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  • babypook
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    #57035

    Well, this may be an expensive train wreck, or an entertaining adaptation of the Edgar Rice Burroughs series.

    I’ll be going to see it, anyways.

    BOX OFFICE MOJO
    Forecast: Judgment Day Arrives for ‘John Carter’
    by Ray Subers

    John Carter
     

     

    March 8, 2012

    With a budget estimated at around $250 million and a marketing campaign that never really seemed to connect, John Carter‘s box office prospects have been a source of ceaseless speculation among movie journalists for most of the last year. That all comes to an end this weekend when the movie goes before actual audiences at 3,749 locations nationwide, 290 of which will be presenting the movie in IMAX (a 3D location count is not currently available). Silent House (2,124 theaters) and Eddie Murphy comedy A Thousand Words (1,890 theaters) also open this weekend, though the battle for the top spot will be between John Carter and last weekend’s box office sensation The Lorax.

    John Carter‘s rocky journey to the big screen has been widely reported on, and Box Office Mojo has already covered its bizarre marketing effort in the March Preview. Since then, though, dire tracking numbers resulted in a last minute shift in the campaign. Nearly all commercials for the past week or two have featured the following voiceover: “Before Star Wars, before Avatar, there was John Carter. From the studio that brought you Pirates of the Caribbean…” Those are very bold references—collectively, those two franchises and Avatar have earned over $11 billion worldwide. Unfortunately, making comparisons to those widely-loved properties only further reinforces how incoherent John Carter looks.

    Another last hope for John Carter was that Disney’s marketing department just did a poor job, and that the movie itself was actually quite good. Unfortunately, while it has received some nice marks from the fanboy crowd, reviews on the whole haven’t been kind—it’s hovered around 50 percent fresh all of Thursday afternoon on Rotten Tomatoes.

    By dating the movie at the beginning of March, Disney was surely targeting an opening similar to past early March genre fare 300 ($70.9 million) and Watchmen ($55.2 million). All signs point to a debut more in line with 10,000 B.C. ($35.9 million) and Battle: Los Angeles ($35.6 million), which was fine for both of those movies but not very impressive for a movie as heavily marketed as John Carter.

    While all the media attention will be on John Carter, there are two other nationwide releases this weekend as well. From the makers of Open Water ($30.6 million), Silent House is a real-time, “single shot” horror movie that premiered at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival and was ultimately picked up for distribution by Open Road Films. Elizabeth Olsen (younger sister of Mary Kate and Ashley) plays a character being terrorized in the titular house. Unfortunately, whatever menace is coming after her hasn’t been clearly identified—is it some kind of supernatural being, or is it a bunch of home invaders? It seems to be of the home invasion variety, which puts it in the same arena as March 2009’s The Last House on the Left. That movie opened to $14.1 million at more locations, and Silent House will likely end up below that mark.

    A Thousand Words was shot way back in 2008, but sat on the shelf for years while star Eddie Murphy appeared in a handful of disappointing movies like Imagine That ($16.1 million) and Meet Dave ($11.8 million). Those movies opened at over 3,000 locations, while A Thousand Words is being released in to fewer than 1,900 theaters. Still, advertisements have clearly articulated the main premise (Murphy’s character only has 1,000 words left until he dies), and so an opening around Imagine That‘s $5.5 million is within reach. Based on tracking, Paramount is currently projecting between $6 and $8 million for the weekend.

    While it’s not technically getting a nationwide release (that requires 600 or more theaters), Friends with Kids is opening at 374 locations and is receiving a substantial push from Roadside Attractions. Cast members like Jon Hamm, Adam Scott and Megan Fox have been doing the talk show rounds, and at least in the Los Angeles market commercials are getting decent airtime. Reuniting what seems like half of the cast of Bridesmaids (including Kristen Wiig), the Jennifer Westfeldt movie should be an attractive date night choice for adults.

    Salmon Fishing in the Yemen gets a limited release this weekend in 18 theaters. CBS Films, which to this point has only released movies on a nationwide level, is hoping that the movie generates strong word-of-mouth which will allow for a substantial expansion over the next few weeks.

    Weekend Forecast (March 9-11)
    1. The Lorax – $43.5 million (-38%)
    2. John Carter – $38.9 million
    3. Silent House – $10.5 million
    4. Project X – $9.9 million (-53%)
    5. Act of Valor – $8 million (-41%)
    A Thousand Words – $5.7 million

    Bar for Success
    Ignoring its outlandish budget, John Carter has been marketed so aggressively that it really ought to be opening at least in the mid-$40 million range. Silent House and A Thousand Words are both in fine shape over $10 million.

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    Scottferguson
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    #57037

    ‘John Carter’: Weak $500K Midnight Shows
    By NIKKI FINKE | Friday March 9, 2012 @ 8:35am PSTTags: Hollywood movie bombs, John Carter, Walt Disney Studios

    FRIDAY 8:30 AM: Even Disney is saying “it’s going to be a miracle” if John Carter‘s opening box office this weekend has a ’3′ in front of it. The studio is expecting only $24M-$30M despite a whopping cost of $250M. Box office for this bomb is making rival studios just a little too gleeful considering that probably 1,000 of their Hollywood brethren were gainfully employed on this turkey. So if ever a movie needed an autopsy report, this is the one. My dissection will post this afternoon. Watch for it. MORE

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    Chatan
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    #57038

    So,another Disney’s “Mars” failure? 

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    Carbon Based Lifeform
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    #57039

    Taylor Kitsch?  To open a $250M epic?  Seriously?

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    PaulHJR
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    #57040

    Disastrous, that overnight estimate.  That’ll be what The Hunger Games makes in the first 15 minutes past midnight when its screenings get going.

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    Boidiva02
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    #57041

    I know very little about this movie, almost nothing, except that based only on the trailer’s I’ve seen, it looks very much like a carbon copy of “The Prince of Persia” right down to Taylor Kitcsh being dressed very similar to Jake Gyllennhaal was, down to the long hair and everything.    The set’s look very similar, and also it looks very much like “Clash of the Titans” from a few years back.

    Basically it looks unoriginal and uninspired.  

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    dannyboy.
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    #57042

    I said the exact same thing! My friend was thinking about seeing this, as an entertaining popcorn flick tonight.. I said, ‘Hell no, I saw this movie last year with the Gyllenhaal. Let’s go see Elizabth Olsen.’ I am looking forward to Silent House, regardless of some of its reviews..

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    babypook
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    #57043

    O you brutal critics y’all! Lol.

    I’m seeing this anyways, probably tonight. For me it’s not the originality of the story so much, as how they tell it.
    Anybody else read these somewhat obscure novels from Burroughs?

    Critical reviews, incidental to me. Box Office, fingers crossed. I sense, a meh-ish bomb, but I am hopelessly optimistic for it. Overseas, anyone?

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    Scottferguson
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    #57044

    I’ve read Burroughs. Crudely written pulp that can be fun sometimes, but there is such a core of racism and white supremacy in his writings (which is well documented in his personal life) that they get very offensive quite quickly.

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    babypook
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    #57045

    i detected no such supremacy or racism in any of his Mars novels. Or Tarzan, for that matter.
    But, if you’re better and smarter than he was, and you’re looking for it and are removed from his world by a century, you just might find it. No allowances must be made.

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    Junk
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    #57046

    Critical reviews, incidental to me. Box Office, fingers crossed. I sense, a meh-ish bomb, but I am hopelessly optimistic for it. Overseas, anyone?

    Absolutely no interest to watch this movie, saw the trailer and meh..I’m probably checking out Chronicles though, heard great things from my friends on that one. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #57047

    His personal racism has been extensively written about,, including on sci-fi web sites and a recent lengthy biography that seemed to be extensively researched

    None of this will be in the film, which I sort of want to see.

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    babypook
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    #57048

    [quote=”babypook”]
    Critical reviews, incidental to me. Box Office, fingers crossed. I sense, a meh-ish bomb, but I am hopelessly optimistic for it. Overseas, anyone?

    Absolutely no interest to watch this movie, saw the trailer and meh..I’m probably checking out Chronicles though, heard great things from my friends on that one. [/quote]

    Yes I saw the ten-minute trailer and wasnt overly enthused. I think part of it for me is my loyalty to the genre and early, sic-fi writers; although I doubt Burroughs’ influence will be at all apparent in this. You’re far from alone in not having an interest, but I dont have the heart to wish ill for  it’s box office returns.

    When you say Chronicle(s) though do you mean the film? I really enjoyed it. I hope you do as well.

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    Carbon Based Lifeform
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    #57049

    I love sci-fi pictures (perhaps my favorite genre) although there are relatively few masterpieces and a whole lotta dreck.

    This one probably needs more than some meatball in a loincloth.  Jes’ sayin…

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    babypook
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    #57050

    ^
    Well maybe, but I just have to reserve my own judgement until after I’ve seen it, which will be in  a  few hours.

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