November 25, 2013 at 3:57 pm #119317
With the current system, there can be anywhere between 5-10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, there were 9 nominees. I think we will see 8 this year, based on the current state of the race. What does everyone else think?November 25, 2013 at 4:37 pm #119319
I am still sticking to 8….
12 Years a Slave
August Osage County
Saving mr. Banks
NebraskaNovember 25, 2013 at 4:47 pm #119321
12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Inside Llweyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall StreetNovember 25, 2013 at 4:56 pm #119322
I’d like to see the full slate of ten. At least then, I have a fighting chance of my own personal favorites making up about 30%,November 25, 2013 at 5:08 pm #119323
I think we may be looking at a full slate this year considering the amount of acclaimed films we’ve seen. It’s been a very strong year for film so far.November 25, 2013 at 5:16 pm #119324
I’d like to see the full slate of ten. At least then, I have a fighting chance of my own personal favorites making up about 30%,
I would also like to see 10, but I don’t know how many films will get the number of first-place votes needed to be a nominee. Gravity and 12 Years might take up a lot of those spots.November 25, 2013 at 6:16 pm #119325
Seeing has how they picked nine the past two years in a row, I thought the rule to pick in between 5-10 a year seemed redundant. But I think they’ll repeat that trend.
November 25, 2013 at 6:22 pm #119326
- American Hustle
- August: Osage County
- The Butler
- Captain Phillips
- Inside Llewyn Davis
- Saving Mr. Banks
- Twelve Years a Slave
- The Wolf of Wall Street
Not completely sure on the math, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this year more than 10 films got 5% (though obviously there’d still be only 10 nominees).November 25, 2013 at 8:59 pm #119327
Wouldn’t it be funny if because the year is so competitive, that most films fail to get 5% of the vote, as votes all go very different ways, and we end up with a line-up of five? Very unlikely, I know.
I think we’ll have nine, but the last four slots are tricky at this point. If my hypothetical year of five were to happen, my guess would be 12 Years, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Inside Llewyn Davis and Saving Mr. Banks.November 25, 2013 at 9:32 pm #119328
During the period studied, the average percentage of first-place votes
received by the top vote-getting movie was 20.5. After much analysis by
Academy officials, it was determined that five percent of first place
votes should be the minimum in order to receive a nomination, resulting
in a slate of anywhere from five to 10 movies. “In studying the data, what stood out was that Academy members had
regularly shown a strong admiration for more than five movies,” said
Davis. “A best picture nomination should be an indication of
extraordinary merit. If there are only eight pictures that truly earn
that honor in a given year, we shouldn’t feel an obligation to round out
the number.”If this system had been in effect from 2001 to 2008 (before the
expansion to a slate of 10), there would have been years that yielded
five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees.
That last part tells me that the system is not built to produce ten nominees in actuality, as it never occured in the eight years that they analyzed. Also important from that quote was that they experienced five different numbers of nominees in those eight years, so having nine the last two is something of an anomaly. With both of those points in mind, I would be surprised if we got nine or ten nominees, but acknowledge that this seems like a wide year and voters have been voting for many films in the last couple, so my prediction is eight nominees.November 25, 2013 at 9:49 pm #119329
The fewer the better, makes it more competitive in that regard.
Would love 8, maximum.
But i gather we’ll see a full 10 nominations, since many films are getting diverse support.
Also with the rules change this year i presume more voters will turn out, and more passion will be shown by the different guilds for their favorites (Writers, Directors, Producers, Acting and Technical).November 25, 2013 at 9:58 pm #119330
Wouldn’t having two years of nine (considering the last one) and a year of eight actually mean the number will probably sway around that 8 or 9? 3 years that we know of – they don’t say how many years were nine and how many were eight, but it feels like those two would be the most recurring. Might indicate around 8 or 9 is the pattern, with weaker years with results around 6 or 7, and a very weak one resulting in 5. Pure speculation, of course.
I’m curious which would have been the year of five. Probably the year Crash won, because it’s one year from that period without a lone director spot, and I’m pretty sure lone director spots of the past, like Mulholland Drive, Talk To Her, City of God and Vera Drake would’ve made BP in a 5% votes year if it were the case in their time (think Tree Of Life). The one other year where there was no lone director spot was the year Slumdog won, but we all know it was The Dark Knight got snubbed and it was likely very close BP nom and that it drove the changes we had in the past few years, so that would’ve been at least a 6 nominees line-up (maybe more considering Wall-E and Doubt likely had 5% #1 passion votes as well).November 25, 2013 at 10:05 pm #119331
It would be interesting to see < 9 films this year.
If I were to guess 8 (by likelihood of getting nominated):
1) 12 Years a Slave
2) American Hustle
4) August: Osage County
5) The Wolf of Wall Street **big ???**
6) Captain Phillips
7) Saving Mr. Banks
8) Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska and All Is Lost round out my ten.November 25, 2013 at 10:11 pm #119332
Interesting to think of the possibilities of the past. I assume the 2001 line-up with a 5% vote line-up would’ve looked like this: the five BP nominees + Black Hawk Down (lone director spot, tech noms), Shrek (first animated feature winner, cultural phenomenom), Mulholland Drive (lone director spot, loyal Lynch support, arthouse vote) and Amelie (european voters, tech noms).