February 28, 2017 at 2:47 pm #1202026294
I saw the predictions of the guy who had the best (20/24) and he made some really impressive calls. He was also way off in some places, like Fire at Sea, but it makes sense that a guy who won the contest this year and even got Best Picture would be the kind of guy who did stuff like that. What was shocking was Paul and Daniel’s interview with him where he explained himself.
After finding out how he called Moonlight, Paul and Daniel asked about Fire at Sea. I figured that he predicted it because he thought that the three black injustice nominees would split. Not the case at all. He did not predict O.J. because he did not see voters going for it because it was a television show, but he chose Fire at Sea… at random. He had no idea what it was about.
He correctly predicted that Arrival would take sound editing and Hacksaw Ridge would take sound mixing. How did he know? Well, at this point, he confessed that although he knows what the films nominated generally are through trailers, the only films that he has seen that are nominated in any categories are Rogue One and Moana and he has seen parts of The Jungle Book and Zootopia. So he went with Arrival in sound editing and Hacksaw Ridge in mixing.
He predicted Hacksaw Ridge in film editing and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them for both production design and costume design. Were these decisions influenced by BAFTA? Nope, he has no idea what won BAFTA or what was nominated in any category. He said that if he had seen the clips for production design before the ceremony instead of during it, he would have gone for La La Land there.
He discovered Gold Derby the day of the Oscars this year when he searched for an Oscar predictions site online after years of predicting at home by himself on paper. He says that this is by far the best that he has ever done. I was expecting someone who was predicting upsets because he disagreed with the consensus and was feeling gutsy, but he merely just went category-by-category and made his picks on the spot without research.
We all got this one, but how did he predict “City of Stars”? He asked his wife and daughter who had actually seen La La Land whether it or “Audition” was better.February 28, 2017 at 3:48 pm #1202026348
I like what Daniel said in the webchat: “next year I’m not watching any of the nominated films”!
Overthinking can be a killer.February 28, 2017 at 7:34 pm #1202026537
I discovered Gold Derby searching for Oscar predictions too! But years ago. I am tempted to not watch the films (or at least not as many) because sometimes my heart gets in the way of my brain. Picking Jackie for costumes because I just wanted it to win something over a 3 time Oscar champ. Colleen Atwood is like the Meryl Streep of Design. She may not win every year but if she’s up for an award don’t count her out. I know people hate Jackie but I loved it.
The only problem for me with the “don’t watch the nominees” strategy is that I’m not a TV watcher. I’m more of a movie buff. And I’m HORRIBLE with TV award predicting.
So I plan to keep on doing what I’m doing and hope to win one of these someday.February 28, 2017 at 10:39 pm #1202026654
I spend months researching and coming up with methods to predict the best possible out comes- and this guy goes with his gut THE DAY OF THE OSCARS and gets 20/24! That makes me feel like shit!March 1, 2017 at 12:33 am #1202026712
I like stories like this guy’s but it’s not like anything this year couldn’t have been seen coming with thought and research, except for that Costume Design win by Fantastic Beasts, which joins Ex Machina winning Visual Effects as things we just have to accept are impossible to explain.