January 10, 2018 at 12:13 pm #1202463412
I think Haddish will make the final five.January 10, 2018 at 1:28 pm #1202463479
I find it very impressive that Bening got in at BAFTA, especially over Dench, who has been nominated for BAFTA for all of her prior Oscar nominations, and I thought Dench was more of a lock than even Margot Robbie. What is also impressive is that Bening got in at BAFTA over other critically lauded performances that I thought would be possible shoo-ins like Streep and Chastain, whose movies have been more visible this season and even Florence Pugh (Lady MacBeth). However, FSDDIL was released earlier in the UK than the US and Bening and Bell did press and campaigned there heavily during its release.January 10, 2018 at 2:19 pm #1202463557
Keep in mind, for the last 6 consecutive years we have had an individual get an Oscar nomination without being nominated for SAG/Golden Globe/BAFTA.
Who will it be this year?
My money is on:
– Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread)
– Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
– Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya)
– Idris Elba (Molly’s Game)
– Brooklynn Prince (The Florida Project)
If you look at the qualities of Oscar nominees who got in without SAG, Globe or BAFTA nominations, they’re at least two of three things:
1. a veteran who’s been around a long time.
2. a former nominee
3. in a film that is a Best Picture or acting front-runner.
With that in mind, I will probably say the possible suspects are:
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Tracey Letts or Lucas Hedges (Lady Bird)
Catherine Keener (Get Out)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Relative newcomers like Krieps and Prince are unlikely to get in without getting a nomination in at least one of the big precursors. That’s unheard of in the modern day awards cycle.
It’s also worth noting that most of the actors who scored Oscar noms without GG / SAG / BAFTA recognition were nominated by the Critics Choice awards:
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (Critics Choice)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (Critics Choice)
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper (Critics Choice*)
Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night (Critics Choice)
Laura Dern, Wild
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Critics Choice)
Jackie Weaver, American Hustle
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Gyllenhaal, Stuhlbarg, Haddish, and Patrick Stewart each got in at CC, but missed GG, SAG, BAFTA.
Shannon’s biggest nomination for TSOW is at the Satellite Awards, where Spencer and Jenkins were both ignored.January 10, 2018 at 3:19 pm #1202463630
What if the nominations were as such:
HaddishJanuary 10, 2018 at 6:32 pm #1202463761
I would be very happy if Sebastian Stan ends up being nominated. I don’t know over who because I did like every performance currently predicted except maybe Dafoe who I didn’t think did much, but he’s a lock. Maybe Richard Jenkins because I haven’t seen Shape yet.
Michael Shannon popping up wouldn’t be weird anymore. But he hasn’t been talked about as much as his previous nominations.
Gyllenhaal could also be a choice specially if the Franco thing happened in time for people to reconsider.
And then there’s Tiffany Haddish. She ended up only with NYC and CC, similar to Marcia Gay Harden who won NYC and got an Indie nomination (which Haddish wasn’t elegible for, so you can say her CC is her Indie nod, for example).
Having said that, this totally NOT what the thread is about. I don’t think any of the people who just showed up at BAFTA are going to be Oscar nominated.January 13, 2018 at 2:23 pm #1202466548
Fingers crossed for Michelle Pfeiffer