Home Forums Movies Oscar opening upset

Oscar opening upset

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 42 total)
Created
10 months ago
Last Reply
10 months ago
41
( +1 hidden )
replies
4274
views
21
users
5
4
4
  • Moviebuff22
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 17th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987619

    Since we have a thread about what nominations upset we want to happen, I’m curious to see what everyone’s predictions for an upset are. There always seems to be one. I’ll take a crack at it and say Jake Gyllenhaal gets the 5th best actor spot from Viggo.

    Reply
    Anonymous
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987621

    I see Janelle Monae upsetting Octavia Spencer really because I feel that golden globes and sag didn’t nominate her because they don’t know her, but when they actually see the film which the academy will Monae will come out ok top of her.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Lucille
    Participant
    Joined:
    Aug 21st, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987624

    I am hoping, but not predicting, for Ben Foster to show up in the supporting category.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Lucille
    Participant
    Joined:
    Aug 21st, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987626

    I am also predicting Annette Bening to take Amy’s spot despite Adams hitting all the precursors. I feel like Amy will end up being the one to miss out à la Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler.

    ReplyCopy URL
    thatfilmgirl
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 9th, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987634

    I’m also debating predicting Jake Gyllenhaal over Viggo. When was the last time someone was nominated with just a Bafta nom?

    I also don’t think Lucas Hedges will be nominated, nor do I think “can’t stop the feeling” will be nominated in original song.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Moviebuff22
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 17th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987640

    I’m also debating predicting Jake Gyllenhaal over Viggo. When was the last time someone was nominated with just a Bafta nom?

    I also don’t think Lucas Hedges will be nominated, nor do I think “can’t stop the feeling” will be nominated in original song.

    I’m not sure if it has happened before but BAFTA has some overlap with the academy so Jake being nominated there puts him as the most likely alternative if someone misses. I think Nocturnal Animals is going to get more nominations then captain fantastic and he’ll ride that wave into the 5th slot. Wouldn’t be shocked for Tom Ford to get into director either. That final director slot is a complete crapshoot IMO

    ReplyCopy URL
    Moviebuff22
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 17th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987643

    As for Hedges, he has missed globes and BAFTA while ATJ won the globe and was nominated at BAFTA. I do think it between those two for the final supporting actor slot, with Shannon and Costner as outside shots

    ReplyCopy URL
    BenitoDelicias
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 3rd, 2010
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987651

    I’m not considering Can’t Stop the Feeling for a nomination. I’ll believe that when I see it. It seems like the obvious choice to be snubbed after being such a logical choice for a nomination. These things happen to huge artists.

    Also, like Shailene Woodley, Andrew Garfield, Jacob Tremblay, where I certainly learned my lesson, I’m obviously leaving Lucas Hedges out. I can see Manchester becoming less and less important and he of course is the first one in line to suffer from that.

    Something big (Tom Hardy) or not big but shocking (Laura Dern) has to happen, we can’t be settled in with these people we’re predicting. (Yes, we predicted Hardy, but he missed a lot of precursors). Amy Adams is an obvious choice, even though I think she’s in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her as the Hanks, Thompson, Gyllenhaal of Oscar morning. Don’t bet everything on Viggo Mortensen either. He could easily be left out.

    I’m thinking the shock will come in the supporting categories, specially Supporting Actor, where there are many options and many cons against the predicted nominees. Supporting Actress seems set to me. I don’t think Janelle Monae is big enough to push Spencer out.

    ReplyCopy URL
    sofan
    Participant
    Joined:
    Oct 1st, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987657

    If someone’s missing from the Lead Actor race it will be Washington not Mortensen but I don’t think anyone’s missing from the consensus top 5. The former missed out on BAFTA while the latter hit all the precursors necessary, and his film wasn’t even loved by the BAFTA in any other categories and that just shows how passionate they were about his performance.

    BAFTA loves nominating Gyllenhaal, they also did with Nightcrawler but it didn’t work in his favor, it will be the same again.

    ReplyCopy URL
    MartinR
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 12th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987664

    I’m saying Annette Bening in and Amy Adams out. But my biggest wildest guess is Ben Foster for a nom in SA. I thought he was fantastic in “Hell or High Water”.

    I just don’t get the whole Aaron Johnson thing. I’d put Michael Shannon in that spot.

     

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 1 week ago by  MartinR.
    ReplyCopy URL
    Roney Moore
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 7th, 2016
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987669

    I mean, how is Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler and Mortensen in Captain Fantastic too different from each other. Both are praised performances in lesser seen films that got in everywhere. Nightcrawler’s guild run as a whole was still (much more) impresive yet didn’t stop the Academy to give it the cold shoulder to him.  I can see your passion argument with Mortensen but that last example contradicts with what you’ve said before it.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Zooey the Dreamer
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 12th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987674

    There is a huge difference between Shailene Woodley, Andrew Garfield, Jacob Tremblay AND Lucas Hedges.

    Hedges will be nominated for an Oscar. Woodley and Garfield didn’t have support from the industry. Both failed to receive SAG nominations in relatively weak supporting races. Tremblay, on the other hand, is much younger than the other actors and while he received a SAG nomination (like Hedges did), his film was not as popular with the industry as a whole as Manchester is. Manchester has PGA, DGA, WGA, Cinema Editors Guild, SAG nominations. Room didn’t even get into the PGA list. Manchester is far more popular with guilds and I believe, it will be quite popular with the Academy and especially the actors’ branch. There was also the constant discussion about Tremblay belonging in lead. This was one of the running themes of the season. Maybe he got lots of votes in both categories. Who knows…

    ReplyCopy URL
    Zooey the Dreamer
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 12th, 2012
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987677

    I mean, how is Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler and Mortensen in Captain Fantastic too different from each other. Both are praised performances in lesser seen films that got in everywhere. Nightcrawler’s guild run as a whole was still (much more) impresive yet didn’t stop the Academy to give it the cold shoulder to him. I can see your passion argument with Mortensen but that last example contradicts with what you’ve said before it.

    One big difference. That year’s actor race – while not particularly strong – was crowded. The Academy had options. This year they simply don’t have options as this is a really weak best actor year. And we all know the Academy won’t nominate Adam Driver.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Rinolo Twenty-two
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 27th, 2013
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987682

    – Hayley Squires for Supporting Actress for “I, Daniel Blake”.
    – Issey Ogata for Supporting Actor for “Silence”.

    ReplyCopy URL
    Lucas A
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 13th, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1201987685

    Going completely out on a limb and saying Laura Linney in Nocturnal Animals over Octavia.  If Nocturnal Animals does well across the board then maybe she could sneak in Jacki Weaver/Jonah Hill style.  Gotta have at least one fun prediction!

    ReplyCopy URL
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 42 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Similar Topics
RobertPius - Nov 18, 2017
Movies
Andrew ... - Nov 18, 2017
Movies