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Oscars Slugfest: Paul Sheehan and I dish latest predictions

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  • Tom O’Neil
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    May 13th, 2011
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    #169711

    You Derbyites have been asking for more slugfests. Well, here are a few new ones …

    OSCARS PREDICTIONS SLUGFEST: Our Executive Editor Paul Sheehan and I come out swingin —
    http://www.goldderby.com/news/7962/oscars-predictions-birdman-boyhood-selma-entertainment-13579086-story.html

    http://shar.es/13KxyK

    GLOBES/ SAG TV SLUGFEST — with Marcus, Daniel, Matt, Ralph and Charlie
    http://www.goldderby.com/news/7966/golden-globes-sag-awards-kevin-spacey-viola-davis-bill-murray-uzo-aduba-entertainment-13579086-story.html

    http://shar.es/13Kxeh

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    Amanda Spears
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    Jul 26th, 2012
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    #169713

    Tom

    Could we see a British Backlash at the oscars, meaning if their are four British nominees and Keaton…wouldn’t that almost guarantee him the win. I’ve been doing a lot of research and I cannot find an example on the Actor side where four of the nominees were Brits and the 5th was American. I am aware that this has happened on the Actress side in 97 that probably helped Helen Hunt win.  

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    ETPhoneHome
    Participant
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    Jan 3rd, 2013
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    #169714

    Great points in the Oscars podcast! A few things though

     – Theory of Everything is not going to win BP. There are only 4
    possible winners. Boyhood, Birdman, Selma, and I’m seeing Imitation Game
    tonight so I’ll have to say then if it has any chance.
    The MLK factor + Duvernay is why I’m picking Selma for BP, but I haven’t seen it yet. I think the SAG ensemble nomination is more revealing about Eddie Redmayne’s chances, and he is my pick for best actor, but it isn’t his
    to lose. It’s a huge toss-up.

     I agree with Paul that the TV factor is a real thing. Aniston has
    not been on TV for a while though. She is one of the highest paid female movie
    stars right now, even if it is mostly for comedies.

    –  And Arquette is NOT a lead. Why do people keep saying that? Yes
    she is the actress with the biggest role, but she doesn’t have anywhere near
    the screentime to be a lead. All the lead actress contenders are true leads.
    Just being the biggest female role doesn’t make you a lead. Is Vanessa Redgrave the lead in Foxcatcher? She may have the biggest female role, but no one would dispute a supporting placement for her.

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    Matty G
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    Jul 2nd, 2011
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    #169715

    Tom

    Could we see a British Backlash at the oscars, meaning if their are four British nominees and Keaton…wouldn’t that almost guarantee him the win. I’ve been doing a lot of research and I cannot find an example on the Actor side where four of the nominees were Brits and the 5th was American. I am aware that this has happened on the Actress side in 97 that probably helped Helen Hunt win.  

    1983: Robert Duvall def. Michael Caine, Tom Conti, Tom Courtenay and Albert Finney. Nationality has been cited as a factor in that win, although I’m sure the fact that Duvall was a 20-year veteran and three-time previous nominee didn’t hurt, either.

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    rstang00
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    #169716

    Good stuff here. I think it’s the right call looking at alternatives to “Boyhood” in the Best Picture race but I wouldn’t go too crazy and think tha anything beyon “Selma” or “Birdman” can top it. Maybe “Theory” but definitely not “Imitation.”

    Jake Gyllenhaal is getting some strong support from just about everywhere for “Nightcrawler.” It being an LA based film (which LA folks love LA) I think he’s a pretty safe bet for that 5th actor slot and it’s almost there for Pic/Editing/Screenplay. I’m banking on Gyllenhaal since I just bet someone $50 that he’d get in over Carell. Oh, and as for both your Rene Russo shout-outs (which is still a possibility): 
     

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    24Emmy
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    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #169717

    Yeah. It certainly looks like it’s down to Boyhood vs. The Imitation Game vs. Selma for Best Picture. Birdman maybe with an outside shot.

     

    We shall see what happens with the DGA nominations. Will Morten Tyldum make it?

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    Carlo
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    Oct 6th, 2011
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    #169718

    Tom, so did you see Cake?
    What do you think of Jennifer performance?
    Good but not great? 

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