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Is this year's Best Actress race the hardest to predict in recent memory?

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  • Gabe Guarin
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    #1202465938

    Sally Hawkins deserves to win. I hope the Academy stops being full of no-brainers and vote for her.

    I’m betting on Hawkins for SAG. I expect McDormand will win BAFTA based on an overdue factor. I just feel like there might be a last-minute switch in the Best Actress race, especially with how unpredictable this Oscar season has been.

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    Riley
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    #1202465954

    It feels like Hilary Sank all over again. Both Frances and Hilary have VERY memorable first wins. I can see Frances sweeping every televised award show besides BAFTA, similar to Swank.

    Not seeing it.  Million Dollar Baby was shut out by BAFTA because it had not come out and they did not send screeners.  Three Billboards over-performed in nominations and will probably win Best Film.  Swank has never won a BAFTA either…

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1202465965

    Hawkins at SAG? No way that happens with The Shape of Water absent in Ensemble.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    eastwest
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    #1202465984

    Juicy J GIF

    This is Frances award. I didn’t care for the movie, but she was excellent.

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202465989

    Hawkins at SAG? No way that happens with The Shape of Water absent in Ensemble.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

    Frances McDormand, Susan Sarandon, Sandra Bullock, and Halle Berry each won SAG Lead Actress over two women who were in Ensemble-nominated films.

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    Sasha
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    #1202466000

    I have finally seen Aus dem Nichts and my god, Diane Kruger should be the one sweeping awards. What A PERFORMANCE. Wow.

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    sofan
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    #1202466064

    I have finally seen Aus dem Nichts and my god, Diane Kruger should be the one sweeping awards. What A PERFORMANCE. Wow.

    She was good but the movie is horrible that is her biggest obstacle. If the movie was good the critics would have rallied around her a la Huppert last year.

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    sitizoner
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    #1202466161

    She was good but the movie is horrible that is her biggest obstacle.

    And yet In The Fade won both the Globe and Critics Choice, and shortlisted for the Oscar. I just don’t understand.

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    sofan
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    #1202466164

    And yet In The Fade won both the Globe and Critics Choice, and shortlisted for the Oscar. I just don’t understand.

    Bad movies can, and do, win awards too. It is all about how you present them. I saw the movie there is not an ounce of originality to it, everything goes as one would expect and it doesn’t have a voice of its own. It just repeats everything that people have seen. Maybe it is the familiarity aspect that they like, or that it is about race and ethnicity so it strikes a different cord. Or the people were so lazy and didn’t watch any of the nominees and just checked off the one that is being campaigned.

    I’ve seen about 20% of Foreign contenders and if they were going by merit BPM (France) and Men Don’t Cry (Bosnia & Herzegovina) would be contenders.

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    M
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    #1202466177

    Why does this keep getting brought up? There is no conspiracy to deny anyone a second Best Actress trophy at SAG.

    No. But voters are possibly conscientious about spreading the wealth.

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    Teridax
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    #1202466187

    Robbie is the only one that I can see upsetting McDormand. My article explains her path:


    By Riley Chow, Gold Derby (January 8)

    Phantom Thread and The Post made headlines when neither received a single Screen Actors Guild Award nomination. The snubs were high-profile, but unsurprising in light of the films’ hasty production timelines, which resulted in the nominating committee receiving their DVD screeners weeks after voting had opened—inexplicably around the same time that the committee received screeners of I, Tonya. The fact that Margot Robbie and Allison Janney were nominated anyway speaks volumes about what formidable contenders they are.

    The first industry organization to announce nominations annually, SAG is infamous for snubbing late-breaking contenders; this tends to account for their few annual discrepancies with the Oscars. I, Tonya, Phantom Thread and The Post were among the last seven out of 64 films that the SAG nominating committee received this year. Unlike Phantom Thread and The Post, I, Tonya had been widely seen by the press by the time that SAG was voting, so its vulnerability went unreported.

    But to SAG voters, these were three films that would not go into limited release until December and which they had not received on DVD. There had been special I, Tonya screenings, but the nominating committee comprises 2500 members spread across the country, hence screeners are crucial. (The whopping nineteen regional screenings of The Post held specifically for the SAG nominating committee proved insufficient.)

    The Hateful Eight, Joy and The Revenant were the late-breaking major contenders that faced similar visibility issues with SAG two years ago. Although these films would go on to a combined four acting nominations at the Oscars, as well as a Best Picture nomination for The Revenant, they scored only a single SAG nomination, for Leonardo DiCaprio of The Revenant. He went on to win the SAG and Oscar.

    American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street were the late-breaking major contenders four years ago. This pair went on to a combined six acting nominations at the Oscars and Best Picture nominations for both, but only two SAG nominations: for its cast and for supporting player Jennifer Lawrence, both for American Hustle. SAG ultimately awarded the cast prize to American Hustle and although Lawrence lost both the SAG Award and the Oscar to Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave, it was a photo finish. Among others, Lawrence notably won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe, the AACTA International Award and the National Society of Film Critics Award for her performance.

    Not all of the SAG nominating committee saw The Revenant or American Hustle, but DiCaprio, Lawrence and the latter’s ensemble were such consensus favorites that they appeared on enough ballots anyway. If history is repeating itself, it is going unnoticed in Gold Derby’s aggregate predictions. Robbie ranks fourth for SAG and fifth for the Oscar; Janney ranks second for both, trailing Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird.

    Why couldn’t Saoirse Ronan win the SAG? I get your case for Robbie, but Ronan has gotten in everywhere she needed to, her film was nominated for SAG Ensemble like Robbie’s, she won the Globe like McDormand (though she didn’t make as much of her speech as the TB star), and she is the “it girl” of this awards season like Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Natalie Portman were in very recent previous years. In the end, of course it won’t matter because McDormand is such a lock, but just for fun I still like to try and figure out who is coming in 2nd place. I think it is Ronan, but what are your thoughts on all that?

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    GusCruz
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    #1202466193

    Three Billboards over-performed in nominations and will probably win Best Film

    I’m thinking it takes British Film and The Shape of Water (which maybe didn’t OVER-perform, but still got the most nominations) wins Film

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    Spark87
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    #1202466203

    One thing has came to my mind. Who’s gonna present the Award this year? Since the rumour is Casey Affleck (who has more than one sexual harassment suit against him) may not be invited to hand the Oscar for another actress (and I’m pretty sure the winner Actress is not going to accept the Oscar if it’s handled by Affleck).

    Maybe the previous winner DiCaprio? or some of the last year nominees? Goslin, Washington, Garfield, Mortensen? or maybe a woman?

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by  Spark87.
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by  Spark87.
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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202466220

    Stay informed with our weekly Newsletter

    Maybe someone like Forest Whitaker can do the honors.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202466222

    Three Billboards over-performed in nominations and will probably win Best Film

    I’m thinking it takes British Film and The Shape of Water (which maybe didn’t OVER-perform, but still got the most nominations) wins Film

    I don’t see Three Billboards winning both British Film and Best Film. I think that Darkest Hour will win the former and Three Billboards will win the latter.

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