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November 24, 2016 at 5:50 pm #1201956488
Which films and/or actors are we are having way too much confidence in and the ones we are not realizing will sneak up? I think Loving is being very overestimated. It has the critics but I don’t see the Academy having much passion with it.November 24, 2016 at 5:58 pm #1201956493
I think you are completely right about Loving. In addition, I think people are overestimating Michelle Williams for MBTS. It’s not a major role and she didn’t earn a Independent Spirit nom. Then again, Mahershala Ali’s role in Moonlight is also very short…Also, I am not sure the Academy will embrace 20th Century Woman in regards to Bening and Gerwig as people think it will. Though Bening is well-known and well-respected, this role is a little strange. Also, I just don’t see Gerwig breaking through.
In regards to underestimating…I think Andrew Garfield will be nominated for Silence. It’s going to happen. In addition, Michael Shannon looks like he is too strong this year with Midnight Special, Loving, AND Nocturnal Animals to not get a nomination. I think it’ll be for the latter. Hidden Figures has the diversity factor the Academy has been criticized for not recognizing, so I think it has strong chances in many categories, including Actress & Supporting Actress (I think Spencer is the better-known, but Monae also has the buzz from Moonlight, so I don’t know which is more likely) And Sing for Best Animated Feature.November 24, 2016 at 8:30 pm #1201956520
Underestimating: Lion, Florence Foster Jenkins, Octavia Spencer, Emily Blunt, Molly Shannon, Ben Foster
Overestimating: Jackie, Isabelle Huppert, Adam DriverNovember 24, 2016 at 9:56 pm #1201956528
Underestimating: Molly Shannon, Lion, Jackie in categories besides best actress, Hidden figures in multiple categories
Overestimating: Michelle Williams, Fences, Jeff BridgesNovember 24, 2016 at 10:23 pm #1201956529
The Jungle Book is totally being underestimated!!November 24, 2016 at 10:31 pm #1201956530
We’re talking about a Larrain film, a man who’s not afraid to show his unconventional vision and wisdom and unlike many of his peers, specifically avoids dramatic confrontations in his projects that would allow it to be more mainstream. The movie is more in line with Carol and Foxcatcher in terms of how cinematic, unsentimental, personal and moody it is. So I can see it being the inspiring choice the directors branch decide to put it in this year but even it’s BP nom isn’t a sure thing. The one bad thing about preferential ballot is that it favors movies that have emotional impact on people like EL&IC over more daring/cynical ones.November 24, 2016 at 11:10 pm #1201956536
I think the drive for Jackie that posters have is the fact that Hillary Clinton had a horrible loss at the election. That voters will vote for it out of trying to be progressive and since it is about one of the most famous women in American history, unlike Carol and Foxcatcher, it has an advantage. Also helps that Natalie Portman is the frontrunner.
Hidden Figures is the biggest question mark for me. I have no idea how that’s going play out.
I also feel like Florence is being somewhat underestimated because I see a lot of Old voters falling in love with it.November 24, 2016 at 11:19 pm #1201956540
Over-estimated: Florence Foster Jenkins, Loving
Under-estimated: Arrival, Hell of High Water, Lucas Hedges (MbtS)November 25, 2016 at 12:34 am #1201956580
Over-estimated: Hidden Figures, Jackie, Loving, Manchester by the Sea
Under-estimated: Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, ElleNovember 25, 2016 at 1:09 am #1201956591
Overestimated: Fences, Naomie Harris, Michael Shannon
Underestimated: Hidden Figures, Kevin Costner, Andre Holland & Molly ShannonNovember 25, 2016 at 6:04 am #1201956643
Andrew Garfield & Adam Driver in Silence
Meryl Streep (at one’s peril)
Difficult to say at this point, but Mahershala Ali doesn’t seem like a frontrunner that will stick. By most accounts Naomie Harris has the showier role in Moonlight, but she’s up against inevitable juggernaut Viola Davis of course. Predictions for Denzel Washington for directing seem off the mark to me.November 25, 2016 at 6:30 am #1201956650
– Manchester By The Sea possible Best Picture upset
– Hell or High Water
– La La Land
I have mentioned it before, but I still have a hard time believing Oscar voters are gonna give La La Land 8-10 Oscars, as some people are suggesting.
Look at the film, and look at the voters and how they have voted in the past. the serious, heavy and important films they lean towards.