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OSCARS PREDICTIONS: Our Experts vs. YOU Derbyites — who’s smarter?

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  • Tom O’Neil
    Keymaster
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    May 13th, 2011
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    #192916

    OK, we now have a dozen (and more coming) predictions by Oscar experts here at Gold Derby:

    http://tinyurl.com/msa249f

    http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/oscars-2015-nominations-nominations/best-picture.html

    Here are the racetrack odds generated by combining the experts’ picks:

    http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/300/

    Compare those to the odds of more than 500 of our Users who’ve made Oscar predictions:

    http://www.goldderby.com/odds/users/300/

    The two lists are fairly similar, but there are many notable disagreements. Which list is SMARTER?

    Reply
    CanadianFan
    Participant
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    Jul 23rd, 2012
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    #192918

    Of COURSE the experts have Bradley Cooper (‘Burnt’) way down at #22 right now (they just never learn). Users are slightly better for having him at #17, but he is top ten for sure.

    The experts’ best supporting actor category is a mess. Jason Segel and Paul Dano? Robert De Niro at #11 (users have him at #6). 

    Cute, the experts are buying into Kristen Stewart for supporting actress. Both lists are bad. Ellen Page is not getting in for ‘Freeheld’ — at least the experts have Fonda.

    Advantage users.

    Bravo, Tom, for having ‘Joy’ #1 and ‘Son of Saul’ in your list.

     

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    Halo_Insider
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    #192919

    As a general answer – The Users! Always.

    Now, Users vs. Editors is usually a bit more interesting to compare.

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    24Emmy
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    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #192920

    I’d be curious to see separate lists for active posters and those that lurk. See the difference between the opinions voiced and the ones that we never hear about unless they win a contest.

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    Anonymous
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    #192921

    I think we cannot really call anyone an expert.

    The first Oscar season I’ve followed at the age of 14 was the 2007’s season. It’s been 8 years…I’ve watched most of the Oscar contenders, re-watched and watched many classics, and also rewarded films in my personal awards (2010-) which means that I’ve seen about 100-110 films per seasons. Does it make me an expert? Well, I’m definitely not an “outsider”…But I’m not an expert either. And those “experts” are hardly experts too. Don’t get me wrong, I respect many of them, including Tom, I just don’t think that they should get the power over the general users (I feel the same way about the editors as well)…we are all as experts as they are, so not really.

    I have huge issues with the Predictions Center, and that’s why Awards Watch is bitchy to us. Their poll system is so much better, their predictions are so much real. Like look at our predictions…We have a few hundred people voting for the first time…then most of them disappear and never update their predictions. I think we should only count those predictions in which are updated monthly. Couse it’s fair that way. The same goes to editors & experts. You need to update your predictions monthly, or it’s just bad data.

    Now, I love Gold Derby, and I would like to see the improvement with it’s forum system, personal emailing, postings and predictions-system. Like guys did you ever consider to move the forums to another board where the technique would be much easier to handle?

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    benutty
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    #192922

    I love this topic, Tom! Thanks for asking it 🙂

    The things I’m most surprised by when looking at the experts’ predix so far:

    No expert (so far) is predicting The Martian in Best Picture.
    Two years ago Gravity took the season by storm. Last year Interstellar posed a real threat, one I think would have been bigger if Paramount had mounted a legit campaign for it. And now we have The Martian, which comes with a lot of Oscar pedigree–I think people want to see Ridley Scott succeed again. But we also have past nominees Damon, Chastain, Ejiofor and Wiig on board as well as Emmy winner Jeff Daniels, all in great roles. It’s bound to contend in enough below-the-lines to pose a real threat in the BP field. An important thing to keep in mind is that since the expansion of the BP field, no film has earned more than 5 nominations without being a BP nominee as well and only 3 have gotten exactly 5 without a BP nomination. If The Martian picks up the same 5 nominations that Interstellar got (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects) then it would only need Cinematography or Damon in Lead Actor to make it to the 6 nomination threshold. I think that’s a STRONG possibility.

    This time last year only one expert was predicting Whiplash.
    Because Whiplash was still so under the radar at this point last year, only one expert (Keith Simanton) was predicting it for a BP nomination. I can’t help, but wonder which “unspoken for” film is going to take that spot this year, if any. Right now it looks like the least spoken for predix are: Room, Brooklyn, 45 Years, Love & Mercy, Trumbo and Youth. My best guess is that Brooklyn is the one flying well under the radar waiting for a late surge–it has a similar release pattern to Whiplash (people saw it at Sundance and it’s being held for a Fall release while showing at other fests along the way). 

    Best Actor nominations without a BP nom for film.
    Since the expansion of the BP field, only 8 out of 30 actors have been nominated in the lead field without their film getting a BP nomination (comparatively, 4 out of 5 lead actress nominees last year were nominated for films not nominated for BP). Experts are predicting nominations for the following actors in films that none of the experts nominated for BP: Ejiofor, Ruffalo, Hardy (4 votes!), Damon, Maguire, McKellen. That’s a lot.

    Lack of acting nominations for Joy.
    Only one expert hasn’t predicting a nomination for Joy (Anne Thompson, because she only predix films she’s seen) and only 2 (Anne & then Peter Travers) haven’t predicted a nomination for Jennifer Lawrence. But the thing about David O. Russell’s Oscar films is that they come to the table with at least three acting nominations. He makes ensemble films. Joy isn’t an ensemble film. And only four experts have predicted acting nominations aside from Jennifer Lawrence’s–three for DeNiro, one for Cooper. The fact is Joy is already playing much smaller than DOR’s other films so I’m not convinced the BP/BD predix are justifiable yet.

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    PJ Edwards
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    #192923

    I’d have to go with experts so far since there seems to be done fanboy picks by users. Too high on revenant, too low on Danish girl and beasts. Also Keaton in spotlight? Really?

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    Zayner
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    #192924

    How/Why is Saorise Ronan so low on the Expert’s list? She’s at least top ten

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    Halo_Insider
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    #192925

    I’d have to go with experts so far since there seems to be done fanboy picks by users. Too high on revenant, too low on Danish girl and beasts. Also Keaton in spotlight? Really?

    A couple of editors have him listed, too (in pretty high positions), in addition to having Spotlight as a BP contender.

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    24Emmy
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    #192926

    Cute, the experts are buying into Kristen Stewart for supporting actress. Both lists are bad. Ellen Page is not getting in for ‘Freeheld’ — at least the experts have Fonda.

    How do you know? I’m surprised people are still so high on Jennifer Jason Leigh. She was my extremely early pick at the beginning of the year, but I’ve read (here and elsewhere) that her character isn’t much of anything.

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    FilmGuy619
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    #192927

    I’d have to go with experts so far since there seems to be done fanboy picks by users. Too high on revenant, too low on Danish girl and beasts. Also Keaton in spotlight? Really?

    Much like some of the other pedigree contenders (Joy, Bridge of Spies, Suffragette, etc.), I’m still taking Danish Girl with a grain of salt. If it gets a positive response, I’m sure it’ll gain serious traction. But I’m going to wait until the reviews come out before I can put it on my predictions list because I think the main reason experts are predicting it so high is because they have high expectations for the pedigree behind it. 

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    PJ Edwards
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    #192928

    The difference between those pedigree contenders and TDG, is that TDG is playing EVERYWHERE. It’s even in competition in Venice. Now, I’ll be more then happy for it to flop, but with it but with the Focus spam push behind it and the Redmayne campaign machine, I don’t really see any reason to doubt it at this point.

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    TomHardys
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    Aug 24th, 2013
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    #192929

    I honestly think the users are having much more cohesive predictions than the experts.

    I’d like to hear the rationales behind Joy’s sudden resurgence as the #1 choice for Best Picture after The Revenant’s dominance for the past few days. What has changed since two days ago that I’m not aware of?

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    benutty
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    #192930

    I honestly think the users are having much more cohesive predictions than the experts.

    I’d like to hear the rationales behind Joy’s sudden resurgence as the #1 choice for Best Picture after The Revenant’s dominance for the past few days. What has changed since two days ago that I’m not aware of?

    I think the difference between experts and users is that experts have access to information & sources on the PR/strategy side that most users do not and that informs a lot of their opinions. The other factor is that experts are, for the most part, doing their job and that job, at least in part, involves being the more right than their competition so IMO their predictions skew safe where users are more likely to take risks. Joy, for instance, is a very safe pick because of DOR’s and JLaw’s track record. I also think that QT coming out in support of DOR may have helped swing the pendulum toward Joy in the last few days.

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    Edwin Drood
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    #192931

    I wanted to make my early predictions but I got a message telling me that predictions for the Oscars are closed…

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