February 25, 2017 at 11:24 am #1202021720
I keep hearing about backlash from certain people in regards to La La Land and I’m wondering if that could affect the voting more than we think because Best Picture is on that preferential ballot. Is it possible if, like they theorized with The Revenant last year, that people will either be putting La La Land number 1 or number 9 (or at least very low), and then Moonlight could sneak in with a majority of 2 votes and some 1 votes as well? I’m sure this has been brought up before, but it’s been bothering me heading into Sunday! Thanks for the insight and help everybody!February 25, 2017 at 11:29 am #1202021764
Moonlight could def take Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Screenplay. And recently, movies haven’t been winning more than a few golden statues. The problem I have with backing Moonlight is that is lost the SAG Ensemble prize to Hidden Figures, which to me spells trouble and that the passion may not be as big. True, SAG is different then Oscar- but it’s interesting they decided to go a completely different direction there. La La Land still has 14 nominations and that’s a LOT of love.
I hope the backlash doesn’t effect it and it wins, as it deserves to.
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FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017February 25, 2017 at 11:40 am #1202021837
Ya, Moonlight and La La Land are both very deserving, but I’d hate to see Moonlight win on the back of more number 2 votes. To me that’s a flawed voting system. Looking at the odds La La Land is still a prohibitive favorite, so I’m probably just worrying for nothing.February 25, 2017 at 12:14 pm #1202021849
They might have a little backlash against LLL but I could still see it winning the BP. Academy voters love films about themselves. I could see it appearing mostly in their 2nd or 3rd place votes.
https://letterboxd.com/janbryan/February 25, 2017 at 12:24 pm #1202021855
Revenant became favorite only after Bafta s , La La Land is favorite since Toronto. Revenant lost prefential ballot because it was very violent , it is not the case with La La Land .
It will win very easily.February 25, 2017 at 12:26 pm #1202021856
I would say LLL has a 90% chance of winning, Moonlight and Hidden figures have a 4% chance, and the last 2% is split with the other 6 nominees.February 25, 2017 at 12:49 pm #1202021863
The big difference between La La Land and The Revenant is that The Revenant didn’t win PGA while LLL did. There were signs that the divisiveness of Revenant were affecting it, while that hasn’t shown with LLL.
With that being said, if LLL doesn’t win, I think Hidden Figures is slightly more likely than Moonlight to win. While Moonlight does have a lot of passion, it also has a faction of people who just don’t get it or don’t like the subject matter. Hidden Figures may not have a ton of passion, but everyone seems to like it a lot. I see it getting a lot of 2-4 votesFebruary 25, 2017 at 12:49 pm #1202021864
What this backlash has meant for a few good weeks now is that there will be no huge sweep, in other words, I’d be shocked if it won more than 9 awards (even 9 might be too high of a number as of now). It has alternatives for almost every category. Still think it’s winning Picture and Director though.February 25, 2017 at 1:15 pm #1202021872
I think it’s too late for the backlash to hurt it but you never know with the preferential ballotFebruary 25, 2017 at 1:38 pm #1202021877
So it sounds like I should stick with La La Land. Thanks guys
On a side note, I’d be fine with almost any movie winning except for Hidden Figures. It just felt like such a by the numbers hollywood movie hitting every familiar beat. So let’s go La La, Moonlight, or Manchester!February 25, 2017 at 2:03 pm #1202021888
I think is there were one other choice, the backlash might hurt it. Seems like if they wanted to respond to #Oscarssowhite, there are too many places to place your vote. I think Moonlight won’t be as much of a threat as everyone is saying. Just look at Brokeback Mountain and Carol. I would worry more about Hidden Figures. To tell you the truth, I think La La Land wins on the first round.February 25, 2017 at 3:05 pm #1202021935
The preferential ballot has made this a confusing race for me as well. I’m not going to stray from a La La Land prediction but there does seem to be way more vocal backlash against it as well as only mild enthusiasm. There seems to be a push for anything other than La La Land but I think the Oscar season is to early and to short to get momentum behind something like Moonlight. If this were a year where the Oscars were held in March I think there might have been a chance but not now.February 25, 2017 at 3:52 pm #1202022056
O’Neil himself had said that this so called LLL backlash is not real. Just a propo by some bloggers who are desperate to seem edgy and that they matter.