Oscars 2017: Last-minute PANIC predicting nominations?

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  • Marcus James Dixon
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    #1201992658

    Who else is having last-minute panic predicting the 2017 Oscar nominations? Most notably, I am having trouble deciding what should go into the 10th slot for Best Picture and whether Aaron Taylor-Johnson will really earn a Best Supporting Actor nomination. What are YOU panicking over, fellow Derbyites?

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    ScandalWife
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    #1201992661

    I am having a hard time with actress and director.

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    Ianscheese
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    #1201992663

    Panicking over pretty much every category. Wanting Jackie and Silence to get in over Figures.

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    Riley
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    #1201992668

    I am having trouble deciding what should go into the 10th slot for Best Picture

    Best Picture will never have ten nominees and I refuse to predict that many, even though it would help my predictions score.

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    Nick Roman
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    #1201992672

    I have a nagging feeling that Colin Farrell will get in for The Lobster. But if you’d asked me three days ago, my itching suspicion would have been Jake Gyllenhaal in Nocturnal Animals. I’m almost certain I’m overthinking Best Actor, but it wouldn’t be Oscar season if I didn’t second-guess every thought I had.

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    M
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    #1201992673

    No year has enough consensus passion for ten nominees. They should go back to five soon.

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    Sagand
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    #1201992675

    Best Picture will never have ten nominees and I refuse to predict that many, even though it would help my predictions score.

    The maths for getting ten nominees isn’t that much different from getting nine. It’s much more likely than getting five or six in this system.

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    Riley
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    #1201992681

    No year has enough consensus passion for ten nominees. They should go back to five soon.

    I always say that the irony of the system is that when we finally do get a year with a wealth of contenders, that will probably be the year that we only get five nominees because votes will be spread so thin.

    Best Picture will never have ten nominees and I refuse to predict that many, even though it would help my predictions score.

    The maths for getting ten nominees isn’t that much different from getting nine. It’s much more likely than getting five or six in this system.

    In fifteen years (including the simulated years that the academy tested, but did not publicly disclose the specific results of), the system has usually yielded eight or nine nominees, occasionally five to seven and never ten. I am convinced that ten nominees will only ever be theoretical.

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    thatfilmgirl
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    #1201992687

    I keep going back and forth on director and who gets that 5th slot. I’m going with Davis but I feel like there’s only weak arguments to be made past Chazelle, Jenkins, Lonergan and Villeneuve.

    I’m also going on a limb and predicting Jake Gyllenhaal. I know he only has the Bafta nod but that’s all Gary Oldman and Javier Bardem in Biutiful had. I was never fully sold on Viggo being nominated.

    Also, how many nominations does Hidden Figures get? I realized I was only predicting it in three (BP, SActress and song). Should I put it in for costumes, prod design and/or screenplay?

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    PJ Edwards
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    #1201992693

    I guess my last two moves was working on assumption that Hacksaw would be a disappointment/tech only player and that Fences would also flop. In fact I think we are only getting 6 or 7 best pictures this year depending on the aforementioned Hacksaw Ridge. So I had to rejigger my predicts that made Hidden Figures a bit stronger and gave Manchester back its editing nom.

    There are a ton of moves I would make if there wasn’t such a high penalty for it. Like I think Portman will be snubbed but it ain’t worth 66/1 odds. Moana or red turtle could be snubbed too but since everyone under the sun is predicting it, not worth cost to actually bet on it.

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    Riley
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    #1201992696

    Moana or red turtle could be snubbed too but since everyone under the sun is predicting it, not worth cost to actually bet on it.

    Yes, which one will Your Name. bump?

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    Mangesh Gaikwad
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    Mangesh Gaikwad
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    #1201992699

    I am having a hard time with actress and director.

    Me 2

    It seems like anyone can get in :
    -Amy Adams for Arrival
    -Isabelle Huppert for Elle
    -Natalie Portman for Jackie
    -Emma Stone for La La Land

    The fifth one will be either Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins, Ruth Negga for Loving, or Annette Benning for 20th Century Women.

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    Mangesh Gaikwad
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    #1201992701

    Moana or red turtle could be snubbed too but since everyone under the sun is predicting it, not worth cost to actually bet on it.

    Yes, which one will Your Name. bump?

    This would be amazing :

    Zootopia

    Kubo and the Two Strings

    Miss Hokusai

    Your Name (Kimino nava )

    My Life as a Zucchini

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    Andy Macca McGaw
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    #1201992703

    The Handmaiden getting a couple of technical nods. I have it down for cinematography and production design.

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