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September 12, 2017 at 10:29 am #1202211044
I don’t really post all that often, but here are some of the thoughts I have related to the Best Picture/Best Actor fields
Best Picture- Just from what is out there and been seen so far, I think that ‘Dunkirk’ is the only “sure thing” we have seen so far. ‘CMBYN’ benefits from the weaker big studio productions (not saying it doesn’t deserve it on its own merits), and it seems like The Darkest Hour and The Post (if it is ready) will be there to clean up when the time comes. I would love to see something like ‘Get Out’ crack into the lineup, because I am severely disappointed with this year’s choices. People often complain about “weak years” but this might be the weakest I have seen in a long time. The lineup this year just seems a little devoid of passion, and these history pictures should be fine but I doubt I am going to be blown away by them. ‘Dunkirk’ is definitely a technical wonder, but I did not connect to it at all. I think Oscar voters want things they can connect to which is why I have confidence in ‘Get Out,’ but man I am still waiting to be blown away by just one film. I wonder what it is going to be.
Best Actor- I think Chalamet might be a little young for Best Actor especially with all the heavy weights. It goes without saying that Oldman is a lock. DDL’s final film should put him in the mix too- he may just be the most universally respected actor in the industry. Even if the role isn’t bait-y I’m sure people will find something to like about it. Poor Hanks is too easy to pass up, but then again, he might benefit from the weaker year. I think Gyllenhaal is the new Leo, and while I get the feeling that Oldman has it wrapped up already I would bet that Jake gets another nomination this year. To those who think Skarsgard has a shot, I think a) he would be put in supporting because he has 0 shot in lead, and b) I would be legitimately surprised if ‘It’ received anything other than Makeup/Hair. Maybe the kids can pick up the breakout star nominations at the various critic awards, but I think Skarsgard is dead in the water (unintended reference) this year.September 12, 2017 at 10:49 am #1202211070
“The Disaster Artist” is getting rave reviews. Several critics think it’s an Oscar contender. For now I’m predicting it for Actor(James Franco) and Adapted Screenplay.
Totally here for this. But not predicting it yet. The 5th spot looks to be quite a race between Washington, Hanks, and now Franco. IMO, Chalamet and Cranston are in.September 12, 2017 at 11:05 am #1202211072
Just watch the recently-dropped Disaster Artist trailer and while it looks great I’m leaning more towards Adapted Screenplay than giving it a Best Actor slot; from the trailer alone it’s already more faithful to the source material than most adaptations >>September 12, 2017 at 11:12 am #1202211074
Gary Oldman is pretty much a lock.I would support Gyllenhaal, but I’m getting Mark Wahlberg desperateness in his role. Hanks doesn’t give a shit, he has 2 already. Chalamet is in and so is Day-Lewis. Franco would be funny plus Cranston is inching his way.
"We will always have Paris"September 12, 2017 at 11:23 am #1202211077
I wouldn’t call this a weak year. We already have 11 real contenders for Best Picture:
Battle of The Sexes
Call Me By Your Name
The Darkest Hour
The Disaster Artist
The Florida Project
The Shape of Water
Upcoming movies that could be nominated: Last Flag Flying, The Post, Wonder Wheel, The Phantom Thread, and The Greatest Showman. Eastwood and Scott might release films this year. I think one(or two) of those movies could flop and a couple could be moved to 2018.
Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay are also strong.September 12, 2017 at 11:43 am #1202211088
This time last year La La Land emerged as the front runner while Moonlight was still a somewhat obscure film from Telluride. I hope we get another exciting Oscar race. Imagine a goliath like Dunkirk against a plucky underdog like The Florida Project.September 12, 2017 at 11:52 am #1202211093
Jesus Best Actor has never been a competitive affair in so long, I believe since what, 2012?.
2013 and 2014 were both extremely competitive for Best Actor. In 2013 Hanks, Isaac, Phoenix, Redford and Whitaker missed out on Oscar noms. In 2014 Fiennes, Gyllenhaal, Oyelowo and Spall missed out. All were at least in the conversation.September 12, 2017 at 12:36 pm #1202211129
Hmm not sure I see The Disaster Artist as a serious player, beyond Adapted Screenplay. Will be intrigued to see how A24 splits its awards season resources, among that, The Florida Project and Lady Bird.
OSCAR FLASHBACK: Nicholson at the Oscars (1981) – RedsSeptember 12, 2017 at 3:16 pm #1202211230
I would imagine The Florida Project is their first priority for things like Picture and Director. It’s annoying since both Florida Project and Lady Bird are two of my most anticipated films this year, and I think with the right campaign, both could be strong contenders. It’ll be interesting to see what A24 does.September 12, 2017 at 4:48 pm #1202211256
Is Mother really in the top 5 for the Golden Globe odds for Best Drama? Have the Lawrence/Aronofsky fans gone crazy with their stanning? In fact I see a lot of predictions are based on who their faves are and not by logic or actual probability.September 12, 2017 at 5:16 pm #1202211274
Yes, I made that statement of “Best Avtor being a competition-less affair in so long” in terms of comparison to Best Actress. It has been competitive, but not on the level of Best Actress.September 12, 2017 at 5:27 pm #1202211283
I’m surprised more people aren’t predicting Hanks higher. I mean, he’s missed out a few times recently but starring in a political drama opposite Meryl Streep being directed by Steven Spielberg again? They wouldn’t pass that up. People love him so much and the fact that he’s missed out the few times means that they might want to reward him after all this time. And especially considering that the field this year is so weak, I think he’s at the level of DDL in likelihood of getting nominated and people have him in 6th and 7th!September 12, 2017 at 5:34 pm #1202211290
I’m surprised more people aren’t predicting Hanks higher. I mean, he’s missed out a few times recently but starring in a political drama opposite Meryl Streep being directed by Steven Spielberg again? They wouldn’t pass that up. People love him so much and the fact that he’s missed out the few times means that they might want to reward him after all this time. And especially considering that the field this year is so weak, I think he’s at the level of DDL in likelihood of getting nominated and people have him in 6th and 7th!
because Hanks has collaborated with Spielberg already 4x before and only got nominated once with him. Hanks can’t even get in when he has no co-lead for the past 16 years. Besides it seems more likely Spielberg would give Meryl the meatier role as he has never gotten an actress a win, so Hanks for all we know might have nothing to do, because NO TRAILER, CLIPS to tell us he does. For all I know, maybe he may fraud himself in supporting as he’s never actually competed in supporting before.September 12, 2017 at 11:09 pm #1202211493
It’s confirmed that Emma Thompson is not qualified for this year:September 12, 2017 at 11:34 pm #1202211507
Sight-unseen, I feel like The Florida Project will be this year’s little indie that scores big with nominations. The Academy loves independent features that cover tough subject matter with heart, like Beasts of the Southern Wild, Precious, Room, Whiplash, etc. I see it scoring nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay and a potential win in Supporting Actor for Dafoe.
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