December 28, 2012 at 11:42 am #80371
I just Love Les Miserables it deserves every award there is……….. Les Miz Is Simply the Best ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›December 28, 2012 at 11:49 am #80373
I sympathize with your passion but there is already a Les Mis thread.December 28, 2012 at 11:52 am #80374
No film will get more nominations than lincoln this year.December 28, 2012 at 11:59 am #80375
And there are at least 4 other films that have a better chance of winning BP (Lincoln, the very likely winner; Argo; Zero Dark 30; Silver Linings Playbook) than Les Mis. The preferential ballot for BP dooms it. The film is way too polarizing and divisive to win, and the makeup of the Academy (strong majority straight white male, not remotely its fan base) also works against it.
It at the moment is in a race to see if it will have the undisputed lead for 2nd most nominations with ZD30. That’s going to be close. Les Mis is far from certain in four top categories – director, screenplay, cinematography, film editing – while ZD30 is virtually a lock in three and could get all four.
Great to see your passion, but films that a lot of people don’t like – which is definitely Les Mis so far – don’t win a lot of Oscars.December 28, 2012 at 12:02 pm #80376
Well I guess I’ll leave this topic limb open for now.December 28, 2012 at 12:04 pm #80377
At this point, I would not be surprised if it misses the cut for a BP nomination. Director is almost certainly out, and it is not a player in the screenplay race. Tough to justify BP when director/writing don’t happen. Could shape up as noms for Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Song, Sound Mixing/Editing, Make-up, Art Direction, and Costume Design.December 28, 2012 at 12:08 pm #80378
Adam – even if we were back to 5 BP nominees, I think it would squeak in. With needing only 5% #1 votes (from the complicated formula involved), it should be a lock. Director has only five, the directors are a more discerning group and the screenplay is basically the stage show with some revisions that people are criticizing. Film editors (unlike the final voters) tend to go for best editing, not most editing, so it is in jeopardy there. Cinematography I suspect is likely, but not certain. I don’t think Hugh Jackman is a lock either (Hathaway, alas, is, and probably wins).
It clearly benefits from passionate support and coming out big right when the balloting is going on. And the much more disliked Extremely Loud & Dangerous Close made it in with somewhat worse reviews, as did The Reader, back when there were only 5 slots. So I think it is a lock to be a BP nominee.December 28, 2012 at 12:10 pm #80379
All the negativity here will not sway academy members from voting for
Les Miserables..one thing it does have that the membership will appreciate
happens to be a british director..whether he is nominated or not.. the film
will get nominated for best picture..
I remember Oliver’s reviews in 1968..very similar to Les Mis…but
Sir Carol Reed made the difference..he made such a difference that
it snatched the award from The Lion In Winter…
Les Miserables, so far..has a huge box office at the moment and just
when ballots are being sent back….I predict the only film with more
nominations will be LINCOLN….December 28, 2012 at 12:11 pm #80380
At this point, I would not be surprised if it misses the cut for a BP nomination. Director is almost certainly out, and it is not a player in the screenplay race. Tough to justify BP when director/writing don’t happen. Could shape up as noms for Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Song, Sound Mixing/Editing, Make-up, Art Direction, and Costume Design.
Somehow I dont think your wish fullfilment will pan out.December 28, 2012 at 12:13 pm #80381
Do you really think cinematography is likely? Seems like it’s been such a strong year for that and Les Mis‘s was so bad…December 28, 2012 at 12:15 pm #80382
Les Mis will surely get a best pic nom? I have the same passion for Moonrise Kingdom so I’m rooting for that to get a best nomination if anything! But Les Mis has a much better chance. Atm I’m feeling 8/9 films will make the line-up, LM being in the top 5.December 28, 2012 at 12:22 pm #80383
Oliver received massively better reviews than Les Mis (I was already following them back then). Pauline Kael, a very tough critic, loved it. It was on Roger Ebert’s 10 best list. Newsweek’s review called it basically the best film of the year. The NYTimes review, though no rave, was better,There is no way Les Mis remotely comes close to the quite favorable critical response to Oliver. The more mediocre Funny Girl also received better reviews.
And Tom Hooper, who, sorry, to me is the most incompetent director ever to be nominated for best director, let alone win, is so far removed from Carol Reed as to embarrass him to be even mentioned. And Reed, of course, had not already been a best director winner.
That said, yes, Oliver’s win was an upset, one of the biggest ever (among other things, that it was one of the two Columbia Pictures musicals nominated the same year was thought to doom it, even before Anthony Harvey’s DGA win, which went along with the film’s win from the NYFC, at that point very influential).
December 28, 2012 at 12:24 pm #80384
I just Love Les Miserables it deserves every award there is……….. Les Miz Is Simply the Best ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›ðŸ’›
Would you give it all 24 Oscars? 😉December 28, 2012 at 1:28 pm #80385
Close this ridiculous thread down, there’s already a thread for this film.December 28, 2012 at 1:57 pm #80386
If CHICAGO, the most deplorable production of a Kander/Ebb musical ever, can be nominated, and WIN — then LES MISERABLES almost certainly will be nominated for Best Picture and could possibly win. (Although my money’s on LINCOLN.)
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