February 12, 2016 at 8:22 pm #216707
So, we all have Oscar predictions that we have a hunch about and go out on a limb thinking/hoping that we’ll be right, but end up being completelely wrong come Oscar night, leaving us to slap each other in the forhead, saying “God damm it, why didn’t I see that coming?!! What are some of your predictions that you’ve gotten wrong in the past and are still mad about years later?
Here are some of mine:
Best Actress 2012: I was foolishly on the Riva train this year, thinking that she would be able to pull a Cotillard. But unlike Cotillard, Riva barely did any campaigning and is not a 32 year old giving an extremely baity performance playing a real person. I should have seen that Lawrence had the advantage given her popularity and the wealth spreading factor, since SLP wasn’t really going to win anywhere else which leads me to..
Best Adapted Screenplay 2012: I was very stupid here and picked Silver Linings because I felt obliged to since I was not predicting it anywhere else and I did not think that it would go empty handed. Argo of course had to win more then 2 Oscars and its WGA win gave it a home turf advantage. Still wish Lincoln had upset though.
Best Original Screenplay 2012: Here, I bet on Zero Dark Thirty which wasn’t as bad as the other two (2012 was not a good year for me LOL even though I did get Waltz right)since this category was tricky- However, the fillm lost so much momentum after the Bigelow snub that it seems obvious it wouldn’t win anything major and Boal had won over Tarantino three years earlier(Ironically, I predicted the reverse result that year, thinking Inglorious Bastards could beat out The Hurt Locker due to being more “original”). I think Django was more popular then ZDT and Tarantino was overdue for awards recognition since he won the same award nearly 20 years earlier. There also was some leftover Inglorious Bastards love that must have helped him win.
Best Adapted Screenplay 2014: Here, I foolishly went with Whiplash because I stupidly believed the so called fucking experts that Whiplash had enough momentum to beat The Imitation Game. Just kidding, lol! But really, I should have seen that they wanted to spread the wealth and give The Imitation Game something. I think BAFTA kinda screwed up the category by honoring The Theory Of Everything which made support for The Imitation Game seem weaker then expected.February 12, 2016 at 9:22 pm #216709
Linklater for Director last year…WHY? Ignoring DGA was not one of my finest moments. Although I wasn’t the biggest fan of Boyhood, I found it so hard to believe that Linklater would walk away empty handed after putting 10 years into such a well-received film.February 12, 2016 at 10:21 pm #216710
Where to start?
2012, I had Ang Lee up until the day before when I stupidly decided that David O. Russell would win since he got four actors nominated. Moronic!
2013, BAFTA pushed me away from Lupita into Lawrence’s camp…stupid! Also went with Captain Phillips for editing, stupid!
2014, Went with Boyhood for picture and director, again BAFTA screwed me. I swore I wouldn’t blindly trust them again…but now the guilds split and I might have to!!!
But the absolute topper is a Golden Globes prediction, last year I had Grand Budapest until one hour before the prediction center closed and I switched to Birdman. God…dammit…that one will haunt me to my grave.February 12, 2016 at 11:12 pm #216711
I didn’t forsee a Lee win at all,I didn’t think any of the other contenders seemed strong enough to beat Speilberg, even though that category was crazypants that year. I also predicted a Lawrence win, but I’m not too ashamed of that prediction, since I did remarkably well, getting 22 out of 24 categories correct. I think when in doubt, go with the Guilds over the BAFTAS in regards to Picture and Director. Birdman’s a pretty American movie anyway.
February 13, 2016 at 5:29 pm #216712
I should have taken PGA/SAG/DGA more seriously last year with Birdman.
I stuck with DeNiro for Playbook over Waltz and that was another one I should have seen the signs though I thought that would be one that everyone would win at some point out of that group (Arkin/DeNiro both went empty handed)
I was stupid until the last minute last year going with Lost Stars over Glory. I came to my senses the night before.