Good catch Emil.
This looks like a high-end commercial venture, with French-Canadian director Denis Villeneue looking to punch his studio ticket and see how that works. It could (as a Canadian film) potentially open the Toronto Film Fest, or be a Gala. My guess though is that it is a long shot Oscar film, in part because Warners has it set for 9/20, not likely where they’d set it if they smelled Oscars. (Moneyball was around that time, but was a much higher profile film).
That said, things could click for it, so nothing should be ruled out.
Yeah, the big categories seems unlikely for this genre, but based on the trailers, Jackman is giving one hell of a performance, and he is white hot from hist first nomination. And Roger Deakins cinematography is so good in this trailer, that I doubt he will miss out.
Hope it’s as good as it looks.