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Oscar’s Best Actor Race: It’s a TIE!

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    #118408

    It’s one of those weird things about statistics — Redford has 12 Experts predicting he’ll win Best Actor compared to 9 for Ejiofor, but they both have the same racetrack odds — READ MORE

    http://tinyurl.com/n7ktmn8

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    ETPhoneHome
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    #118410

    This is shaping up to be a very exciting race! All of the acting races seem so close now, and I can’t wait to see what happens when Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle come in, and maybe shake everything up.

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    babypook
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    #118411

    With a race this close at this point, I’m looking at the Directors and their record for making films with nominated and winning perfs.
    McQueen has impressive nominations without Oscar acting noms, but clearly that’s about to change. Same with Chandor.
    Jean-Marc Vallée has yet to receive Oscar recognition and I’m clearly biased where he is concerned. That’s going to change this year as well.
    Greengrass has not made a film with an acting nod, but ditto again that this will change and quickly.
    Payne has Clooney,  T Haden Church,  Virginia Madsen, Nicholson and Bates.
    Scorsese has garnered both wins and noms for his cast and there are so many,
    Lee Daniels has Mo”Nique and Sidibe, and Halle Berry, and we can all bet Oprah at least gets in.
    Coogler’s Fruitvale could see a nom for Jordon, and why not? Didnt he win with Cannes?
    Spike Jonze, whom I happen to love, has Keener, and now possibly Joaquin.
    Villeneuve, one of my favorite Canadian directors, just might have a nominated actor this year.
    Then, there’s David O Russell, whose record for winning and nominated actors, given his tenure, is impressive; Lawrence, Leo, Bale, Cooper, and who knows how many with AH.
    Next we have the Coens, with McDormand, W H Macy, Bardem. Bridges, Steinfeld, and possibly Isaac.

    Almost all of them have Oscar wins or nominations, or equivalent accolades. So, taking a look at who’s been nominated before plus the director’s record for producing acting noms, none of which matters a hill of beans really at crunch time, some of the contenders may have a better chance than it appears.

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    Oscar King
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    #118412

    Those of us from the gambling fraternity know how to prioritise , to willow out the wheat from the chaff with calculated risk ; ergo, it’s a two horse race with Ejiofor as the real fav due to the momentum of a winning movie ; while it’s true that the actors rule the voting and it seems that they will go for Redford due to the fact that his performance yearns back to the silent era when an actor must express himself through subtle facial expressions and body language and the fact that he is one of Hollywood’s ”golden boys ”it does seem like they will be mightily impressed ; however , he’s in a slow tedious movie going nowhere at the box office , whereas 12 YAS is a steam train a coming and statistically , biographical movies , even fictionalised , when they win will virtually ALWAYS win best actor/actress too
    The winning momentum is with Ejiofor and Redford must win either the GG or the SAG to even remain afloat , and let’s face it , he likely will win SAG , but then I suspect that enough of those actors will jump ship and allie themselves with other Academy voters to finally reward Ejiofor with the well deserved Oscar …it aint over yet , but it soon will be !

        

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    babypook
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    #118413

    ^
    Well ‘gambler’, I hope you’re right. Ejiofor, is incredible. But,  I’m not ready to put my ‘chip’ next to him just yet.

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    Nessie
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    #118414

    I thought Ejiofor gave a fine performance, but except for the bit where he appears to lose all hope and joins the other slaves in singing spirituals, I didn’t find anything he did exceptional. The role itself, despite being the backbone and soul of the movie, was essentially passive, reacting to what happened to him. Fassbender and Lupita necessarily outshone him in what were much flashier roles. Solomon’s dignity was his essential quality and dignity, while very noble, just isn’t all that compelling to watch.

    I’m sure he’ll be nominated but I don’t think he’ll win. I don’t think Redford will either.

    I think it’s between McConaughey, Dern and possibly Phoenix. Hanks was fine but getting that 3rd Oscar is damn hard and Hanks is no Daniel Day-Lewis. 

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    Scottferguson
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    #118415

    There is zero passion behind Redford among members from everything I’ve heard. He might get into SAG (because of no preferential balloting). But I question whether he will have enough #1 votes to make it, whereas Dern, Ejiofor and McConaughey should have no problem.

    Redford isn’t even campaigning, for which I give him credit, but it doesn’t help.

    My sense at this absurdly early date is that if Redford is nominated, Ejiofor is the frontrunner. If he isn’t. that will help Dern, who for me would then be the frontrunner.  

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    benbraddock
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    #118416

    If the academy is going away from Ejiofor
    my feeling is that it will be to the benefit of Bruce Dern
    who gives an amazing performance..

    I dont get the Redford love….other than the appreciation
    of a 77 yr old actor working so hard physically..
    His acting is quite limited, as usual…

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    babypook
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    #118417

    I thought Ejiofor gave a fine performance, but except for the bit where he appears to lose all hope and joins the other slaves in singing spirituals, I didn’t find anything he did exceptional. The role itself, despite being the backbone and soul of the movie, was essentially passive, reacting to what happened to him. Fassbender and Lupita necessarily outshone him in what were much flashier roles. Solomon’s dignity was his essential quality and dignity, while very noble, just isn’t all that compelling to watch.

    I’m sure he’ll be nominated but I don’t think he’ll win. I don’t think Redford will either.

    I think it’s between McConaughey, Dern and possibly Phoenix.

    Hanks was fine but getting that 3rd Oscar is damn hard and Hanks is no Daniel Day-Lewis. 

    Well he isnt Daniel Day-Lewis,  He’s Tom Hanks. Iimo, he’s equally talented and just as diverse; perhaps more so. DDL is respected yes, and Hanks, is very well liked, the latter which is just as much of a factor.. It’s Oscar as opposed to Chlotrudis.

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    Oscar King
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    #118418

    Oscars are rarely awarded to purely the best performance as there are various other factors to consider …ergo , Dern’s may well be the most polished performance , but he plays the role of an  senile , canterous ,old curmudgeon ( an old white dude ) in a movie like the Dallas buyers Club that’s not going to do well at the B O and when 12 YAS takes off like a forrest fire he, like Mcconaughey , will be eclipsed into the shadowlands

    The best actor/actress race is often used to showcase the glamour and fantastic dreams of Hollywood and a young , handsome , charming black man (with a brit accent ) is exactly what they are looking for   ….throw in the explosive politics and historical grand narative and it seems to me to be the obvious winner …

    I come to this conclusion already convinced that 12 YAS wins BP ,; naturally, those of us not so convinced will probably see the BA race somewhat differently   

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    vozas
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    #118419

    This has the potential to be a great category this year. Best Actor has been really inspiring in recent years, especially last season. Good to see.

    Best Actress on the other hand has been kinda terrible since 2007, aside from that lovely line up in 2011.

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    Stardust
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    #118420

    Laughing at the “frontrunner” status of Redford, when in reality the man has a solid chance of not being nominated. Surely people trying hard to make him happen a la Watts (that one actually did make me chuckle)..

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