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February 2, 2016 at 3:46 pm #214412
What categories do you guys think are completely locked, and what are some potential upsets you see happening at the Oscars. For me, I could see Rooney Mara and Tom Hardy stealing the supporting categories.February 2, 2016 at 3:48 pm #214414
I believe actor and actress are locked, but being a lifelong fan of Leo’s I’m a little hesitant.February 2, 2016 at 3:53 pm #214415
I have a hard time seeing anything but SPOTLIGHT and THE BIG SHORT winning their respective screenplay categories. Those both seem pretty solid and can’t think of any film posing a real threat.February 2, 2016 at 4:03 pm #214416
At this point Actor and Actress in all 4 categories. I thought that SAG might provide us with some excitement, but the fact that neither Rylance nor Mara took the prize means that Stallone and Vikander might be the ones taking the prizes, making all 4 acting categories absolutely predictable.February 2, 2016 at 4:03 pm #214417
Actor, Actress, Sup actor, Sup actress, Foreign, Animated film, Orignal screenplay, Cinematography. Those 8 I think are all guaranteed for DiCaprio, Larson, Stallone, Vikander, Son Of Saul, Inside Out, Spotlight and The RevenantFebruary 2, 2016 at 4:29 pm #214418
Is it safe to assume that Writing’s on the Wall is a lock for original song?February 2, 2016 at 4:41 pm #214419
No. I think Lady Gaga wins song.
Big Short screenplay
Cinderella in costumes
Son of Saul
So thats 12. I think Cinderella is a lock because its Powell and costumes are very showie. reminds me wins by Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby. I dont see anybody beating Morricone too. rest are obvious i think.
Close to lock:
Mad Max for effects
Mad Max for sounds categories
Mad Max for production design
Mad Max for makeup
That leaves BP, BD, editing, song and shorts up in the air. I really dont know what to do with shorts. World Tomorrows or Sanjay? Ave Maria or shok? help.February 2, 2016 at 4:55 pm #214420
Son of Saul
Spotilight (Original Screenplay)
The Big Short (Adapted)
Diane Warren/Lady Gaga
And Mad Max for a bunch of categories.February 2, 2016 at 8:02 pm #214421
Actor, actress, supporting actress, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, makeup, production design, visual effects, foreign film, animated, documentary, both sounds, score, cinematography, and song.
Damn looks like 95% may win again this year.February 2, 2016 at 8:12 pm #214422
Animated Feature and Best Actor are the only true locks in my opinion. And this is coming from someone who has never bet on DiCaprio to win an Oscar in the past.
Brie Larson is close to a lock, but I can see Ronan potentially pulling off an upset.
Stallone’s lack of SAG and BAFTA nominations leads be to believe that he isn’t quite the lock we’re making him out to be. All he’s got is a Golden Globe win, which isn’t exactly the most accurate precursor. Can you name the last actor to win an Oscar after being left off the SAG and BAFTA ballots? It’s happened only once (Marcia Gay Harden).
I think Mark Rylance is the most likely winner. Only he and Christian Bale have been nominated at all of the major precursors, and Bale’s win for The Fighter may have been too recent for them to feel the need to award him again this soon (although, I suppose that hasn’t stopped them in the past – Christoph Waltz, Daniel Day-Lewis, Sean Penn, Tom Hanks, Hilary Swank, Ang Lee, among many others).
If Rylance wins the BAFTA, I think he’ll have the Oscar win in the bag. If Idris Elba wins BAFTA, I’m still betting on Rylance, but it would be far from a sure thing for any of the nominees.
I think Alicia Vikander is the likely winner for Supp. Actress, but I don’t think a Rooney Mara win is out of the question.February 2, 2016 at 10:03 pm #214424
I don’t think Original Screenplay is a lock. Inside Out can pull a suprise win there.February 2, 2016 at 10:03 pm #214423
Alicia Vikander is anything, but a lock. A SAG win is sweet, but Winslet has won too many times there. BAFTA can tell us right. If Vikander wins for “Ex Machina”, she wins the Oscar. If Winslet wins the BAFTA (or Mara), we have a race.February 2, 2016 at 11:36 pm #214425
I don’t think Rylance is a big enough name to pull off that type of upset. Plus bridge of spies isn’t that big of movie. Bale and Tom Hardy are big time stars and ruffalo is in a likely best picture winner so if anyone beats Stallone I bet it’s one of those 3.February 2, 2016 at 11:39 pm #214426
When I think lock, I think, like, Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. I think the only locks this year are Actor and Animated Feature. I think Original Screenplay is a borderline lock.February 2, 2016 at 11:50 pm #214427
I don’t think Original Screenplay is a lock. Inside Out can pull a suprise win there.
Spotlight is a near-lock.
And sorry, but I don’t buy Inside Out as the winner in a top eight category. It’s an animated film. They had plenty of chances to honor animations in screenplay and they ignored them each time. And why would they honor an animation now? And an animation that wasn’t popular enough to break into best picture?