The Revenant Really the Best Picture Favorite?

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  • Nick Spake
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    #211592

    Everyone seems to be deeming “The Revenant” this year’s inevitable Best Picture winner. Is it really a lock for the Academy’s top prize, though? Check out my latest feature where I take a look at the big picture:

    http://www.flickreel.com/nick-picks-why-the-revenant-may-not-be-a-lock-for-best-picture/

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    Andrew Carden
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    #211595

    I don’t really get the sense at all “The Revenant” has been deemed something of a shoo-in – I don’t think it’s in any stronger a position than say, “Babel” was at this point in the Oscar race. It certainly could win, given DiCaprio’s inevitability, its likelihood to pick up a few technical prizes and the decent possibility Inarritu repeats, but I still think “Spotlight” has the edge, with “Mad Max” more or less in the same spot as “Revenant” and then “Big Short” just a bit behind in 4th. I think it’s extremely difficult to make an argument for any of the others, however.

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    wehan6
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    #211596

    Please no.The movie was just fine to me. Spotlight was spectacular. It deserves to win.But so did Boyhood last year and then they gave it to Birdman.

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    24Emmy
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    #211597

    We’ll find out on Saturday with PGA. The Big Short? Mad Max: Fury Road? The Revenant? Spotlight? One will stand up as the clear favorite then.

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    Chevi
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    #211598

    There is no favourite at this point.
    Also I don’t think Mad Max has many chances, it missed SAG and BAFTA alongside acting nominations and script. Also it’s an action sci-fi (even if it’s the best I have seen in a long time).

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    Anonymous
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    #211600

    I think it’s Spotlight. But man I wish Room could win.

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    Cheshire
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    #211601

    I haven’t seen The Revenant yet. I have a feeling that it is not a concensous movie, I can’t remember who said it first, but someone brought up you need a concensous to win.

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    KyleBailey
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    #211602

    People are reading way too much into that Globe win. And the box office numbers too! Guess what last mintue movie took the January top box office last year, American Sniper. People freaked out over that one too and it got 1 award. Spotlight is still in it to win it. I kind of brushed off that Birdman PGA win last year but I won’t make the same mistake twice this year. It’ll be their word that makes the most sense to this race. Plus my mother (and myself) couldn’t stomach alot of the scenes in Revenant so I hardly imagine it will play for everyone. Spotlight can actually be played in front of everyone (maybe except extreme evangelicals) 

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    babypook
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    #211603

    People are reading way too much into that Globe win. And the box office numbers too! Guess what last mintue movie took the January top box office last year, American Sniper. People freaked out over that one too and it got 1 award. Spotlight is still in it to win it. I kind of brushed off that Birdman PGA win last year but I won’t make the same mistake twice this year. It’ll be their word that makes the most sense to this race. Plus my mother (and myself) couldn’t stomach alot of the scenes in Revenant so I hardly imagine it will play for everyone. Spotlight can actually be played in front of everyone (maybe except extreme evangelicals) 

     

    Way to go, Kyle.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #211604

    I don’t think it is. Globes aren’t Oscar voters.

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
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    #211605

    Uh… yeah. Because it’s the best film of the year.

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    Rooney Moore
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    #211606

    Yep, The Revenant is not a movie for everyone. It’s either a love it or hate it movie. But unlike critics, the industry do not actually have to watch these films before voting. Everyone loves Leo. It’s been a long time coming. And everyone talks about how big and epic cinematic achievement The Revenant was. The reviews are not bad. And it’s been… what, 2 years with awarding movies with no guns in it? That’s a very long period for the Academy. So why not award the movie with Leo in the same night if there isn’t any other obvious opportunity.
    Birdman was’nt a movie that could be adored by everyone, either. It looked extremely divisive on paper. But Boyhood peaked too early. And the ones that found it boring and pointless didn’t hesitate to vote for the closest alternative.
    Same thing could happen to Spotlight. 

    The only thing that goes against The Revenant is obviously the lack of support from writers branch (And no, I don’t buy that they didn’t nominate it because it didn’t have much dialogoue. If Spotlight could get a directing nom, or Room can be considered as a spoiler in Adapted Screenplay category; The Revenant had no excuse. There were 10 open slots. It just wasn’t subtle enough to impress those choosy writers.)
    But do writers branch really have that much power? Even Sound branch is bigger than them in terms of membership numbers. If all the rest of the Academy rally behind TR and they prefer Spotlight, the result would be a no-brainer.

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    Moviebuff22
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    #211607

    That’s more disturbing to me then the Academy’s “racism”. I’m curious to how many people vote based on what they hear and don’t actually watch half of these movies. Now that’s a system that needs an overhaul. One of my mother’s best friends is in the academy and she told her that the reason she voted Mathhew Mccounahay over Leo and Chiwetel Ejiofor was because of his “work in true detective”. Jesus Christ. That’s the kinda people that vote on this stuff.

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    Eli Weinmann
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    #211608

    This is my first post ever on this site. YAY

    I think the Revenant got a boost from winning the Golden Globe and being the most nominated film of the year. But if you look at the statistics from the past 10 years, the film that won either Golden Globe for Best Picture has won the Oscar for Best Picture only 4 times out of the past 10 (2008, 2011, 2012, 2013). So that’s only 40% of the time. Also if you look at the past 10 years and the films that received the most nominations, the most nominated film only won Best Picture 4 times, also 40% (2007, 2009, 2010, 2014). So based on that, it doesn’t mean much that The Revenant won the Golden Globe or recieved the most nominations. 

    I believe that the real indicator of who will win Best Picture is the film that wins PGA, SAG and DGA. The Best Picture winner at the Oscars has won at least 2 guild awards in the past 10 year, the exceptions being 2005, 2006 and 2013.

    With that said, I think Spotlight still has a slight lead over The Revenant, and will probably come out on top come Oscar night. 

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    Birdienest89
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    #211609

    I know that 75 percent of Oscar nomination leaders/co-leaders tend to win Best Picture, but after the 2004 ceremony, only four films have Best Picture after being the nomination leader or co-leader (No Country for Old Men, The Hurt Locker, The King’s Speech, and Birdman).

    Granted, The Revenant has two BIG stats it has to overcome in order to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
     
    1) No film has won Oscar Best Picture without a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble since Braveheart in 1996 (Keep in mind that was when the SAG Ensemble was first introduced). 

    2) No film has won Oscar Best Picture when that film missed screenwriting nominations at BOTH the Oscars AND WGA since 1948’s Hamlet. Titanic was the last Best Picture Oscar winner without an Oscar screenwriting nomination, but it still had a nomination at that year’s WGA Awards for Original Screenplay.

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