La La Land Vs. Moonlight: A Repeat Of Cabaret Vs. The Godfather?

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  • Alex Meyer
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    #1201994176

    La La Land got a whopping 14 Oscar nominations this morning, and is widely expected to win Best Picture. Moonlight is considered the best possible upset. Given that both won at the Golden Globes, that got me thinking: could we possibly have another Oscar race similar to the one between Cabaret and The Godfather in 1972?

    In 1972, Cabaret set the still-unbroken record of winning the most Oscars without winning Best Picture, 8 to be specific. It won many craft categories and some big ones like Best Actress for Liza Minnelli, Best Supporting Actor for Joel Grey, and Best Director for Bob Fosse. The Godfather only won 3 Oscars, but they were all big ones: Best Picture, Best Actor for Marlon Brando, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

    La La Land is expected to sweep in the craft categories and also win big for Emma Stone in Best Actress and Damien Chazelle in Best Director. That would give at least 8-10 Oscar wins. Moonlight is expected to win at least Best Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali and Best Adapted Screenplay. While La La Land still seems like the stronger Best Picture winner now, I can’t help but wonder if we could see Moonlight pull off a win like Spotlight did last year, thanks to the preferential ballot used when voting for Best Picture. Right now, I’m still predicting La La Land will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the alternative happens and if it ties with, or even breaks, Cabaret’s record of most Oscar wins without winning Best Picture. Do you guys think there’s a possibility of that happening too?

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1201994210

    As of now, I only have La La Land winning 8 awards for:

    Best Picture
    Best Director
    Best Production Design
    Best Cinematography
    Best Film Editing
    Best Sound Mixing
    Best Original Score
    Best Original Song

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    party.poison
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    #1201994212

    Emma Stone is a frontrunner though along with Natalie Portman. It’s pretty neck in neck.

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    Alex Meyer
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    #1201994249

    That’s why I’m anxious to see who wins at the SAGs and BAFTAs. Then we’ll have a good idea of who may win the Oscar.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201994305

    Eh, I’m less than convinced. If La La Land is winning eight Oscars, it is most certainly taking Best Picture to boot. It losing the top prize means, at most, it’s probably “only” taking something like Direction, Original Score and Sound Mixing. Also, The Godfather was better-positioned heading into Oscar night than Moonlight presently is. It took not only Drama Picture but also Director/Screenplay at the Globes and, of course, had the advantage of being a big, fat box office smash.

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    party.poison
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    #1201994318

    I guess they would want to spread the wealth in Best Actress since La La Land is already gonna take a mountain of awards.

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    Jeffrey Kare
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    #1201994326

    I would like to point out that La La Land is the first musical to have gotten nominated in both lead acting categories since the 1954 remake of A Star is Born back in 1955. Neither James Mason nor Judy Garland ended up winning that year. Best Actor went to Marlon Brando in On the Waterfront and Best Actress (famously) went to Grace Kelly in The Country Girl.

    I still think Natalie Portman has a good shot of winning. She has a more serious role, and she’s playing a real person. Every year, there’s always at least one person who wins an acting award for playing a real person.

    While yes, Emma Stone could go along for the ride as she does get to show off her singing and dancing skills in La La Land, but she’s really just playing herself in a light role. Plus, there are some people who thought her singing wasn’t that great, so I don’t know if that could be held against her.

    • This reply was modified 6 months, 3 weeks ago by  Jeffrey Kare.
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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1201994409

    Not gonna happen.

    La La Land easily wins:
    Picture
    Director
    Actress
    Score
    Song
    Editing

    And in a sweep:
    Cinematography
    Sound Mixing
    Production Design
    Costume Design

    Can’t see Lonergan losing (this is not a Boyhood situation). So Screenplay won’t happen. There’s the automatic loss for its other song. Actor and Sound Editing definitely won’t happen.

    Moonlight is no Godfather to this Cabaret. The Godfather was a film that didn’t have such a showy technical value like Cabaret, so of course that film ended up winning all those awards. This says nothing bad against The Godfather. That film was the clear favorite that year and won what it was supposed to win against such a technically impressive film.

    How it lost Director, well I don’t know, Bob Fosse did create and handled something really amazing here. Maybe they just saw that technical achievement as something more impressive than The Godfather. That’s not gonna happen with Jenkins and call me when Moonlight becomes a huge box office hit adn an automatic instant classic for decades, for a huge and diverse demographic. It’s not beating La La Land.

    I asume then, that some people believe that today, L.A Confidential would beat Titanic…(sure)…

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    Jason Travis
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    #1201994427

    While the slight favorite, Manchester by the Sea is not nearly as loved as Moonlight. Voters already can reward Manchester with Best Actor. Moonlight is not going home empty handed with 8 nods. Screenplay is its strongest chance since supporting actor is now a bit wide open. Remember the SAG Ensemble award is probably going to Jenkins’ film and that will surge it in the headlines.

    We’ll see what WGA says but still I don’t think Manchester is getting anything but lead actor. Moonlight is meanwhile competitive to win the top honor.

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    BenitoDelicias
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    #1201994443

    Again, WGA means nothing, it has all three films in the same category. The only thing WGA can say is “La La Land – Best Original Screenplay” and it will shit on Manchester’s chances. But even with that, Moonlight will not go empty handed because it has one of the easiest categories of the night in Adapted Screenplay where it’s basically alone. Manchester can still win Original Screenplay considering its only competition is La La Land for reasons other than the screenplay itself…even if it wins WGA, which it won’t.

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    Jason Travis
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    #1201994446

    Again, WGA means nothing, it has all three films in the same category. The only thing WGA can say is “La La Land – Best Original Screenplay” and it will shit on Manchester’s chances. But even with that, Moonlight will not go empty handed because it has one of the easiest categories of the night in Adapted Screenplay where it’s basically alone. Manchester can still win Original Screenplay considering its only competition is La La Land for reasons other than the screenplay itself…even if it wins WGA, which it won’t.

    My mistake- I realized Moonlight was in Adapted Screenplay.

    Manchester by the Sea vs La La Land. I think the latter wins, even though I know musicals are rare here. But they seem to LOVE Chapelle’s movie. Who knows at this point.

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    Alex Meyer
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    #1202024984

    Well, to my great surprise, it really did happen!! Holy cow!!

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    Filmatelist
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    #1202025228

    Good call!  Like GODFATHER, MOONLIGHT wins Oscars for the producers, writers, and the male patriarch role.

    Like CABARET, LA LA wins for Actress, Director, Cinematography, Prod. Design, and Score.  So it may not have swept as broadly as the Fosse film, but it did walk away with the most awards of the night.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202025478

    The crucial difference though is that The Godfather went into Oscar night as the frontrunner. It had even won Coppola the DGA.

    Unlike Demian Chazelle, Bob Fosse winning was a shocker. By the time Best Picture came up, Cabaret had only lost one award, Adapted Screenplay. (Strangely it wasn’t nominated for costumes.)

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    Jeffrey Kare
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