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No chance for upsets in the acting categories? Seriously?

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  • cinephil
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    #178760

    This is such a weird year for the acting categories. Usually there is at least one category that seems really open but this year, I mean, it looks like Redmayne, Moore, Simmons and Arquette are done deals. Ain’t that a bit boring?

    Well, maybe Keaton can upset Redmayne but that is about the only chance we have. Usually upsets tend to happen in the supporting categories. I’d love to have a supporting upset. Did any of the contenders in these categories do any campaigning that might result in a surprise win (Norton or Dern maybe?)?

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    Anonymous
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    #178762

    I don’t think so.

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    Anonymous
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    #178763

    Maybe I’m in the minority here but I still think Keaton is the favorite, albeit slightly. And if Redmayne wins it’d be kind of an upset to be me. But other than that? No, I don’t see any other upsets happening.

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    cinephil
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    #178764

    I can hear you…. I keep switching between Keaton and Redmayne.

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    cinephil
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    #178765

    I am really happy for Julianne Moore being a lock – she sooo deserves it! I just love a supporting race but given Arquette’s great turn it is also understandable why things are this way.

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    Berlin2002
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    #178766

    Lead actress, supporting actor/actress are done deals. The statuettes are already inscribed with their names.
    The math is in favor of a possible upset in Lead Actor. At the start of Oscar season, Keaton was the man to beat.
    Now Redmane is the man du jour. Old Hollywood will probably throw their allegiance towards Keaton while
    young Hollywood might be in favor of checkmarking for Redmane. This could open up the path for Cooper
    to make it to the mainstage on Oscar night. A similar equation arose in 1973 Legend has it that Streisand and
    Burstyn split the vote, thusly allowing one of the worst wins in history ( Glenda Jackson ) to claim victory.

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #178767

    The only possible upset I can actually see happening is Cooper in Lead Actor. It will depend how close the race is because he will certainly have a body of support.

    Come participate in this year's Goldderby Rankings! http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/2017-goldderby-rankings/

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    Gone_Guy
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    #178768

    Three of the four are over and done with. Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette are the three biggest locks of the entire ceremony. And at this point, can you imagine them not winning? Their inevitable congratulatory applause-reaction would truly be something to see, not to mention the heart attack that the actual winner would be having.

    Lead Actor is such a toss-up. I think. I feel like if Eddie Redmayne wins, I’ll question why I ever thought he may lose. Sort of like, “C’mon, he had the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA… All Keaton had was the Critics Choice.” Yet right behind Redmayne are Keaton and Cooper just waiting. I honestly count out Cooper because he had no single precursors (except a win in that genre category at CCA, for which he was unfortunately unavailable to accept). When Adrien Brody trumped Jack Nicholson and Daniel-Day Lewis, he did it with nominations at the major precursors. When Denzel Washington trumped Russell Crowe, he not only had noms at the major precursors, but a win at LAFCA. Bradley Cooper has none of that. Plus his film comes with a ton of controversy (that made poor Zero Dark Thirty be nearly shut out of wins). So that brings me back to Keaton. There will be voters who don’t like Redmayne and/or don’t want to vote for him; they’re likely alternative will be Michael Keaton. The question I keep asking is will it be enough votes to secure the win for Keaton? I’m going with Redmayne. 

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    Anthony
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    #178769

    Not to mention with Adrien Brody, he also won a major critics award if I recall: Nat’l Society.

    I am so torn with who to go with because they are just at opposite ends of the spectrum…which that also brings me back to that 2002 race because Nicholson and Day-Lewis had multiple ties, and then Nicholson won the Globe and Day-Lewis won the SAG….at the time, I predicted Day-Lewis (which in retrospect I am glad didn’t happen because I didn’t like the performance and it probably would’ve cost him one or both wins for the better performances he eventually gave).

    But yes, Bradley Cooper basically has nothing and if he wins, it would be HUGE….I suppose not entriely out of left field because people were discussing it but it would be on the level of someone like Marisa Tomei winning without having ANY major precursor attention.

    For whatever reason, at this moment, my mind is saying Keaton will prevail. 

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    Berlin2002
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    #178770

    GONE GIRL your argument makes sense. Redmane certainly has momemtum on his side, while Keaton
    has a great backstory on his. If there is an upset, it will be with Cooper winning. At this point, if I had to
    hazzard a guess, I’d say bet on Keaton for the win. Don’t forget, at the start of Oscar season, everyone
    was betting on Carrell to get the nomination. He was usually seond on everyone’s lists. Then Gyllenhall
    came out of nowhere recieving all the acclaim and momentum that has once banked for Carrell. In fact,
    according to the experts and fan polls, Gyllenhall would make the top five cut, leaving Carrell off the
    nominees list. Carrell was the footnote. Oscar voters proved what was hot yesterday is still hot today
    by nominating the almost forgotten son Carrell and leaving potentional hot nominee Gyllenhall off
    the ballot. With that type of history in place, I’m going to say that the voters will stick with their
    original choice of Keaton. Keaton for the win.

    Personally speaking – those 5 performancees were so stellar, I’m happy with whoever wins.

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    vinny
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    #178771

    I’m not compeltely 100% confident that it will happen but I really have a gut feeling that best supporting actor might be a surprise winner (Duvall) and maybe best actor (but is Eddie considered a surprise if he wins?)

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    Gone_Guy
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    #178772

    GONE GIRL your argument makes sense.

    Thanks, Doll, but I’m Gone_Guy. There’s only one Gone Girl, hahaha. 

    Redmane certainly has momemtum on his side, while Keaton 
    has a great backstory on his. If there is an upset, it will be with Cooper winning. At this point, if I had to
    hazzard a guess, I’d say bet on Keaton for the win. Don’t forget, at the start of Oscar season, everyone
    was betting on Carrell to get the nomination. He was usually seond on everyone’s lists. Then Gyllenhall
    came out of nowhere recieving all the acclaim and momentum that has once banked for Carrell. In fact, 
    according to the experts and fan polls, Gyllenhall would make the top five cut, leaving Carrell off the
    nominees list. Carrell was the footnote. Oscar voters proved what was hot yesterday is still hot today
    by nominating the almost forgotten son Carrell and leaving potentional hot nominee Gyllenhall off
    the ballot. With that type of history in place, I’m going to say that the voters will stick with their
    original choice of Keaton. Keaton for the win.

    Personally speaking – those 5 performancees were so stellar, I’m happy with whoever wins.

    I agree. The category contains five great performances, and waiting in the wings were five additional great performances (Gyllenhaal, Oyelowo, Fiennes, Teller, Spall). If I could make one alteration, it would have been Steve Carell being in Supporting all along. I feel he can go either way, but there are more arguments for him to be in Supporting than Lead (thank you, BAFTA, for understanding). Who knows if he would have been able to take some of Simmons’ hardware? 

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    Berlin2002
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    #178773

    I’m not compeltely 100% confident that it will happen but I really have a gut feeling that best supporting actor might be a surprise winner (Duvall) and maybe best actor (but is Eddie considered a surprise if he wins?)

    If Duvall wasn’t already an Oscar winner I would totally be on board with your gut feeling. After all the supporting
    categories loves to honor newbies and veterans. That said, it makes Simmons the ideal candidate for the win.
    He’s been around for 20 years. Always the reliable, unsung supporting or bit player whose name you could
    never remember. He’s been invited to the ball. There is no way he’ll lose.

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    vinny
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    #178774

    [quote=”vinman422″]I’m not compeltely 100% confident that it will happen but I really have a gut feeling that best supporting actor might be a surprise winner (Duvall) and maybe best actor (but is Eddie considered a surprise if he wins?)

    If Duvall wasn’t already an Oscar winner I would totally be on board with your gut feeling. After all the supporting
    categories loves to honor newbies and veterans. That said, it makes Simmons the ideal candidate for the win.
    He’s been around for 20 years. Always the reliable, unsung supporting or bit player whose name you could
    never remember. He’s been invited to the ball. There is no way he’ll lose.[/quote]

    I hope Simmons wins.   

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    Milo Kunis
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    #178775

    Moore, Simmons, and Arquette have been in front for months, with not a single nominee emerging as a possible threat. Not one. Everyone knows they are winning. They know they are winning. That’s a wrap. Hell, Arquette even memorized a speech at BAFTA in lieu of the paper she loves to use. 

    The only categories I’m still up in the air about are Picture, Director and Actor. This actually gives me a reason to care about the last twenty minutes or so of the telecast. 

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