There is no such formula. The variables change every year, what the competition is in a category changes the equation, there are always incalculable X factors. Anyone who claims to have found the formula to any sort of exact degree is hallucinating.
this is a website by some guy whos made a formula using oscar history and precursors to figure out someones likelyhood of being nominated. Obviously theres no real way to know and it’s wrong plenty of the time, but I just find it fun to look at and it’s interesting the occasional time the formula calls an upset that people don’t expect