( +11 hidden )
September 2, 2016 at 8:53 pm #1201917245
Best actor?September 4, 2016 at 1:37 pm #1201917592
My current guesses:
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
I am so close to putting Hanks in but his lack of acknowledgement for CP and BoS has stopped me.
If American Pastoral is well received (unfortunately I am sceptical) Ewan McGregor will be on my list.
Not buying Edgerton or Parker at the mo.September 4, 2016 at 2:15 pm #1201917600
Spoiler: Viggo MortensenSeptember 4, 2016 at 2:21 pm #1201917601
PittSeptember 4, 2016 at 2:50 pm #1201917605
Right now, I have:
Gosling and Hanks could be replaced if someone better comes along, like Lion’s Dev Patel or Andrew Garfield, who could hit hard in Hacksaw Ridge or Silence. Michael Keaton may also surprise, especially if Washington disappoints. Gosling isn’t getting absolute raves for his performance, but he may be rewarded simply for being in La La Land. And Ben Affleck is waiting in the wings with two “could be good/could be bad” movies this awards season.September 4, 2016 at 3:29 pm #1201917611
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving
4. Tom Hanks, Sully
5. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
6. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
7. Michael Keaton, The Founder
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
9. Miles Teller, Bleed for This
10. David Oyelowo, A United KingdomSeptember 4, 2016 at 6:57 pm #1201917631
Probably Affleck vs Washington. Garfield dark horse if Silence comes out this yearSeptember 4, 2016 at 9:07 pm #1201917642
My hunch right now is Washington scores Oscar #3.
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Best Original Song (2005) – Give Dolly an Oscar Already!!September 5, 2016 at 2:21 pm #1201917804
Casey AffleckSeptember 5, 2016 at 2:45 pm #1201917807
GusCruz: Natalie Portman came out of Cannes with zero buzz. She won Oscar,Bafta, Sag, Golden Globe, Critics choice, etc. Cannes isn’t relevant for Oscar votersSeptember 5, 2016 at 2:57 pm #1201917810
It helped that Portman was a previous nominee and Globe winner, THE center of her film, and directed by someone with experience nominating Oscar nominated lead perfs. I also suspect Black Swan’s $$$ and reviews will be markedly above Loving’s.September 5, 2016 at 3:16 pm #1201917815
It’s hard to imagine Hanks getting in for Sully after the Captain Phillips snub. The release date and competition look like hard obstacles for him.
Gosling, Affleck, Washington definitely are players
Edgerton, Parker, and Gyllenhaal are the next tier
Keaton maybe if The Founder makes any noise in the packed race
I’m hearing some positive things for Joseph Gordon Levitt for Snowdon but he has the same problem as Hanks with the release date.September 5, 2016 at 3:21 pm #1201917819
It helped that Portman was a previous nominee and Globe winner, THE center of her film, and directed by someone with experience nominating Oscar nominated lead perfs. I also suspect Black Swan’s $$$ and reviews will be markedly above Loving’s.
I agree. Then Cannes isn´t relevant for Oscar voters