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Oscars 2018 Nominations: Part 5 (Predict Now)

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  • seberko
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    #1202242575

    But seriously, what does this mean?

    seberko
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    #1202242577

    and 2>50.

    its 2>60 actually.

    But seriously, what does this mean?

    SN
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    #1202242592

    It’s very unlikely that Dunkirk will get SAG Ensemble (it WILL win Stunt Ensemble anyway) and Screenplay nominations. But if all that happens, we can see it’s going to win.

    Macca
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    #1202242634

    It’s very unlikely that Dunkirk will get SAG Ensemble (it WILL win Stunt Ensemble anyway) and Screenplay nominations. But if all that happens, we can see it’s going to win.

    I hope it doesn’t win stunts at SAG, Atomic Blonde was 10x better, but I do think it will get a nomination. Here’s how I see Stunt Ensemble playing out:

    Atomic Blonde
    Baby Driver
    Dunkirk
    Wonder Woman
    ???????

    Suzanne Vale
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    #1202242659

    “I, Tonya” trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc_rVewKPtw

     

    Pretty skimpy trailer; can’t wait to see it all the more.

    Miles Allen
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    #1202242663

    The trailer makes me think that it’s more of an actual comedy than other “comedies” that the Oscars go for. I still think Robbie and Janney will be nominated, but I’m not sure about any other categories.

    vlaxym
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    #1202242678

    IMO stars are almost perfectly aligning for Hawkins to take actress Oscar. Whenever there is older nominee who is already Oscar winner (Spacek in 01, Burstyn in 00, Christie in 07) Oscarless actress seems to prevail. Exception is Streep when she won for Iron Lady and that was a super close race and her gazillionth nomination. I just cant see McDormand winning second lead OSCAR after 20+ YEARS (only K.Hepburn and Streep achieved this I believe). The Shape of water is looking like a big awards player and because of nature of that film picture and director seem less likely and that important award to give this film seems to be Actress and maybe original screenplay. Not to mention great reviews Hawkins won for Maudie. Other contenders being an Oscar winners (Streep and Stone) will help Hawkins. Again nature of the film is the only thing that is working against her but Three Bilboards is not acacademys favorite kind of movie either. Saoirse Ronan seems to me to be bigger threat to Hawkins than McDormand.

    • This reply was modified 1 month ago by  vlaxym.
    eclipseart98
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    #1202242689

    IMO stars are almost perfectly aligning for Hawkins to take actress Oscar. Whenever there is older nominee who is already Oscar winner (Spacek in 01, Burstyn in 00, Christie in 07) Oscarless actress seems to prevail. Exception is Streep when she won for Iron Lady and that was a super close race and her gazillionth nomination. I just cant see McDormand winning second lead OSCAR after 20+ YEARS (only K.Hepburn and Streep achieved this I believe). The Shape of water is looking like a big awards player and because of nature of that film picture and director seem less likely and that important award to give this film seems to be Actress and maybe original screenplay. Not to mention great reviews Hawkins won for Maudie. Other contenders being an Oscar winners (Streep and Stone) will help Hawkins. Again nature of the film is the only thing that is working against her but Three Bilboards is not acacademys favorite kind of movie either. Saoirse Ronan seems to me to be bigger threat to Hawkins than McDormand.

    Do you think a Gotham snub will affect Sally’s Oscar chances?

    eclipseart98
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    #1202242691

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>

    </p>

    It’s very unlikely that Dunkirk will get SAG Ensemble (it WILL win Stunt Ensemble anyway) and Screenplay nominations. But if all that happens, we can see it’s going to win.

    <p style=”text-align: left;”>I hope it doesn’t win stunts at SAG, Atomic Blonde was 10x better, but I do think it will get a nomination. Here’s how I see Stunt Ensemble playing out: Atomic Blonde Baby Driver Dunkirk Wonder Woman ???????

    </p>
    But thinking realistically, recent films that won Best Stunt Ensemble are also nominated for BP (Hacksaw Ridge, Mad Max), so Dunkirk is probably a lock. I would add John Wick 2 in that nominations though.

    vlaxym
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    #1202242925

    IMO stars are almost perfectly aligning for Hawkins to take actress Oscar. Whenever there is older nominee who is already Oscar winner (Spacek in 01, Burstyn in 00, Christie in 07) Oscarless actress seems to prevail. Exception is Streep when she won for Iron Lady and that was a super close race and her gazillionth nomination. I just cant see McDormand winning second lead OSCAR after 20+ YEARS (only K.Hepburn and Streep achieved this I believe). The Shape of water is looking like a big awards player and because of nature of that film picture and director seem less likely and that important award to give this film seems to be Actress and maybe original screenplay. Not to mention great reviews Hawkins won for Maudie. Other contenders being an Oscar winners (Streep and Stone) will help Hawkins. Again nature of the film is the only thing that is working against her but Three Bilboards is not acacademys favorite kind of movie either. Saoirse Ronan seems to me to be bigger threat to Hawkins than McDormand.

    Do you think a Gotham snub will affect Sally’s Oscar chances?

    No. I dont even think critics group snubs would be huge given TSOW nature but GG/SAG/Bafta snub would be huge.

    CitizenBlake
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    #1202243033

    I think Sally is all good. She’s got a shit ton of the critic’s respect and admiration that Gotham isn’t going to stamp out by snubbing her. I suspect Gotham isn’t really invested in this type of film anyway, that’s probably why the film wasn’t nominated much.

    On another note, my fav Saoirse got the nomination. We shouldn’t be underestimating her for the win as well.

    Miles Allen
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    #1202243038

    I think Sally is all good. She’s got a shit ton of the critic’s respect and admiration that Gotham isn’t going to stamp out by snubbing her. I suspect Gotham isn’t really invested in this type of film anyway, that’s probably why the film wasn’t nominated much.

    On another note, my fav Saoirse got the nomination. We shouldn’t be underestimating her for the win as well.

    I agree about the Gothams. They don’t seem like they would respond to TSOW and in reality they don’t really matter much. The Gothams were the ones who gave the win to Bel Powley over Brie Larson when Larson won almost everything else that season. If we believe that Hawkins is the frontrunner, she doesn’t need the Gothams to help her out like Ronan and Robbie might.

    Hunter-ish
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    #1202243142

    Gotham never goes for the flashy, big film. That is why TSOW was shut out. Stop acting like it actually means something.

    M
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    #1202243622

    Colin Farrell gave my favorite male lead performance of the year in The Killing of a Sacred Deer.

    JB
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    #1202243632

    I love that this year’s Oscar race is so up in the air….

    At this point, these are my current Best Actress. Such an exciting race…

    Best Actress:
    Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
    Sally Hakwins, The Shape of Water
    Frances McDormand, Three Billboards…
    Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (yes, she’s that good)
    Meryl Streep, The Post
    ~ next in line
    Saorsie Ronan, Ladybird
    Annette Bening, Film Stars Dont Die in Liverpool (she is so wonderful in this, but I’m worried she’ll miss out again)
    Margot Robbie, I Tonya
    Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (never count her out)
    ~ possible
    Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
    Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
    Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

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