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Oscars 2018 Nominations: Part 3 (Make Your Predictions Now)

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  • CitizenBlake
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    #1202203010

    I’m not even doubting for a second that Oldman is the frontrunner, but I know when an opportunity for Chalamet to leapfrog him will arise. Unfortunately, I think he’s in a situation where he needs even MORE raves to establish himself, as his movie hasn’t made the strongest of instant impacts due to its absence from certain events.

    I know I will prefer Chalamet, since he has the more underplayed performance, while Oldman will let himself go the reins as he’s usually done in a career full of delightful turns. Oldman is overdue, but Chalamet will have the more complex performance, which in my mind, is generally more awards worthy.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by  CitizenBlake.
    LaChienne
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    #1202203012

    in an ideal world, they’d tie

    #me  if we were so blessed with The Greatest Timeline

    manakamana
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    #1202203016

    There’s, uh, quite a bit in Oldman’s past to dig into and Churchill himself is getting reevaluated in some circles (he really was a terrible person tbh but whatever)

    Meryl Streep won for playing Margaret Thatcher, definitely not a popular figure by Hollywood standards.

    Yes, but Thatcher’s divisiveness was known going into that film.

    For the record, I don’t think there’s going to be a radical mainstream historical reevaluation of Winston Churchill anytime soon, I just bring that up as a topic of of conversation that people will use to try to discredit the film and performance. Whether it works or not is a different story.

    Honey
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    #1202203019

    And before someone ask why I compare oldman to Streep and not DDL-Lincoln, it’s cuz it’s a British leader like Thatcher while Lincoln obviously isn’t lol. So there would/could be some unintentional bias against it with the US Critics group. As it’s might not be a historical story that US groups might be familiar with or honestly care as much compared to a coming of age love story with other factors/actors getting major recognition right now.

    Bee
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    #1202203020

    I’m not sure though. If Chalamet wins the the relevant critics group, then I’ll see him as someone to look out for. Make no mistake, I want him to prevail. But I can already see the rooting factor for Oldman and he’s in a baity biopic with an in your face performance.

    in an ideal world, they’d tie (which I would love) But realistically speaking they both have their strengths and angle and I really do think timothees movie and role is more appealing to Critics group while oldmans won’t be. But people who are doubting him cuz of his age or whatever need to wake the fuck up that he can’t even be nominated lol. If u look at Meryl’s Iron Lady award run, she herself lost quite a lot of critic group awards especially the ones in the US (which is how I think timothee has the edge with Critics) whether it’s cuz the movie wasn’t well received, her performance, or her character being unlikeable, we don’t know.

    Um wasn’t Viola Davis taking a lot of the critics awards along with Michelle Williams? And Meryl won NYFCC. It didn’t matter in the end cause the industry saw Meryl as overdue anyways and gave her Globe, BAFTA and ultimately Oscar. I think the same happens to Oldman. It’s not like Darkest Hour is exactly The Iron Lady reception wise.

    Bee
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    #1202203021

    Oh and if CMBYN doesn’t get that Ensemble Nod from SAG it’s not winning Picture unless it’s truly undeniable.

    manakamana
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    #1202203023

    I’m not sure though. If Chalamet wins the the relevant critics group, then I’ll see him as someone to look out for. Make no mistake, I want him to prevail. But I can already see the rooting factor for Oldman and he’s in a baity biopic with an in your face performance.

    in an ideal world, they’d tie (which I would love) But realistically speaking they both have their strengths and angle and I really do think timothees movie and role is more appealing to Critics group while oldmans won’t be. But people who are doubting him cuz of his age or whatever need to wake the fuck up that he can’t even be nominated lol. If u look at Meryl’s Iron Lady award run, she herself lost quite a lot of critic group awards especially the ones in the US (which is how I think timothee has the edge with Critics) whether it’s cuz the movie wasn’t well received, her performance, or her character being unlikeable, we don’t know.

    I agree that Chalamet’s performance is likelier to play with the major critics groups (mainly NY/LA/NSFC) than Oldman’s, but I’d need to see more reviews for Darkest Hour first (even Meryl’s Thatcher won NY). I always look to see if one lead actor can win both NY and LA, which in the past has been indicative of who’ll win, but the last time they overlapped was with Firth. Since then, NY’s been a bit more predictive with wins for DDL and Casey Affleck.

    I’m pretty sure Oldman will win most of the umpteen smaller regional critics prizes but people overstate the importance of those every year. In the past it’s given people a lot of hope that Michael Keaton or Natalie Portman are unbeatable for Birdman or Jackie, respectively. I think it’s noteworthy as an established rubber stamping of consensus, which voters will look at — but they do whatever they please from there.

    pulp50
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    #1202203025

    It shouldn’t have any problem getting sag ensemble.

    sitizoner
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    #1202203026

    I’m surprised none of you are seeing DDL as a lock. Phantom will be his final film before he retires. I’d think the Academy would want to send him off with one last nomination and even a win.

    Honey
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    #1202203028

    My point is really to people who think he can’t be nominated. Like he’s American in the highest critically acclaimed movie released right now and if Critics favorite Beast of the southern wild movie can miss everywhere not named CC and get all the nominations especially Wallis it got on Oscar night, there’s like little to no reason to doubt timothee can’t get nominated for an American award show lol.

    mariogomez
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    #1202203029

    If Chalamet appears in Critics Choice nominations, he will increase his chances of getting nominated, because the Critics Choice is the only key for him right now.

    CitizenBlake
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    #1202203030

    I’m surprised none of you are seeing DDL as a lock. Phantom will be his final film before he retires. I’d think the Academy would want to send him off with one last nomination and even a win.

    For DDL, the nomination should be his “farewell” award. The stupid “retirement” angle he’s trying won’t work for shit I’m afraid. The Academy is starting to be a bit more like a typical critics group in terms of awards. While narratives will still be a major indicator of success, I think they understand they’re only interested in handing out the golden statue to the pure best this time around.

    Honey
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    #1202203031

    I’m surprised none of you are seeing DDL as a lock. Phantom will be his final film before he retires. I’d think the Academy would want to send him off with one last nomination and even a win.

    because nobody believes a 60 year old man is going to really retire and there’s some people comparing the movie to 50 shades, and nobody is rushing to give DDL wearing a Leash or gag mask an Oscar (if it’s true lol)

    pulp50
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    #1202203033

    I’m surprised none of you are seeing DDL as a lock. Phantom will be his final film before he retires. I’d think the Academy would want to send him off with one last nomination and even a win.

    He’s a lock for a nomination but not a win. I do wonder how many people take the retirement thing seriously and if that can affect it. I highly doubt he would win for that reason since he already has 3, but if he gives a TWBB type of performance, he could definitely win.

    CitizenBlake
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    #1202203036

    I’m fairly certain he won’t be able to top TWBB. That’s some seriously tough shit to do.

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