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Official SILENCE Thread (limited release date 12/23)

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  • BamaEd
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    #1201927714

    I didn’t see a thread for it (if there is one, let me know and I will delete), but it looks like Silence is now officially a contender for this awards season. It will have an end of the year qualifying run.

    Silence release date 12/23

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    Alex Meyer
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    #1201927740

    Yes, finally!! I have been waiting for this for so long!

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    Volcarocka
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    #1201927742

    This movie is reminding me of The Revenant last year. I see it getting some technical and acting awards, but I’m not sure it’ll be a huge threat to La La Land. At least I feel somewhat confident in updating my predictions now.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201927782

    ^ Well The Revenant was a huge threat to Spotlight so your logic doesn’t quite follow. In fact The Revenant might even have won on a non-preferential ballot.

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    Volcarocka
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    #1201927786

    In my opinion, Revenant was never a threat to Spotlight in anything but Director (and deservedly so). My regret is that I only see this in retrospect, as I bought in to the Revenant hype at the time.

    Silence could surprise me and be good enough to win. But La La Land currently has both the momentum and the reviews, much like Spotlight. Of the unseen movies this year, Silence has the best chance of the upset, but I’m sticking with the safe bet for now.

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    Teridax
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    #1201927842

    In my opinion, Revenant was never a threat to Spotlight in anything but Director (and deservedly so). My regret is that I only see this in retrospect, as I bought in to the Revenant hype at the time.

    Silence could surprise me and be good enough to win. But La La Land currently has both the momentum and the reviews, much like Spotlight. Of the unseen movies this year, Silence has the best chance of the upset, but I’m sticking with the safe bet for now.

    PLEASE. The film that can win Bafta Picture/Director, the Golden Globe for Picture/Director, and most importantly of all won the DGA is the obvious frontrunner, it was the masculine period epic the Oscars love, like with Gladiator or Braveheart.

    Plus, don’t forget it had twice as many nominations as Spotlight, 12 to its 6. And Spotlight stood no chance of winning any other Award besides screenplay, and no movie since The Greatest Show On Earth had won Best Picture and just one other Award!

    If there was going to be a movie to win Best Picture and just 1 other Award this Oscar season, I thought The Big Short had WAY more potential than Spotlight! It won the PGA, and won the (Comedy) ACE Eddie Award, for which Spotlight was snubbed entirely! No movie had won the Best Picture Oscar without the ACE Eddie nomination since Driving Miss Daisy, you know. If there was going to be a movie to win Best Picture and just 1 other Award this Oscar season, I thought The Big Short had WAY more potential than Spotlight!

    Yes, Spotlight won a bunch of critics Awards, yet that didn’t help Boyhood, even though I thought it would, and incorrectly predicted it to win at the Oscars over Birdman. And YES, I know Spotlight upset Straight Outta Compton and BP rival The Big Short to triumph at SAG, but look at American Hustle, or The Help, or Inglorious Bastards, etc! SAG Ensemble sucks at predicting Best Picture at the Oscars in close races. The one freaking time it was really relevant, I’d already lost hope in them as a reliable predictor. “sigh” 🙁

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    Teridax
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    #1201927844

    ^ Well The Revenant was a huge threat to Spotlight so your logic doesn’t quite follow. In fact The Revenant might even have won on a non-preferential ballot.

    On a non-preferential ballot, I’m actually tempted to say The Big Short might have won. I think the ranking system really hurt that movie, whereas the bland and safe Spotlight was at least near the top of most everybody’s ballots.

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    Volcarocka
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    #1201927850

    Stating all of that doesn’t change the fact that the brilliantly-written and very well-acted Spotlight won the Oscar, meaning it got higher votes on more ballots than The Revenant regardless of the other awards. Last year I reluctantly moved The Revenant up because of the numbers, but I should have stuck with my gut feeling of “Spotlight is the better movie and the voters recognize this.” The different awards all have different voters and different counting methods, and being able to read that difference is how you can tell when a movie sweeping other awards isn’t necessarily an Oscar frontrunner.

    People often need to read up on the difference between correlation and causation. Just because no movie since The Greatest Show on Earth had won BP and only one other award doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen again, as we saw this year.

    I will agree with you about The Big Short. In my opinion, it was a bigger threat to Spotlight than The Revenant ever was. On a non-preferential ballot, Spotlight probably still would have won, with The Big Short at second and The Revenant at third. Revenant’s problem is that too many people just didn’t like it at all, so while those that loved it had it at the top, those that didn’t likely didn’t rank it high at all.

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    AnDres Gtz
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    #1201927916

    I don’t know about Best Picture, but Scorsese should be frontrunner for Best Director.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201927993

    I have a feeling Silence might be Scorsese’s Munich.

    Also, I suspect Best Picture and Director will correlate this year.

    COMING SOON to The Awards Connection…Horror at the Oscars!

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    reservoirdogma
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    #1201928003

    If they do decide to campaign this for acting, how do you think it will go? Actually winning against the Affleck/Ali juggernauts would be a long shot, but I imagine Liam Neeson could take Michael Keaton’s Founder slot if that one fails to connect (a sort of “you had a nice vacation with Taken but now you’re getting serious again” narrative), and either Andrew Garfield or Adam Driver could take Jeff Bridges’ if the Hell or Highwater team doesn’t jump on it. I think Driver might have a better shot than Garfield, in that case–it would be a “welcome to the A-list” type thing.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201928063

    I have a feeling Silence might be Scorsese’s Munich.

    In what sense? No wins? No acting nominations? I very much doubt the latter at this stage, and being set in the 17th Century Silence will be up for a lot more technical categories than Munich ever was. (Dante Ferretti is the production designer and costume designer, for instance.)

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201928067

    If they do decide to campaign this for acting, how do you think it will go? Actually winning against the Affleck/Ali juggernauts would be a long shot, but I imagine Liam Neeson could take Michael Keaton’s Founder slot if that one fails to connect (a sort of “you had a nice vacation with Taken but now you’re getting serious again” narrative), and either Andrew Garfield or Adam Driver could take Jeff Bridges’ if the Hell or Highwater team doesn’t jump on it. I think Driver might have a better shot than Garfield, in that case–it would be a “welcome to the A-list” type thing.

    You’re mixed up with the categories – Garfield is lead, Driver and Neeson are supporting.

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    jacob121
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    #1201928275

    I LOVE Scorsese and I am particularly intrigued by something he considers one of his passion projects but I am really struggling to get excited for this. It just seems so…bleak? I don’t want The Revenant 2.0: Japanese Edition. It’ll be nice to see Garfield finally break through if it hits, though. Are there no women at all in this movie? They may want to push someone into supporting actress is the movie takes off since there is so much opportunity there this year.

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    Emil Petrov
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    #1201935562

    How is it possible for this not to have a trailer yet?

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