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Oscars 2018 Nominations Predictions (Part 7)

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  • Andrew D
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    Can somebody explain to me what’s so good about Daniel Kaluuya performance in Get Out? He did absolutly nothing. He even seems bored. I’m so confused…

    nothing is the answer its boring

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    Andrew D
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    Bob Odenkirk is great in The Post

    I love him and sight unseen i would fully support a nomination

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    FreemanGriffin
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    If the odds were to hold and the top five (and top ten in Best Picture) were to be the actual nominees I took a look to see how many nominations each film would get. Each year the academy surprises us, with more nominations for a few films and less for others, so this is based on the odds here on Goldderby that got at least 2 nominations:

    14 nominations: The Shape of Water
    9 nominations: Dunkirk
    8 nominations: Call Me By Your Name
    7 nominations: Darkest Hour
    6 nominations: The Post and Blade Runner 2049
    5 nominations: Lady Bird
    4 nominations: Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and Beauty and the Beast
    3 nominations: Get Out, Mudbound, Phantom Thread and Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    2 nominations: The Florida Project (which deserves so many more nominations; here’s hoping the academy comes to their senses and gives this superb movie far more than 2 nominations!), I, Tonya, The Disaster Artist, Coco, The Greatest Showman, Baby Driver and War For The Planet of the Apes

    Which films will perform better than the current odds and which ones will do less well? We will know in 6 weeks!

    0215MADman
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    For me, I’m not going with Billboards as Best Picture because it has too many early stumbles: No Best Picture in the Spirit Awards. No spot anywhere in the National Board of Review awards, not even in the indie category. So they had 21 chances to give it a mention as a top film of the year and they didn’t. The NBR is not the end all and be all but then it didn’t show up any where with the NY Film Critics either. Maybe it will rebound tomorrow with the LA Film Critics. However I listen to the Film Week podcast each week, they liked it but didn’t love it. Film Week critics are made up of the same people in the LA Film Critics Association. So I’ll be surprised if it wins a lot of awards with LAFCA.

    While I’m not gonna act like Three Billboards’s chances are as good as last week (they aren’t), I’m still changing none of my predictions right now. The Independent Spirit Awards snub isn’t good, but considering there are Best Picture winners that didn’t have a nomination for the ISA (although those that did won it), that’s not lowering it’s chances as of now.

    Also not lowering it’s chances are the NYFCC and LAFCA awards. If we were talking Critics’ Choice, yeah it’s not happening. But for the Oscars, just on statistics alone, they aren’t really that good at predicting winners. Especially not NYFCC, which hasn’t got it right since The Artist. Not to mention that Lady Bird is under A24. They won Best Picture last year, so I’m not too confident about them pulling off 2 in a row like bigger companies can. Now, LAFCA is doing better recently (albeit slightly) but I’m not too sure about a Call Me By Your Name win. A gay movie JUST won BP, and that’s a step forward, but again, 2 in a row is fairly unlikely. But more importantly, CMBYN is under Sony, who haven’t won BP since The Last Emperor. So if CMBYN wins BP, it will be Sony’s first win in 30 years. Although the more I think about it, since there’s no big frontrunner this year, if Sony wanted to they could REALLY push CMBYN hard and win (they’ve got Adapted Screenplay locked in so that’s on their side).

    Not showing up on NBR’s list period does hurt it though. But what else am I going to think is gonna win right now? CMBYN would be a historic win that I honestly wouldn’t mind happening, but in that scenario I’d rather be wrong in predicting it’s loss. As for the other movies on the list, half of them are not getting nominated period, and the other half consist of The Florida Project (no), Lady Bird (hesitant unless it starts sweeping awards throughout December and/or January), Dunkirk (when was the last time a WWII movie was a big Oscar splash?), and Get Out (will be snubbed outside Screenplay, Editing, and maybe Picture). Skipped The Post because the last NBR movie to win was Slumdog. And no one is really going gaga about The Post. If Fox is pushing any movie this year, it’s gonna be Three Billboards or The Shape of Water.

    All in all, as many have pointed out, it’s way too bloody early. Will my predictions change? Probably (del Toro’s dying out there). We’ll just have to wait and see.

    TVFan365
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    The Big Sick will probably be this year’s Moonrise Kingdom, where it gets into Best Picture at the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, PGA and AFI list but still end up with only having an Original Screenplay nomination.

    BrenoLimaMusic
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    Time’s Top 10 movie performances

    http://time.com/5047536/top-10-movie-performances-2017/

     

    10. meryl streep (the post)

    9. bob odenkirk (the post)

    8. millicent simmonds (wonderstruck)

    7. tiffany haddish (girls trip)

    6. lois smith (marjorie prime)

    5. laurie metcalf (lady bird)

    4. willem dafoe (the florida project)

    3. armie hammer (call me by your name)

    2. timothee chalamet (call me by your name)

    1. saoirse ronan (lady bird)

    Teridax
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    Time’s Top 10 movie performances

    http://time.com/5047536/top-10-movie-performances-2017/

    10. meryl streep (the post)

    9. bob odenkirk (the post)

    8. millicent simmonds (wonderstruck)

    7. tiffany haddish (girls trip)

    6. lois smith (marjorie prime)

    5. laurie metcalf (lady bird)

    4. willem dafoe (the florida project)

    3. armie hammer (call me by your name)

    2. timothee chalamet (call me by your name)

    1. saoirse ronan (lady bird)

    TIME got this one right! Saoirse Ronan is coming for that Oscar. 😀

    But Odenkirk was better than Meryl Streep in The Post?! Now I really can’t wait to see that movie!

    LegendOfMatt
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    They recently screened All the Money in the World for the HFPA, so I’m currently predicting a Supporting Actor nom for Christopher Plummer at the GGs, but not saying that translates to an Oscar nom.

    FreemanGriffin
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    Time’s Top 10 movie performances

    http://time.com/5047536/top-10-movie-performances-2017/

    10. meryl streep (the post)

    9. bob odenkirk (the post)

    8. millicent simmonds (wonderstruck)

    7. tiffany haddish (girls trip)

    6. lois smith (marjorie prime)

    5. laurie metcalf (lady bird)

    4. willem dafoe (the florida project)

    3. armie hammer (call me by your name)

    2. timothee chalamet (call me by your name)

    1. saoirse ronan (lady bird)

    Interesting: so they are choosing Timothee Chalamet as Best Actor, Saoirse Ronan as Best Actress, Armie Hammer (Hooray!) for Best Supporting Actor, and Laurie Metcalf for Best Supporting Actress – I would vastly prefer those four to win (albeit I love Willem Dafoe as well as Armie Hammer) and that would make for a wonderful Oscar night (:

    Honey
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    There’s another list also with Vulture

     

    http://www.vulture.com/2017/12/the-10-best-film-performances-of-2017.html

    Vulture’s Top 10 Performance of 2017

    1. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
    2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
    3. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
    4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
    5. Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
    6. Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
    7. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
    8. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
    9. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
    10. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

    FreemanGriffin
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    ^never heard of A Quiet Passion? I do wish they included Bria Vinaite – I guess her performance was just too real…

    GusCruz
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    There’s another list also with Vulture

    http://www.vulture.com/2017/12/the-10-best-film-performances-of-2017.html

    Vulture’s Top 10 Performance of 2017

    1. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
    2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
    3. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
    4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
    5. Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
    6. Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
    7. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
    8. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
    9. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
    10. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

    Yes for Nixon!

    Also, OldHam keeps having a hard time… lol

    Andrew Carden
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    Love the Simmonds mention!

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    unbb24
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    Time’s Top 10 movie performances

    http://time.com/5047536/top-10-movie-performances-2017/

    10. meryl streep (the post)

    9. bob odenkirk (the post)

    8. millicent simmonds (wonderstruck)

    7. tiffany haddish (girls trip)

    6. lois smith (marjorie prime)

    5. laurie metcalf (lady bird)

    4. willem dafoe (the florida project)

    3. armie hammer (call me by your name)

    2. timothee chalamet (call me by your name)

    1. saoirse ronan (lady bird)

    I’m surprised to see Bob Odenkirk on the list.

    LegendOfMatt
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    Nov 1st, 2014
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    I’ve seen a lot of praise for Bob Odenkirk for The Post. I think he’s getting in. Dropping out will be either Shannon or Jenkins for TSoW, or perhaps one of the two CMBYN guys. I truly think one will be snubbed come Oscar time. I think the globes will snub one and that may be a good indicator. Although Aaron Taylor-Johnson picked up some noms and in the end it was Shannon, so who knows maybe we’ll see the same scenario with CMBYN or TSoW. Exciting stuff! Way more fun to predict when there are so many actors battling it out!

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