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Oscars: What If?

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  • Paul Rankin
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    #1201981188

    Hi everyone:

    I was thinking the other day how this year’s Oscar race for Best Supporting Actress could have been impacted by the 2008 and 2011 Oscars. Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader even though she campaigned for Supporting. Had she been nominated for Supporting she still likely would have won. However, with her out of the Lead race Meryl Streep probably would have won for Doubt giving her her long overdue third Oscar. With her receiving that third Oscar perhaps the Academy wouldn’t have voted for her for The Iron Lady in 2011. In that case Viola Davis probably would have won for The Help meaning that she wouldn’t be an overdue veteran this year.

    Obviously being overdue for an Oscar is not the only reason Davis is favored this year as she’s a fantastic actress but I think it definitely plays a role. However, in the scenario I listed above the overdue veteran narrative wouldn’t be present. Perhaps in that situation Michelle Williams would be considered the favorite this year.

    I was curious if anyone else has wondered something similar in previous years. Whether it be category placement, year of a particular film’s release or any other factor I would love to hear other Oscar “What ifs?”

    I hope everyone is doing well.

    • This topic was modified 10 months, 2 weeks ago by  Paul Rankin.

    First Place- 2015 DGA Awards
    First Place- 2015 Razzie Award Nominations
    First Place- 2015 Academy Of Country Music Awards

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    Eddy Q
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    #1201981217

    Funny you mention Michelle Williams, as I actually think she might have won in 2011 if Meryl Streep had won for Doubt, for the following reasons:

    1. She was playing a Hollywood icon, so it would have been the same narrative of ‘famous person vs. fictional borderline lead/supporting role’
    2. She had Weinstein who would have put more into her campaign over Streep’s if the latter had won recently
    3. The Help had no nominations from any branch except actors. Even as a Best Picture nominee (which it may not have been in a field of 5) it might not have had enough support to win two acting Oscars. Almost all double acting winners at least have nods for writing or editing.

    So in that scenario, Viola Davis would still be considered due, and would still be sweeping this year.

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    M
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    #1201981221

    Televised precursors supported Davis as the runner up. Only the Globes gave Williams a boost.

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    Philip
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    #1201981223

    For all we know, Winslet could have won both.

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    Bee
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    #1201981233

    Won’t happen. And Winslet should’ve won for Little Children or even Eternal Sunshine. Not no damn Reader and not for Revolutionary Road either.

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    Andrew Carden
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    #1201981256

    Yeesh, I find it awfully difficult to picture Streep with an Oscar for Doubt. Perhaps Anne Hathaway could have somehow won, clearing the way for Sally Field to pick up Oscar #3 a few years later?

    Davis, of course, was runner-up for The Help. Frankly, I think she’d be winning Oscar #2 this year.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

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    M
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    #1201981267

    Won’t happen. And Winslet should’ve won for Little Children or even Eternal Sunshine. Not no damn Reader and not for Revolutionary Road either.

    The most win worthy of her 7 nominations is Iris (supporting) and Eternal Sunshine (lead).

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    M
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    #1201981269

    Yeesh, I find it awfully difficult to picture Streep with an Oscar for Doubt. Perhaps Anne Hathaway could have somehow won, clearing the way for Sally Field to pick up Oscar #3 a few years later?

    Davis, of course, was runner-up for The Help. Frankly, I think she’d be winning Oscar #2 this year.

    For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!

    Field does not need a third win. Her second win was so controversial they denied her nominations when she was worthy prior to Lincoln which had an ageism narrative attached to her nearly being passed over for the role.

    I think Davis’ Oscar for Fences will be her first of two. I suspect she’ll join Streep, Lange, and Blanchett in the supporting actress winners club who upgraded to lead for second wins.

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    RobertPius
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    #1201981314

    Was Sally Field’s second win really that controversial or was it just controversial after the speech?

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    pacinofan
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    #1201981329

    I don’t see why the win would be all that controversial. She had some of the weakest competition in the history of the Oscars and she was the lead in a best picture nominee.

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