Oscar locks

[Moviebuff22Participant Joined: Jan 17th, 2016 Topics: 8 Posts: 725 View Predictions]

#214412

What categories do you guys think are completely locked, and what are some potential upsets you see happening at the Oscars. For me, I could see Rooney Mara and Tom Hardy stealing the supporting categories.

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[Moviebuff22Participant Joined: Jan 17th, 2016 Topics: 8 Posts: 725 View Predictions]

#214414

I believe actor and actress are locked, but being a lifelong fan of Leo’s I’m a little hesitant.

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[FilmatelistParticipant Joined: Nov 19th, 2011 Topics: 8 Posts: 388 View Predictions]

#214415

I have a hard time seeing anything but SPOTLIGHT and THE BIG SHORT winning their respective screenplay categories.  Those both seem pretty solid and can’t think of any film posing a real threat. 

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[Mladen VukcevicParticipant Joined: Oct 30th, 2013 Topics: 1 Posts: 235 View Predictions]

#214416

At this point Actor and Actress in all 4 categories. I thought that SAG might provide us with some excitement, but the fact that neither Rylance nor Mara took the prize means that Stallone and Vikander might be the ones taking the prizes, making all 4 acting categories absolutely predictable.

 

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[Ryan LapierreParticipant Joined: Dec 15th, 2013 Topics: 34 Posts: 774 View Predictions]

#214417

Actor, Actress, Sup actor, Sup actress, Foreign, Animated film, Orignal screenplay, Cinematography. Those 8 I think are all guaranteed for DiCaprio, Larson, Stallone, Vikander, Son Of Saul, Inside Out, Spotlight and The Revenant

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[Mad Max GuitaristParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2016 Topics: 4 Posts: 162 View Predictions]

#214418

Is it safe to assume that Writing’s on the Wall is a lock for original song?

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[Damiansport1Participant Joined: Dec 2nd, 2014 Topics: 11 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#214419

No. I think Lady Gaga wins song.

Locks:

DiCaprio
Larson
Vikander
Stallone
Big Short screenplay
Spotlight screenplay
Lubezki
Cinderella in costumes
Amy
Inside Out
Son of Saul
Morricone

So thats 12. I think Cinderella is a lock because its Powell and costumes are very showie. reminds me wins by Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby. I dont see anybody beating Morricone too. rest are obvious i think.

Close to lock:
Mad Max for effects
Mad Max for sounds categories
Mad Max for production design
Mad Max for makeup

That leaves BP, BD, editing, song and shorts up in the air. I really dont know what to do with shorts. World Tomorrows or Sanjay? Ave Maria or shok? help.

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[pablozeddParticipant Joined: Jan 3rd, 2016 Topics: 0 Posts: 165 View Predictions]

#214420

Leo

Brie

Alicia

Stallone

Inside Out

Son of Saul

Amy

Spotilight (Original Screenplay)

The Big Short (Adapted)

Diane Warren/Lady Gaga

And Mad Max for a bunch of categories.

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[PJ EdwardsParticipant Joined: Jun 2nd, 2011 Topics: 9 Posts: 2358 View Predictions]

#214421

Actor, actress, supporting actress, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, makeup, production design, visual effects, foreign film, animated, documentary, both sounds, score, cinematography, and song.

Damn looks like 95% may win again this year.

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[Daniel B.Participant Joined: Nov 22nd, 2010 Topics: 148 Posts: 1502 View Predictions]

#214422

Animated Feature and Best Actor are the only true locks in my opinion. And this is coming from someone who has never bet on DiCaprio to win an Oscar in the past.

Brie Larson is close to a lock, but I can see Ronan potentially pulling off an upset.

Stallone’s lack of SAG and BAFTA nominations leads be to believe that he isn’t quite the lock we’re making him out to be. All he’s got is a Golden Globe win, which isn’t exactly the most accurate precursor.  Can you name the last actor to win an Oscar after being left off the SAG and BAFTA ballots? It’s happened only once (Marcia Gay Harden).

I think Mark Rylance is the most likely winner. Only he and Christian Bale have been nominated at all of the major precursors, and Bale’s win for The Fighter may have been too recent for them to feel the need to award him again this soon (although, I suppose that hasn’t stopped them in the past – Christoph Waltz, Daniel Day-Lewis, Sean Penn, Tom Hanks, Hilary Swank, Ang Lee, among many others).

If Rylance wins the BAFTA, I think he’ll have the Oscar win in the bag. If Idris Elba wins BAFTA, I’m still betting on Rylance, but it would be far from a sure thing for any of the nominees.

I think Alicia Vikander is the likely winner for Supp. Actress, but I don’t think a Rooney Mara win is out of the question. 

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[IhatewatchingmoviesParticipant Joined: Jan 15th, 2016 Topics: 0 Posts: 4 View Predictions]

#214424

I don’t think Original Screenplay is a lock. Inside Out can pull a suprise win there.

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[Anonymous Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 116 Posts: 4767 View Predictions]

#214423

Alicia Vikander is anything, but a lock. A SAG win is sweet, but Winslet has won too many times there. BAFTA can tell us right. If Vikander wins for “Ex Machina”, she wins the Oscar. If Winslet wins the BAFTA (or Mara), we have a race. 

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[Moviebuff22Participant Joined: Jan 17th, 2016 Topics: 8 Posts: 725 View Predictions]

#214425

I don’t think Rylance is a big enough name to pull off that type of upset. Plus bridge of spies isn’t that big of movie. Bale and Tom Hardy are big time stars and ruffalo is in a likely best picture winner so if anyone beats Stallone I bet it’s one of those 3.

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[Michael NorrisParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2013 Topics: 3 Posts: 286 View Predictions]

#214426

When I think lock, I think, like, Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. I think the only locks this year are Actor and Animated Feature. I think Original Screenplay is a borderline lock.

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[Zooey the DreamerParticipant Joined: Jan 12th, 2012 Topics: 5 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#214427

I don’t think Original Screenplay is a lock. Inside Out can pull a suprise win there.

Spotlight is a near-lock.
And sorry, but I don’t buy Inside Out as the winner in a top eight category. It’s an animated film. They had plenty of chances to honor animations in screenplay and they ignored them each time. And why would they honor an animation now? And an animation that wasn’t popular enough to break into best picture? 

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