February 4, 2017 at 4:14 am #1202002706
Does anybody here think Chazelle is NOT going to win tonight?
He comes across to me as the HEAVY, HEAVY favorite. Why?
1. La La Land won the PGA. The PGA and DGA awards have matched 20/27 times.
2. Chazelle won the Globe and Critics Choice.
3. The DGA has been a great predictor of the Oscar winner. Only 15 times has the DGA winner failed to win Best Picture. That’s a 78% success rate.
4. Nominated for both the DGA and BAFTA. The last time the DGA winner went to a non-BAFTA nominee was Million Dollar Baby and that wasn’t eligible for the BAFTAs. Before that was Apollo 13, and that was when the BAFTAs had 4 nominees.
Here’s how I rank them:
1. Damien Chazelle – Hits all the right notes for a DGA winner.
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Won the Satellite for best director and nominated for both the DGA and BAFTA.
3. Denis Villeneuve – Nominated for both the DGA and BAFTA
4. Barry Jenkins – Failed to score a BAFTA nomination. However, DGA voters could want to make history.
5. Garth Davis – The Lloyd Christmas chance.
Anybody here think we will see a surprise winner tonight? I don’t think so, but I am happy to be wrong.February 4, 2017 at 5:53 am #1202002721
I feel that anyone of the first four would make deserved winners. I am not so impressed by Villeneuve and Davis, but I love Lonergan, Jenkins and Chazelle. All three are so different in their directing style, so I guess, it comes down, what the DGA overall prefers.
However I have a feeling that Jenkins is going to win the DGA. I never understood why Chazelle was the favourite to win, because Jenkins won all the big critics groups – LA critics group, NY critics group, National Board of Review and National Society of Film Critics. In the end Chazelle won more overall critics groups, but Jenkins got the Trifecta and NBR. I dont know what the Critics Choice or Globes is actually worth, since these are not industry awards.
But what made me consider Jenkins was an article from indiewire last year, when 31 indie-directors (dont know if these are part of the DGA) were asked to name their top 10 movies and nearly everyone had Moonlight on their list and praised Jenkins for directing it. La La Land and MBTS made it only on a few lists.
I also think that being snubbed by Bafta could help Jenkins getting some votes and since its the year of inclusion, some voters might play the race card.February 4, 2017 at 6:07 am #1202002724
Critics Circle groups are not industry groups either. The Academy is composed of mostly Guild and BAFTA members.
Jenkins winning tonight would be historic AND would make the Best Picture and Director race less predictable.February 4, 2017 at 7:35 am #1202002741
Jenkins winning tonight would be historical AND would make the Best Picture and Director race less predictable.
That notion is the only thing bothering me. Why should anyone win an award because he or she has a certain ethnicity or race or gender. I would love to know if everyone, who is rooting for Jenkins to “upset” Chazelle, would feel, if Chazelle were african-american and Jenkins “white”. Would they still rooting for him? I mean, I would since I am colorblind and am not a fan of identity-politics.February 4, 2017 at 8:07 am #1202002743
Well, in the last 10 years Todd Haynes and Mike Leigh (2008) couldn’t get a nom with NYFCC+NSFC wins, Bigelow (2012) with NBR+NYFCC.
Linklater lost with ny/la/nsfc. Fincher lost with ny/la/nsfc/nbr.February 4, 2017 at 8:21 am #1202002753
Jenkins winning tonight would be historic AND would make the Best Picture and Director race less predictable.
That notion is the only thing bothering me. Why should anyone win an award because he or she has a certain ethnicity or race or gender. I would love to know if everyone, who is rooting for Jenkins to “upset” Chazelle, would feel, if Chazelle were african-american and Jenkins “white”. Would they still rooting for him? I mean, I would since I am colorblind and am not a fan of identity-politics.
Me either, but that seems to be the only thing pointing in Jenkins direction.February 4, 2017 at 9:02 am #1202002764
Yes. He’s a lock.February 4, 2017 at 9:06 am #1202002766
I generally don’t like LLL, but yeah the direction was the best part of that movie and he should be a lock.February 4, 2017 at 9:07 am #1202002767
Jenkins deserves to win, but Chazelle will win.February 4, 2017 at 11:36 am #1202002872
What time EST will these be announced?
I predict Damien Chazelle. How I would love it if Garth Davis was the surprise winner! I do hope he wins the First Film award! I would be happy with Chazelle, Davis or Lonergan winning.