Number of Best Picture nominees

Home // Forums // Movies // Number of Best Picture nominees

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 17 total)
Created
4 years ago
Last Reply
4 years ago
16
replies
473
views
13
users
3
2
1
  • ETPhoneHome
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119317

    With the current system, there can be anywhere between 5-10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, there were 9 nominees. I think we will see 8 this year, based on the current state of the race. What does everyone else think?

    Reply
    benbraddock
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119319

    I am still sticking to 8….

    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    August Osage County
    Captain Phillips
    Blue Jasmine
    Saving mr. Banks
    Gravity
    Nebraska

    ReplyCopy URL
    ETPhoneHome
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119320

    I am still sticking to 8….

    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    August Osage County
    Captain Phillips
    Blue Jasmine
    Saving mr. Banks
    Gravity
    Nebraska

    I’m calling Wolf of Wall Street instead of Blue Jasmine, but otherwise agree.

    ReplyCopy URL
    24Emmy
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119321

    10

    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    August: Osage County
    Blue Jasmine
    Captain Phillips
    Gravity
    Inside Llweyn Davis
    Nebraska
    Saving Mr. Banks
    The Wolf of Wall Street 

    ReplyCopy URL
    babypook
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119322

    I’d like to see the full slate of ten. At least then, I have a fighting chance of my own personal favorites making up about 30%,

    ReplyCopy URL
    Beau S.
    Member
    Joined:
    Feb 10th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119323

    I think we may be looking at a full slate this year considering the amount of acclaimed films we’ve seen. It’s been a very strong year for film so far.

    ReplyCopy URL
    ETPhoneHome
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119324

    I’d like to see the full slate of ten. At least then, I have a fighting chance of my own personal favorites making up about 30%,

    I would also like to see 10, but I don’t know how many films will get the number of first-place votes needed to be a nominee. Gravity and 12 Years might take up a lot of those spots.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Tyler The Awesome Guy
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 19th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119325

    Seeing has how they picked nine the past two years in a row, I thought the rule to pick in between 5-10 a year seemed redundant. But I think they’ll repeat that trend.

    • American Hustle
    • August: Osage County
    • The Butler
    • Captain Phillips
    • Gravity
    • Inside Llewyn Davis
    • Saving Mr. Banks
    • Twelve Years a Slave
    • The Wolf of Wall Street 
    ReplyCopy URL
    DominicCobb
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 12th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119326

    Not completely sure on the math, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this year more than 10 films got 5% (though obviously there’d still be only 10 nominees).

    ReplyCopy URL
    Renaton
    Member
    Joined:
    Jun 4th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119327

    Wouldn’t it be funny if because the year is so competitive, that most films fail to get 5% of the vote, as votes all go very different ways, and we end up with a line-up of five? Very unlikely, I know.

    I think we’ll have nine, but the last four slots are tricky at this point. If my hypothetical year of five were to happen, my guess would be 12 Years, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis and Saving Mr. Banks. 

    ReplyCopy URL
    Riley
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 11th, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119328

    During the period studied, the average percentage of first-place votes
    received by the top vote-getting movie was 20.5. After much analysis by
    Academy officials, it was determined that five percent of first place
    votes should be the minimum in order to receive a nomination, resulting
    in a slate of anywhere from five to 10 movies. “In studying the data, what stood out was that Academy members had
    regularly shown a strong admiration for more than five movies,” said
    Davis. “A best picture nomination should be an indication of
    extraordinary merit. If there are only eight pictures that truly earn
    that honor in a given year, we shouldn’t feel an obligation to round out
    the number.”If this system had been in effect from 2001 to 2008 (before the
    expansion to a slate of 10), there would have been years that yielded
    five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees.

    That last part tells me that the system is not built to produce ten nominees in actuality, as it never occured in the eight years that they analyzed.  Also important from that quote was that they experienced five different numbers of nominees in those eight years, so having nine the last two is something of an anomaly.  With both of those points in mind, I would be surprised if we got nine or ten nominees, but acknowledge that this seems like a wide year and voters have been voting for many films in the last couple, so my prediction is eight nominees.

    ReplyCopy URL
    AviChristiaans
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jul 26th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119329

    The fewer the better, makes it more competitive in that regard.

    Would love 8,  maximum.

    But i gather we’ll see a full 10 nominations, since many films are getting diverse support.
    Also with the rules change this year i presume more voters will turn out, and more passion will be shown by the different guilds for their favorites (Writers, Directors, Producers, Acting and Technical).

    ReplyCopy URL
    Renaton
    Member
    Joined:
    Jun 4th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119330

    Wouldn’t having two years of nine (considering the last one) and a year of eight actually mean the number will probably sway around that 8 or 9? 3 years that we know of – they don’t say how many years were nine and how many were eight, but it feels like those two would be the most recurring. Might indicate around 8 or 9 is the pattern, with weaker years with results around 6 or 7, and a very weak one resulting in 5. Pure speculation, of course.

    I’m curious which would have been the year of five. Probably the year Crash won, because it’s one year from that period without a lone director spot, and I’m pretty sure lone director spots of the past, like Mulholland Drive, Talk To Her, City of God and Vera Drake would’ve made BP in a 5% votes year if it were the case in their time (think Tree Of Life). The one other year where there was no lone director spot was the year Slumdog won, but we all know it was The Dark Knight got snubbed and it was likely very close BP nom and that it drove the changes we had in the past few years, so that would’ve been at least a 6 nominees line-up (maybe more considering Wall-E and Doubt likely had 5% #1 passion votes as well).

    ReplyCopy URL
    CanadianFan
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jul 23rd, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119331

    It would be interesting to see < 9 films this year.

    If I were to guess 8 (by likelihood of getting nominated):

    1) 12 Years a Slave
    2) American Hustle
    3) Gravity
    4) August: Osage County
    5) The Wolf of Wall Street **big ???**
    6) Captain Phillips
    7) Saving Mr. Banks
    8) Inside Llewyn Davis

    Nebraska and All Is Lost round out my ten. 

     

    ReplyCopy URL
    Renaton
    Member
    Joined:
    Jun 4th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #119332

    Interesting to think of the possibilities of the past. I assume the 2001 line-up with a 5% vote line-up would’ve looked like this: the five BP nominees + Black Hawk Down (lone director spot, tech noms), Shrek (first animated feature winner, cultural phenomenom), Mulholland Drive (lone director spot, loyal Lynch support, arthouse vote) and Amelie (european voters, tech noms).

    ReplyCopy URL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 17 total)
Reply To: Number of Best Picture nominees

You can use BBCodes to format your content.
Your account can't use Advanced BBCodes, they will be stripped before saving.

Similar Topics
RobertPius - Sep 20, 2017
Movies
ENGLAND - Sep 19, 2017
Movies